Ep 66 - Jon Czin on Xi, Trump, and the US-China stalemate

It’s been a consequential week for US-China relations, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump finally held their long-awaited summit in Beijing amid ongoing trade tensions, export control battles, and the fallout from the Iran war.On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution – to unpack what came out of the Xi-Trump meeting, what both sides were trying to accomplish, and where the relationship may go next.Jon gets into:Why the current US-China situation is more temporary stalemate than budding stability  China’s evolving strategy for managing Trump and the broader bilateral relationshipThe significance of Beijing’s proposed framework for “Constructive Strategic Stability”How China views US leverage – and its own leverage – in trade, critical minerals, and supply chainsHow the Iran war is shaping the broader geopolitical context for US-China diplomacyThen in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macroeconomic analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest batch of Chinese macro data, which showed a sharp slowdown in economic activity in April.The two discuss:How the Iran war and supply chain disruptions are weighing on China’s industrial sectorWhy investment activity weakened more than expected last monthThe hidden policy changes dragging on infrastructure investmentContinued weakness in Chinese consumption and consumer confidenceWhat the latest data means for Beijing’s broader economic outlook