Ep. 93: Kjirste Morrell Interview

Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again. We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of comments on a forecasting question (4:30); what Kjirste meant by the phrase "the joy of being wrong" (8:35); how to combat bias in forecasting (14:05); a couple of tricky, longer-term Metaculus questions (29:15); how many people will have set foot on the moon by 2030 (46:25); and Kjirste's experience working on the Segway at Dean Kamen's DEKA Research. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 5/14/2021)