Decision Desk HQ Podcast

Among the most-watched races on June 23 will be a group of four Democratic primaries in solidly blue New York City-based U.S. House districts. These contests feature ideological splits and/or highly salient issues that could say as much about where Democrats will be in 2028 as they do about the party in 2026. To explore these primaries and the larger political picture, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Michael Lange, a close observer of NYC’s political left and author of The Narrative Wars on Substack.Geoffrey and Michael began with the 7th District, where longtime Rep. Nydia Velázquez is retiring (2:45). This primary mainly pits progressive Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso against state Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a democratic socialist. An outgrowth of the 2020 presidential clash between Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, this race may provide lessons about how Democrats can turn out young voters like Mayor Zohran Mamadani did in NYC’s 2025 mayoral race. After this, they detoured to discuss New York’s possible pre-2028 redistricting and what it might mean for districts in New York City (12:45).They then turned to the 10th District, where Rep. Dan Goldman faces a challenge from the left by former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (18:14). Goldman is an underdog in part because his political positioning — especially his views on Israel and support from AIPAC — are a poor fit for very progressive North Brooklyn, which makes up a majority of this seat. Michael and Geoffrey shifted to the 13th District in Upper Manhattan/The Bronx, where Rep. Adriano Espaillat also faces a challenge from his left (25:50). Espaillat has built a political base from the large Dominican population in this area, but now finds himself trying to win over Black voters against his democratic socialist challenger, community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier. But Chevalier has her own issues thanks to a raft of controversial past social media posts.They closed out by discussing the Manhattan-based 12th District, left open by the retirement of veteran Rep. Jerrold Nadler (35:19). A crowded primary field includes Kennedy family scion Jack Schlossberg and attorney George Conway, the ex-husband of longtime Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway. But the two leading candidates appear to be two members of the state Assembly: Michael Lasher and Alex Bores. This race has centered on artificial intelligence, as a super PAC associated with OpenAI has attacked Bores because of his past support for regulations on AI — likely a pivotal issue in the 2028 election. They also briefly discussed the 17th District just outside of NYC, a key battleground seat in 2026 (46:04). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

With the midterms fewer than five months out, we took stock of where things stand in the 2026 race for Congress. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for power to change hands. In the House, the GOP holds a 220-215 majority that is imperiled by an electoral environment in which Democrats lead the generic ballot by around 6 percentage points. However, congressional lines have changed a lot due to redistricting.To talk about this, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Kyle Kondik, the Managing Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. They began by looking at the situation in the House of Representatives, where redistricting has left fewer competitive or potentially competitive seat (2:46). All told, Kyle estimates that Republicans gained around five to nine seats from redistricting, based on the Crystal Ball’s ratings. That means that the GOP is effectively heading into November with around 225 or more seats rather than the 220 the party won in 2024.But the fly in the ointment for Republicans looks to be the electoral environment, most easily illustrated by the Democrats’ advantage in the generic ballot (17:01). Right now, the Democrats have a big enough lead (6 or so points) to be favored to take back the House despite the GOP’s redistricting gains. Another problem for Republicans is that President Trump’s approval rating on the economy, traditionally one of his strongest issues, is actually running below his overall approval — that could lead the bottom to drop out if the GOP isn’t careful (22:10). At the same time, Democrats run the risk of having their own tea party-like moment in which they nominate weaker, out-of-the-mainstream candidates who cost them winnable seats.Kyle and Geoffrey then looked at the situation in California’s 22nd District, which illustrates some of these challenges for each side (24:56). On the one hand, Republican Rep. David Valadao only won about 41% of the top-two primary vote while his two Democratic opponents won a combined 59%. Historically, Valadao’s figure would portend defeat in the general election. However, the more progressive Democrat advanced to the general election, which might open the door to Valadao making things competitive — if that Democrat turns out to be a poor candidate.They turned to a discussion of four Senate seats, starting with North Carolina (32:05). The Crystal Ball has shifted its rating in North Carolina to give Democrats a slight edge, as former Gov. Roy Cooper is polling at about 50% with a sizable lead. Democrats may have a better shot at flipping that state now than blue-leaning Maine, where Democrat Graham Platner has faced a series of controversies (38:11). The Crystal Ball has also moved Ohio and Alaska to toss-up status, which speaks to how they are likely the Democrats’ best targets among the more red-leaning seats that the party has to flip to win a Senate majority (42:32). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

