EPI 066 - The Yield Curve Narrative

A narrative is starting to build in the world of macro finance and will likely result in a potential recession. The inversion of the yield curve is what is driving that conversation; with the 2 & 5 Year-yield pushing higher than the 10-year treasury in the last week, its become an indicator tool to monitor in the current market environment. Historically, the inversion of the yield curve has proven a relatively reliable lead to the outcome of a potential recession. What will the FED need to do in the face of that outcome? The more the FED appears to take control of the narrative, the more problems seem to arise. And rightfully so, when the reality of an economy is not so simplistic, and has countless moving parts that can shift the reality of the economy in a heartbeat - not to mention the ongoing rampant inflation hitting the consumer hard on their own discretionary spending.  We also touch a little on our personal portfolios, adapting our investment themes according to that markets reality relative to both its short term and long term outlooks. And the inversion of the yield curve is likely to throw another curve ball while central banks claim the economy is strong.... The reliability of that statement, is  up to the individual to independently decide whether or not to trust the same people who claimed inflation would not be an issue and then that it would be transitory...