Episode 146: The Antifragile Investor (Part 1)

Markets can go sideways for ten or fifteen years. The CAPE ratio sits at 42. Global debt is stretched, and retail investors are piling into property, Bitcoin, and leveraged ETFs. So what happens next, and how do you position for it?In this special two-part episode, Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior lay out an investment philosophy built to work through the entire market cycle, not just the good years. Drawing on Nassim Taleb's Incerto, the Kelly Criterion, and the risk-first thinking of investors like Ed Thorpe, Steve explains what separates fragile portfolios from robust ones, and robust ones from truly antifragile ones. You'll hear why the "time the market versus time in the market" debate is a false choice, the two scenarios Steve thinks are most likely from here (a GFC-style crash, or a Japan-style deleveraging that grinds asset prices lower over ten to twenty years), and how Taleb's three categories, coffee cups, weights, and everything in between, apply to the assets sitting in your portfolio right now.Part 2 will cover how to actually build the portfolio.If you want to think differently about your money, learn more about our approach at totalmoneymanagement.com.au, or take our free investor personality assessment at totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types to find out what kind of investor you are.This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.