On June 9, four states held their regular primary elections. The top race was Maine’s U.S. Senate contest, where controversy-laden Graham Platner won the Democratic primary to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But there were also crowded gubernatorial primaries in South Carolina (GOP) and Maine (Democrats), plus much more in Nevada and North Dakota.At 7:30 p.m. Eastern, we kicked off our coverage of all the primary action on the Decision Desk 2026: Maine, Nevada & South Carolina Primary Livestream from Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We were joined by guest experts throughout the night to talk about what the results meant for November and beyond. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

One 2026 election seems to keep grabbing all the headlines: Maine’s U.S. Senate race. There, Democrat Graham Platner keeps making news, and usually for the wrong reasons. Reports recently surfaced that reported that Platner had sent sexually explicit texts to women who were not his wife. This is just the latest in a drip, drip, drip of controversial stories about Platner, the likely Democratic nominee to face Sen. Susan Collins. This is one of the most important Senate races in 2026, as Collins is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024.To help make sense of what’s happening in Maine, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Michael Shepherd, politics editor at the Bangor Daily News. They opened by talking about what people are saying on the ground and how the race got to this point (2:11). In the Democratic primary, Platner rose quickly and bested Gov. Janet Mills in polls and fundraising, prompting her to drop out (5:44). Platner has generated crowds in every corner of Maine and has been more willing to aggressively attack Collins, calling her “corrupt” — a campaign Mills would not run against her (10:00). But with Platner’s difficulties, Collins has ample material to use against him — and a ton of money at her campaign’s disposal to inform voters about his problems.Collins is an institution in Maine, having even won reelection in years when the state voted handily for Democratic presidential candidates in 2008 and 2020 (16:17). She’s used quality constituent services and a very town-by-town campaign apparatus to boost her standing. And her effectiveness as a senator has helped her consistently win over independent-minded voters and the persuadable middle.Given Platner’s difficulties, Democrats in D.C. and Maine are worried that there will be more skeletons in Platner’s closet that will sink him against Collins (25:55). If things do get worse for Platner, Maine Democrats could replace him as the Democratic nominee by choosing another candidate at a party gathering — but only if he first agrees to withdraw. Were Collins to win reelection, this would greatly constrict Democrats’ path to winning a Senate majority, perhaps making it impossible.Michael and Geoffrey closed by talking about two other races (37:58). Maine’s crowded Democratic primary for governor is unpredictable, especially with the use of ranked-choice voting. On the Republican side, former federal prosecutor Bobby Charles looks like the favorite, although the GOP also has an even more crowded field (43:38). They then discussed the competitive 2nd Congressional District, which is open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (48:43). Republican former Gov. Paul LePage may have the upper hand to take back the red-leaning seat, while Democrats have a competitive four-way primary. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

June is here and so are more primaries! On June 2, six states held their regular primary elections: California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.Our election night program was Decision Desk 2026: California & More Primary Livestream, presente by Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We started at 9 p.m. Eastern and were joined by guest experts throughout the night.Check out Decision Desk HQ's new Discord. It's a great place for online election nerds, and a place to talk about tonight's primaries and every other election coming up this yea This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

In the past eight years, Georgia has become a critical battleground state. That’s the case once again this year as the Peach State hosts highly competitive contests for U.S. Senate and governor. To talk about all things Georgia ahead of the state’s May 19 primary election, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Greg Bluestein, the chief political reporter at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They started with Greg’s thoughts on Georgia’s overall political situation (2:31). Greg noted some warning signs for Republicans, including the Democrats’ sweeping victories in a pair of 2025 special elections for Georgia’s Public Service Commission. They then dug into the Senate race, where Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democrat seeking reelection in a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024 (7:20). Republicans have a three-way Senate primary that looks headed to a runoff (13:51). Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are running, but so is former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has the backing of outgoing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Collins looks likely to make the prospective runoff, while Carter and Dooley are fighting for the second spot. Should Ossoff defeat the eventual GOP nominee in November, he could be a potential 2028 presidential contender (23:03).Greg and Geoffrey then turned to the gubernatorial race, where both parties have primaries likely to go to runoffs (26:45). In the Republican primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has Trump’s endorsement, but healthcare executive Rick Jackson has shaken up the race with at least $83 million in self-funding (28:40). In the Democratic primary for governor, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the favorite (38:04). However, she could find herself in a runoff against one of a number of other Democrats in the race. They closed by talking about the consequences of Georgia’s gubernatorial race as well potential redistricting at a special legislative session (47:56). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

