PODCAST · news
NonProphets
by Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen.Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following:Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/E-Mail: [email protected](Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are tho
Episodes
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The 2024 Election
Episode 102 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the upcoming US presidential election, including the elements of Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys" system and the interplay of facts and narrative, before making their predictions. As always, you can reach us at...
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A.I. - When D.A.N. met Sydney
Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at...
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Ep. 100: Visits
Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at...
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Ep. 99: James Bosworth on Latin American Politics
In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on...
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Ep. 98: Milo Jones on Intelligence Analysis
In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the…
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Ep. 97: Ukraine
Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the...
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Ep. 96: NonProphets 2022 Forecasts
In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure 4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions) 6:00 Will the pandemic fade? 12:20 Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of...
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Forecasting the Pantone 2022 Color of the Year
Episode 95 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of forecasting the Pantone Color of the Year. They demonstrate their borderline peerless knowledge of fashion and design trends, as well as the "zeitgeist," before making their final…
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Triumphant Return for Some Quick Advice
Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman talk about where Atief's family should move and why
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Ep. 93: Kjirste Morrell Interview
Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again. We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of…
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Ep. 92: Forecasts Inherently Have No Value
Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the…
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Ep. 91: Get the Damn Vaccine
Episode 91 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about their experiences with the vaccine rollout and when they think things are likely to return to normal (01:40); the prospects for bipartisan legislation in US politics (37:06); and whether it depends on filibuster...
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Ep. 90: Illuminating The Final Days
Episode 90 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol. They take a victory lap for predicting one of the 2021 Pantone colors of the Year (1:35); look back to their 2016 forecasts for…
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Ep. 89: This Podcast About the Election Is Disputed
Episode 89 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US election results and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. They talk about what happened in the US election (01:51); what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia (09:26); whether polls are…
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Ep. 88: The Election
Episode 88 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the election advertising that they've experienced (00:47), before diving into the upcoming US election (07:32), including discussing QAnon, the possibility of right- and left-wing violence, and the possible effects…
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Ep. 87: Old Is New Again
Episode 87 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the breaking news about Trump's tax returns (00:52) before debating the probability of a dramatic rise in right-wing violence (21:14), and the effects of Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court in the context of Roe…
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Ep. 86: Doing the Wrong Thing
Episode 86 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (00:40), Robert (07:22), and Scott (11:29) catch up on what they've been up to over the last few months, and then discuss Camus and the effects of Covid-19 (17:38). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or...
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Ep. 85: Justin Crow Interview: Superforecaster and Social Epidemiologist
Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the...
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Ep. 84: Third Times The Plague
Episode 84 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The podcast begins with an inside view of the Good Judgment / Open Philanthropy public site where forecasts and analysis of where the US and the world will be in one year are discussed....
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Ep. 83: The Chips are Down
Episode 83 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Covid-19 virus from the perspectives of Scott in Romania (1:48), Robert in Hawaii (19:44), and Atief in Missouri (36:50). They close with two age-old questions: how many monkeys is this? (44:06); and, why wasn't...
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Ep. 82: American Democracy Under Siege (Michael Signer Interview)
Episode 82 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege (00:43); what…
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Ep. 81: Pantone 2020 Color of the Year
Episode 81 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of attempting to accurately predict the upcoming Pantone Color of the Year. As part of their conversation, they discuss the concept of a "genderless color" (3:31), the set of colors from which...
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Ep. 80: Zelensky MemCon
Episode 80 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a call from a NonProphets listener who used to help produce MemCons (record of the President's calls) in the Situation Room for the NSC. The listener reached out to us after Episode 78 with details about both what we...
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Ep. 79: A Letter to Erdogan
Episode 79 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Tyson zones (1:00), A letter to Erdogan - Trump, the Kurds and nuclear weapons (2:29), Forecasting in the time of Trump - an exercise in Kremlinology? (27:10), Moscow Mitch and now Tulsi Gabbard? (30:14), Forecasting...
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Ep. 78: DTMFA
Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is...
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Ep. 77: Implications
Episode 77 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a request for listener input on the Pantone Color of the Year (2:59), Iran and Saudi Arabia (8:47), with a detour into Russian/Ukrainian cultural cynicism (18:06), and the Trump whistleblower...
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Ep. 76: War Cry
Episode 76 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they did over the summer (01:05); why they've been less enthusiastic about following politics lately (06:03); what they think about the Democratic primary debates so far (10:49); whether the Democrats should…
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Ep. 75: Range (David Epstein Interview)
Episode 75 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range and The Sports Gene. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short (00:38); how to adapt to "wicked" learning...
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Ep. 74: Somethingtopia
Episode 74 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ethics of providing information, such as forecasts, to clients (00:45), why public information may be preferable to private when it comes to managing the risk of information misuse (13:12), and why it's so much...
