Ep137 - Counterfactual analysis of the impact of Project NOAH on disaster risk reduction

In this episode, we talk with Mr. Jude Vito Custodio Agapito about his study on whether Project NOAH, the Philippine government's flagship disaster risk reduction program, actually saved lives. Using counterfactual analysis of hazard data from 1986 to 2024, the study compares fatalities and damages before and after operations research was embedded into the government's Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment system in 2014. While the cost of damages from typhoons and floods stayed consistent over both periods, average annual fatalities dropped by about 76%, from over 1,200 deaths per year to around 295, suggesting that the program may have saved more than 7,000 lives over the past decade.📚Reference: Agapito JVC, Rosales RML, Pascual AC, Concepcion CR, Lagmay AMFA. 2026. Counterfactual evidence on the impacts of operations research on Philippine disaster risk reduction efforts. Disaster Prev Manag. 35(6):44–63.🤝 Behind The Science Podcast is in partnership with the UP Resilience Institute