In the past eight years, Georgia has become a critical battleground state. That’s the case once again this year as the Peach State hosts highly competitive contests for U.S. Senate and governor. To talk about all things Georgia ahead of the state’s May 19 primary election, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Greg Bluestein, the chief political reporter at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They started with Greg’s thoughts on Georgia’s overall political situation (2:31). Greg noted some warning signs for Republicans, including the Democrats’ sweeping victories in a pair of 2025 special elections for Georgia’s Public Service Commission. They then dug into the Senate race, where Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democrat seeking reelection in a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024 (7:20). Republicans have a three-way Senate primary that looks headed to a runoff (13:51). Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are running, but so is former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has the backing of outgoing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Collins looks likely to make the prospective runoff, while Carter and Dooley are fighting for the second spot. Should Ossoff defeat the eventual GOP nominee in November, he could be a potential 2028 presidential contender (23:03).Greg and Geoffrey then turned to the gubernatorial race, where both parties have primaries likely to go to runoffs (26:45). In the Republican primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has Trump’s endorsement, but healthcare executive Rick Jackson has shaken up the race with at least $83 million in self-funding (28:40). In the Democratic primary for governor, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the favorite (38:04). However, she could find herself in a runoff against one of a number of other Democrats in the race. They closed by talking about the consequences of Georgia’s gubernatorial race as well potential redistricting at a special legislative session (47:56). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Last week, the Supreme Court issued its ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which weakened the power of the Voting Rights Act to adjudicate claims of racially discriminatory redistricting. In the wake of this ruling, Republican-controlled states in the South have quickly moved to redistrict their congressional maps. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discussed these developments with Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor of Votebeat. They looked at the partisan shakeup ahead of the 2026 midterms and the longer-term ramifications of the decision.They began by talking about the overall picture following the Callais decision (2:55). The ruling is part of a redistricting “perfect storm” that combines the ongoing redistricting conflict and adds in some Southern states with majority-Black seats that could now redraw as well. The partisan consequences of the prospective new maps in the South will bring about some Republican gains in 2026. The overall redistricting arithmetic could increasingly favor the GOP, although Democrats could ameliorate this damage thanks to a blue-leaning midterm electoral environment (10:20).Nathaniel and Geoffrey then went through the Southern states that are set to redistrict or could redraw. They started with Louisiana, which is the only state with a map that the Callais decision actually deemed unconstitutional. Louisiana Republicans sound inclined to draw a map that would give them a 5-1 edge, up from 4-2 under the current lines. But surprisingly, the early scuttlebutt is that Republicans may draw one blue seat around Baton Rouge rather than New Orleans, which could endanger Democratic Rep. Troy Carter (16:20). Nearby, Alabama is positioning itself to potentially re-implement the map the state used in 2022, which gave Republicans a 6-1 edge. This would remove the second majority-Black seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures that the state used in the 2024 election (24:19).Meanwhile, Tennessee Republicans are proceeding with a new map that will dismantle the state’s only Democratic seat, a majority-Black district around Memphis held by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen (28:30). The map is drawn surgically, such that President Trump would have won 59% or more in all nine of Tennessee’s districts. From there, they discussed how South Carolina Republicans have opened the door to possibly redrawing the district held by longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn — though it is unclear if they will actually do so (33:27).They closed by talking about the long-term implications of the Callais decision and the further ratcheting up of the national redistricting conflict (38:52) Democrats are looking for ways to respond to these Republican redraws. But many Democratic-led states would need to pass constitutional amendments to enable remaps, which means they would not be able to redraw until before the 2028 election. At the same time, other Republican-run states could also respond in 2028, including Indiana, where a cohort of GOP state senators just lost primaries after opposing the Trump-backed congressional redistricting effort. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