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Ep. 73: Metaculus (Anthony Aguirre Interview)
Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of…
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Ep. 72: The Superforecaster's Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)
Episode 72 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview superforecaster and novelist Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series of spy novels set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels (00:39); what will...
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Ep. 71: Risk Managment
Episode 71 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss managing the risks associated with emerging technologies (00:28), what's going on in Venezuela (28:05), whether the UK may require aid in the event of a hard Brexit (32:13), as well as the concepts of a "cheese...
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Ep. 70: Mailbag (Chicago Elections, Hybrid Cars, Data Privacy)
Episode 70 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott forecast listener questions. We discuss who will win Chicago's mayoral election (01:18); whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car (11:56); and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU's GDPR data...
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Ep. 69: Marc Koehler interview
Episode 69 of the NonProphets podcast, Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Marc Koehler. Marc is the Vice President of Good Judgment Inc., in charge of government relations and co-head of analytics as well as an accomplished superforecaster. He was simultaneously the top forecaster on the internal...
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Ep. 68: Nothing Else Mattis
Episode 68 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott look back at their 2018 forecasts and forward to 2019 (2:23); the significance of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis' resignation for the US' relationship with its allies (8:57); iterated tit-for-tat games (18:00); the...
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Ep. 67: Overtaken by Events: Holiday Edition!
Episode 67 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott perform their annual ritual of predicting the next Pantone color of the year (00:21), and then discuss their predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year (20:07), both of which are now public. Overtaken by events! But…
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Ep. 66: The Next Two Years
Episode 66 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri (01:27); the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House...
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Ep. 65 Midterm Elections and the Day After
Episode 65 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Predictit (0:15); US midterm elections (7:39); why most conspiracy theories are false (23:04); how no one likes to be laughed at (27:46); the Missouri Senate race (33:02); the possibility of post-election violence...
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Ep. 64: Things Could Change
Episode 64 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss whether we should care about nukes (1:15), the difficulty of tackling big problems (4:02), The Invention of Peace, pseudo-events, cruelty, and what we care about (10:16), and national identity and immigration…
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Ep. 63: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?
Episode 63 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will...
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Ep. 62: Scared Money
Episode 62 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert, with Scott away, talk about a PredictIt deal for users, as well as a frankly fantastic contest the podcast is having for our listeners (00:10). We then discuss the upcoming midterms, including data sources that we find probative...
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Ep. 61: Space Force and Star Child
Episode 61 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they were up to all summer while they weren't podcasting. They discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended (00:58); the politicization of the administrative state (07:01); the...
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Ep. 60: Odds and Ends
Episode 60 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on what they've been up to, including Atief following the Supreme Court's upcoming Lucia vs. SEC decision (00:55), Robert attending the Hawaii state Democratic convention (16:34), a discussion of being a new parent…
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Ep. 59: PredictIt (Will Jennings Interview)
Episode 59 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Will Jennings, head of public engagement at the political prediction market PredictIt. Will previously worked in the Obama White House and for the vice presidential campaign of Senator Tim Kaine. We talk with Will...
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Ep. 58: The Fourth Age (Byron Reese Interview)
Episode 58 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Byron Reese about his new book, The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity. We talk what motivated the book (00:33); what "the Fourth Age" is (02:00); the role of ideas and culture…
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Ep. 57: Everything's on the Table (Scenarios!)
Episode 57 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott probe the limits of their new political reality with a thought experiment that they called "Everything's on the Table" (aka "Plausible/Implausible"). After discussing the rules of the game (01:01), they discussed the...
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Ep. 56: Straight Outta Chumptown
Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal...
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Ep. 55 Calculations
Episode 55 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss their Predictit account, including the class of questions on which they have been losing money (1:04), as well as how they approach gaining probative information out of Trump administration pronouncements (12:00).…
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Ep. 54: Guns, Norms, and Democracy
Episode 54 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about the impact of the Parkland shooting on US politics (01:45); the rapidly shifting Republican orthodoxy (14:32); whether democratic norms are weakening (24:51); Transparency International's 2017 Corruption Index...
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Ep. 53: Toward the Year 2068
Episode 53 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about a 1968 collection of essays speculating what 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We talk about whether it's really possible to predict the future fifty years out (00:19); the difficulty of forecasting...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen.Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following:Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/E-Mail: [email protected](Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are tho
HOSTED BY
Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
CATEGORIES
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does NonProphets have?
NonProphets currently has 50 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is NonProphets about?
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they...
How often does NonProphets release new episodes?
NonProphets has 50 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to NonProphets?
You can listen to NonProphets on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts NonProphets?
NonProphets is created and hosted by Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman.
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