Episode 22: Polling the Public, with Lakshya Jain from The Argument

Public opinion surveys are important for understanding what’s happening in elections and politics more broadly. Whether it’s a party gaining in the generic ballot, a president’s approval rating falling, or Americans becoming more concerned about a particular issue, surveys help us track the state of things.A new entrant in the polling realm is The Argument. The outlet has partnered with the pollster Verasight to regularly survey attitudes among Americans and examine important changes in public opinion. To talk more about what the organization’s polling has found over the past few months, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Lakshya Jain, the director of political data for The Argument. Jain is also a co-founder of Split Ticket.They began by discussing The Argument’s polling process and goals, and how it hopes to differentiate itself in the polling field. Then the discussion turned to the sizable shifts in public opinion among important parts of President Donald Trump’s winning 2024 coalition, including worsening presidential approval numbers among young voters, Hispanic voters, and white working-class voters. They covered how to interpret these changes and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms. Moving to The Argument’s issue polling, they examined public attitudes toward transgender Americans and the political positioning of each major party regarding this group. They then talked about some of the interesting trends within The Argument’s data that might otherwise fly under the radar. This includes a look at how the different rates of answering “don’t know” between men and women connect to larger social and cultural phenomena. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com