On Tuesday, Indiana and Ohio voters went to the polls for their regular primary elections. This included contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, and a whole lot more. Beginning at 6:30 p.m. Eastern that evening, we covered the results as part of Decision Desk 2026: Virginia Redistricting Livestream from Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We were joined by guest experts throughout the night.Among this cornucopia of elections happening on May 5, the most-watched races were a slate of state Senate primaries in Indiana. There, President Donald Trump endorsed primary challengers against seven Republican state senators who last year helped foil legislation that would have redrawn Indiana’s congressional map to make it more favorable to the GOP.AdImpact reported that ad spending in Indiana’s state Senate primaries had totaled around $13.5 million, around $13 million more than any other recent cycle. That spoke to the outside money that had poured into these seven primaries. Two of the highest-spending groups, Hoosier Leadership for America and American Leadership PAC, targeted the incumbents who opposed redistricting. Both organizations were associated with Republican Sen. Jim Banks and led by Andrew Surabian, a longtime member of Trump’s political circle. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Ohio may not be the swing state it once was in presidential elections. But it will still pack a punch in the 2026 midterms. The state has a pivotal U.S. Senate race that will help decide the majority, a number of competitive U.S. House contests, and a gubernatorial contest that could also be very close. Ahead of the Buckeye State’s May 5 primary, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Jeremy Pelzer about all things O-H-I-O. Jeremy is the chief politics reporter for the Cleveland Plain Dealer, where he’s covered Ohio politics and government since 2013.They started out by discussing Jeremy’s overall view of the state of play in Ohio (2:37). Digging into the races, they looked at the Senate race between appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown, which appears quite competitive (4:25). Husted has a long career in GOP politics and has done much of what he needs to do to keep the Republican coalition behind him. Brown’s an even-better known figure, which could make it tough for him to make a case for change, though he’s been a stronger fundraiser than Husted.Jeremy and Geoffrey explored Ohio’s geography and what will matter to the electoral math, beginning with Brown’s stronger showing in 2024 compared to Kamala Harris, even as he lost reelection (12:57). Formerly Democratic-leaning blue-collar areas that have moved right, like Mahoning Valley in the eastern part of the state, will be pivotal to the hopes of Brown and other Democratic statewide candidates. But Democrats will also need to keep improving in suburban areas in and around places like the state capital of Columbus. They then talked a bit about why Ohio is a key piece of the 2026 Senate math (17:14).They then dove into some of the state’s key U.S. House contests (19:33). Longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is running in a seat that’s even redder after redistricting, which understandably drawn many GOP contenders hoping to face Kaptur in November. Republicans also aim to seriously challenge Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes, but both could be fine in a blue-leaning midterm environment (27:49). Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to make inroads in red-leaning seats like the 15th District, held by Republican Rep. Mike Carey (32:16).They closed by looking at the likely gubernatorial matchup between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, and Democrat Amy Acton, a former state health director (36:45). Despite not having a state-level track record, Ramaswamy pushed aside many potential GOP aspirants to become the party’s preferred candidate. He has been a gangbusters fundraiser who has also self-funded to a large extent, which gives him an important edge. Still, Acton has proven to be a stronger candidate than some expected and has raised a lot money herself. They then talked about the case Ramaswamy is making to Ohioans as a state leader after having become a national figure during the 2024 presidential race (45:05). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

