EP 954 – Part 4 of 5: Ethiopia’s 2026 Harvest — Trade, Currency & Survival Risk - Matthew Thornton

Advertising Sponsor:This episode is brought to you by Arcadia Green Coffee, Colombian coffee exporters taking fresh green coffee from Colombia to the world - farm to roastery, direct.Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/arcadiagreencoffee/WhatsApp: https://wa.me/353877871523Episode DescriptionThis is Part 4 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.In this episode, we examine the downside scenario: what happens if the harvest does not perform as expected, or if exporters miscalculate demand and pricing.Matthew explains that while many farmers have already benefited from high cherry prices this season, exporters, especially specialty-focused unions and cooperatives, are operating in what he calls a survival year Those who purchased aggressively without secured markets may be forced into secondary mills, accepting thinner margins or losses. Meanwhile, larger exporters with import businesses can absorb coffee losses because Ethiopia’s export system allows them to retain foreign currency, which can be leveraged in other import-based ventures The conversation also turns to a deeper structural issue: the specialty industry often views itself through a quality lens, while much of origin trade operates through commodity and currency logic. When prices surge, farmers may deprioritize specialty differentiation. When prices fall, liquidity becomes the dominant concern.This episode is about trade mechanics, currency incentives, and what truly determines survival in Ethiopia’s 2026 harvest.Guest LinksArkena Coffee Market: https://arkenacoffee.com/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/arkenacoffee/***************************************About Map It Forward The Daily Coffee Pro is produced by Map It Forward, supporting coffee professionals globally across the supply chain.Website: https://mapitforward.coffeeMailing list: https://mapitforward.coffee/mailinglistPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/mapitforwardInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/mapitforward.coffee/Contact: [email protected]