We are about six months out from the 2026 midterm elections. That means some of the larger environmental factors that will impact the electoral playing field are getting clearer. But plenty of things are not fully settled, including public attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the economy, or the candidates that each party will nominate for key races in 2026. And as Virginia’s redistricting vote showed us this week, even the congressional maps for the midterm are not finalized. To discuss what will matter in 2026 — and just how much — Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Chris Cillizza, a longtime political journalist and independent news creator who runs the Substack and YouTube channel “So What.” Chris regularly delves into major political topics of the day, from what’s going on with the president, to the latest happenings in Congress, to major electoral developments. Chris is also part of the election night livestream team with Decision Desk HQ and Chuck Todd, which is covering results throughout 2026.Geoffrey and Chris started out with a broad overview of where things stand with the election roughly six months away (2:09). They then turned to the nationwide redistricting conflict, with the back-and-forth across the country exemplifying the nationalized nature of contemporary American politics (6:05). While redistricting will have consequences from state to state, in aggregate the changes driven by each party may roughly cancel each other out. But redistricting seems likely to make Congress even more polarized.They then moved to the president and the economic picture (18:05). They discussed how rising gas prices look likely to hurt the Republican brand in November, especially because Trump won in 2024 in large part because he was seen as a better choice for economic growth. Chris and Geoffrey then talked about Trump’s overall approval and on specific issues, including losing support among Republicans in some cases (24:35). In connection with Trump’s worsening ratings, consumer sentiment is at a modern low. Yet the president and his team may be putting its collective head in the sand when it comes to acknowledging broad economic concerns — much like President Joe Biden’s administration before it (30:27).From there, they shifted to some specific events and candidate choices that could impact the midterms. They started with a discussion of the rumors about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s potential retirement and how an event like that could affect Republican turnout (37:00). They then closed by talking about candidates in some key races, such as Maine Democrats’ likely choice to nominate Graham Platner for Senate and the Democrats’ three-way primary race in Michigan’s Senate election (41:38). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

The 2026 election cycle’s national redistricting conflict shifted to Virginia on April 21. There, voters backed a constitutional amendment that, depending on some future court rulings, could result in a Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional lines.The Decision Desk 2026: Virginia Redistricting Livestream covered all the ins and outs of the vote until Decision Desk HQ projected the result. The team effort from Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza featured in-depth analysis and guest experts throughout the night. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

This coming Tuesday, April 21, will offer the latest conflict in the 2026 redistricting wars. Virginia will hold a special election on a constitutional amendment that, if successful, would set the stage for a Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional map. Namely, the amendment would allow the state legislature to bypass Virginia’s bipartisan redistricting commission until after the 2030 census. In expectation of passage, Virginia’s Democratic-controlled state government has passed a very aggressive proposal that aims to hand Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 districts — arguably the most lopsided gerrymander in the country.To examine Virginia’s vote, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley welcomed Chaz Nuttycombe to the podcast. And because this brought two Virginians together to talk about Virginia, the pod ran on the longer side! Chaz is the executive director of State Navigate, a nonpartisan nonprofit that works to help the public navigate state-level politics. State Navigate has a number of interactives on its website tracking what’s happening in Virginia (as does DDHQ Votes). And just ahead of recording, State Navigate released a new poll measuring support for the amendment, which found Yes leading 51%-45% — a lead, but not a huge one.Geoffrey and Chaz began with an initial overview of where things stand in the redistricting vote (4:00). They then discussed the ballot language, including controversies surrounding potentially biased wording and ongoing legal challenges (12:18).Then they dug into the campaign, starting with the Yes campaign’s monetary edge in ad spending and total contributions (20:39). Geoffrey and Chaz looked over the polling of the race, including State Navigate’s new survey and many of the key findings in the poll (23:10). They then discussed what turnout changes could shift the race toward No, explored State Navigate’s estimates about the partisan makeup of the electorate, and where the early vote stands (31:30).They turned to a discussion of the makeup of the districts on the proposed congressional map (48:58). Given the aggressiveness of the gerrymander, they also talked about how the proposed lines could offer some hope for the No campaign by helping persuade some independent voters to oppose the measure (54:15). The show ended with Chaz talking about State Navigate, its offerings, and its mission (58:30). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Gubernatorial elections are a major feature of the 2026 electoral landscape. All told, 36 states choose governors in midterms, making it the main decision point for state executives around the country. To go through some of the most competitive gubernatorial contests, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley welcomed Lou Jacobson to the podcast. Lou is the chief correspondent for PolitiFact and is the chief author for the 2026 Almanac of American Politics. He’s covered politics and elections for many years, and currently writes all about these subjects on the the Almanac of American Politics Substack.They began with an overview of the 2026 electoral map and how previous midterms in 2002, 2010, and 2018 set the stage for the current situation (2:30). They then turned to some Democratic-held seats in key swing states. In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection, and looks likely to face Republican Rep. Andy Biggs in November (9:20). Michigan now looks likely to have a competitive Republican primary, and it’s set to have a three-way general election involving Democrat-turned-independent Mike Duggan, the former mayor of Detroit (15:15). They also spoke briefly about Wisconsin’s open-seat race for governor, which was a greater focus of last week’s conversation about the Badger State (21:06).Lou and Geoffrey then shifted to some key Republican-held seats that are up for grabs. They started with Georgia, where both parties have very crowded primary races, and where control of the governorship could be critical to future congressional redistricting in the Peach State (23:36). In Iowa, the likely matchup between GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra and Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand will test the state’s recent red lean (31:48). The situation is somewhat similar in Ohio, where the likely contest between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, and Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, looks highly competitive (37:58). They then looked at Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s reelection chances in Nevada against his likely Democratic opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford (40:56).They closed out by examining two states with interesting gubernatorial contests that aren’t traditional battlegrounds. They started with Kansas, where Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited and the GOP probably has its best pickup opportunity this cycle (44:40). Then they discussed the messy situation in California, where a crowded primary field has raised the possibility that two Republicans could advance to the general election, locking out Democrats in one of the bluest states in the country (49:35). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

The 2026 contest for the U.S. House of Representatives looks favorable for Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is in the low 40s, and Democrats have led in the generic ballot by roughly 5 points since November. Although the midterms are about seven months away, we also have a pretty good idea about which seats are most vulnerable for each party — especially Republicans, who are more likely to lose ground in 2026 as the presidential party. But what about some districts that are more on the periphery? In midterms, the opposition party sometimes flips seats that are pretty favorable for the party in the White House. Meanwhile, the president’s party occasionally springs a surprise even if the midterms don’t go particularly well for that side of the aisle. To talk about some potential under-the-radar races in 2026, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Erin Covey, the House Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, where she leads coverage of the electoral situation in the U.S. House of Representatives.The conversation began with an overview of the 2026 House situation and why Democrats are favored to capture a majority (3:00). Then they began to look at some races that might be more competitive than expected. They dove into two majority-Latino seats in Texas, starting with the open 23rd District, which The Cook Political Report recently moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its ratings (8:00). They then explored what’s happening in the newly-drawn 35th District, another Likely Republican seat (15:40).Moving to the east, Geoffrey and Erin examined the lay of the land in North Carolina’s 11th District, a Likely Republican seat where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection (25:23). In the Midwest, another Likely Republican seat that could be in play is Iowa’s 2nd District, which is open due to GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid (33:38). They then delved into two Colorado seats, the state’s 3rd and 5th districts, where Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank are seeking reelection, respectively (41:20). They then concluded by talking about some opportunities the GOP might have to compete for Democratic-held seats, such as California’s 13th District and New York’s 4th District (49:30). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

The 2026 contest for the U.S. House of Representatives looks favorable for Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is in the low 40s, and Democrats have led in the generic ballot by roughly 5 points since November. Although the midterms are about seven months away, we also have a pretty good idea about which seats are most vulnerable for each party — especially Republicans, who are more likely to lose ground in 2026 as the presidential party. But what about some districts that are more on the periphery? In midterms, the opposition party sometimes flips seats that are pretty favorable for the party in the White House. Meanwhile, the president’s party occasionally springs a surprise even if the midterms don’t go particularly well for that side of the aisle. To talk about some potential under-the-radar races in 2026, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Erin Covey, the House Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, where she leads coverage of the electoral situation in the U.S. House of Representatives.The conversation began with an overview of the 2026 House situation and why Democrats are favored to capture a majority (3:00). Then they began to look at some races that might be more competitive than expected. They dove into two majority-Latino seats in Texas, starting with the open 23rd District, which The Cook Political Report recently moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its ratings (8:00). They then explored what’s happening in the newly-drawn 35th District, another Likely Republican seat (15:40).Moving to the east, Geoffrey and Erin examined the lay of the land in North Carolina’s 11th District, a Likely Republican seat where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection (25:23). In the Midwest, another Likely Republican seat that could be in play is Iowa’s 2nd District, which is open due to GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid (33:38). They then delved into two Colorado seats, the state’s 3rd and 5th districts, where Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank are seeking reelection, respectively (41:20). They then concluded by talking about some opportunities the GOP might have to compete for Democratic-held seats, such as California’s 13th District and New York’s 4th District (49:30). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Public opinion surveys are important for understanding what’s happening in elections and politics more broadly. Whether it’s a party gaining in the generic ballot, a president’s approval rating falling, or Americans becoming more concerned about a particular issue, surveys help us track the state of things.A new entrant in the polling realm is The Argument. The outlet has partnered with the pollster Verasight to regularly survey attitudes among Americans and examine important changes in public opinion. To talk more about what the organization’s polling has found over the past few months, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Lakshya Jain, the director of political data for The Argument. Jain is also a co-founder of Split Ticket.They began by discussing The Argument’s polling process and goals, and how it hopes to differentiate itself in the polling field. Then the discussion turned to the sizable shifts in public opinion among important parts of President Donald Trump’s winning 2024 coalition, including worsening presidential approval numbers among young voters, Hispanic voters, and white working-class voters. They covered how to interpret these changes and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms. Moving to The Argument’s issue polling, they examined public attitudes toward transgender Americans and the political positioning of each major party regarding this group. They then talked about some of the interesting trends within The Argument’s data that might otherwise fly under the radar. This includes a look at how the different rates of answering “don’t know” between men and women connect to larger social and cultural phenomena. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Last week, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley announced he would seek reelection as an independent in California’s blue-leaning 6th District. Kiley, a two-term congressman, had been targeted by Golden State Democrats’ redistricting plan, which chopped up his red-leaning district into six pieces. But is Kiley really an IINO — independent in name only? He will continue to caucus with the GOP, and his decision to identify as an independent is clearly related to his tough electoral circumstances.The thing is, Kiley is just the latest independent attempting to effectively run as a stand-in for one of the major parties. DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by DDHQ Election Analyst Eric Cunningham to discuss this phenomenon of “fake”, “pseudo-” or “quasi-” independent candidates. Also the editor-in-chief of Elections Daily, Cunningham has dug into this trend in downballot races.They opened the conversation by exploring Kiley’s situation, including the electoral calculations that helped inform his decision to seek reelection as an independent. Then they dug into a high-profile example of a left-leaning independent: Dan Osborn, who is running for Senate in Nebraska in 2026. In 2024, Osborn ran as an independent in a fairly close race against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.Building on the Osborn example, the pair talked about three other left-leaning independents who are running for Senate in Montana (Seth Bodnar), South Dakota (Brian Bengs), and Idaho (Todd Achilles). They discussed the challenges these candidates face, including whether Democrats run their own candidate or back the independent. A one-on-one shot against the Republican nominee would at least somewhat improve these candidates’ already-low chance of success.These four independents are just the latest to run for Senate in red states. In 2022, Evan McMullin ran in Utah; in 2020, Al Gross ran in Alaska; and in 2014, Greg Orman ran in Kansas. In a different-but-related category, both independents presently in the Senate each caucus with the Democrats — Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Still, Kiley is not the only GOP candidate to attempt such a move: California’s 2018 Insurance Commissioner race also featured an ex-Republican. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

We’ve talked a great deal about redistricting in the 2026 midterm election cycle — and with good reason. Six states have drawn new maps, and more could join in soon. But looking beyond 2026, major events could shake up redistricting and reapportionment. This includes the potential end of the Voting Rights Act as we know it and major shifts in population that will affect how many U.S. House seats each state has after the 2030 census.To examine these topics, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Sean Trende, the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. Sean shared his deep well of knowledge about all things redistricting and reapportionment.They led off the conversation by examining how the conservative-dominated Supreme Court of the United States seems likely to weaken or dismantle the Voting Rights Act in the case Louisiana v. Callais. Such a decision probably would not have a huge impact on the 2026 election, but it would open the door to a fresh round of redistricting before the 2028 cycle. A number of Republican-controlled states in the South would almost certainly redraw their maps to reduce or eliminate entirely many majority-Black seats, which could then spark Democratic-led states to redistrict in response.From there, they discussed population projections for 2030 that suggest potential seat gains for big Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida, and seat losses for major Democratic-leaning states like California and New York. This could affect the battle for control of the House, but it will also have ramifications for the Electoral College in the 2032 presidential election. Red states would gain electoral votes based on the 2024 election results, and the campaign focus on the swing states would likely shift more to the Sun Belt trio of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

It’s almost primary time! This coming Tuesday, three states — Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas — will hold their regular primaries to nominate candidates for various federal and state offices. This will begin six months of primaries across 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the final races occurring in September.Of those states, Texas will host most of the high-profile races happening on March 3. To talk about the Lone Star State contests, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Gabby Birenbaum, the Washington Correspondent for The Texas Tribune. Gabby joined the DDHQ Podcast in December to talk about Texas’s electoral slate, and she returned to help clarify where things stand in the state’s major primary races.The conversation opened with the U.S. Senate race, looking at the dynamics of the three-way Republican primary involving incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn and Paxton look headed for a May 26 runoff, but don’t write off Hunt entirely. On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are facing off in a much-watched contest that looks to be quite close.Down the ballot, some U.S. House primaries have grabbed their own share of headlines. Most notably, Rep. Tony Gonzales faces a tough primary challenge in Texas’s 23rd District under a cloud of scandal regarding an alleged affair with a staffer. The staffer committed suicide last September and, earlier this week, it came out that Gonzales had sent explicit texts to her, which has led some Republicans to call for his resignation. Beyond that race, Texas’s redistricted map has precipitated a number of heated primary contests for both parties, including the Democratic primaries in the 18th and 33rd districts, and the GOP primary in the 2nd District. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Mid-decade redistricting could be a wildfire that keeps burning and just won’t go out. Six states have already implemented new maps, either via newly-passed laws or court action. But seven other states — and perhaps more — have at least some chance of drawing new lines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Much depends on various contingencies, including the passage of a constitutional amendment by voters in Virginia and the potential timing of a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court dismantling the Voting Rights Act as we know it. And beyond 2026, politicians and activists in many states, such as Republicans in Utah and Democrats in Colorado, are already making moves with an eye on redistricting in 2028. Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor at Votebeat, to examine the ins and outs of redistricting. They looked at the overall redistricting picture and the range of potential outcomes from the lines implemented so far. They then provided an overview of the states that could join the redistricting fray, including Virginia and Florida. From there, they zoomed in on the potential remaps in the Democratic-controlled states of Virginia and Maryland. They then talked about how referendums could play into redistricting beyond Virginia. This includes a GOP-backed effort in Utah to repeal the state’s redistricting rules with an eye on another new map in 2028, a citizen veto measure in Missouri to block Republican-passed legislation to establish a new map for 2026, and a push by Colorado Democrats to override the state’s independent redistricting commission and implement a Democratic gerrymander in 2028. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

In recent months, one growing political narrative is the extent to which President Donald Trump has lost ground with young men. In the 2024 election, Trump lost among 18-29 year olds as a whole, but he did better than in his past elections. His improvement among young men especially stood out because he actually carried the group as a whole, according to some studies. The explanations for Trump’s performance have ranged from negative economic views among young people to Trump’s embrace of podcasters to connect with voters.Yet recent research suggests young men have soured on Trump. One study from the left-leaning Speaking with American Men Project found that Trump’s standing among young men has declined. But is Trump losing more ground among young men than among other groups? Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Mary Radcliffe, head of research at FiftyPlusOne, to talk about Trump’s approval among young men and more broadly. She recently found that Trump’s decline among young men was not necessarily outsized compared to other groups, most notably among women.The conversation began with Mary’s article and the narrative surrounding Trump’s standing with young men. They explored the difficulties of actually ascertaining the views of this particular subgroup and the small amount of reliable polling that’s available to study young men’s attitudes. They then discussed the reality that Trump’s approval has fallen across the broad, including a similar rate of decline in attitudes toward him among both men and women. They followed this by looking at changes in Trump’s approval among groups that played an important role in his winning 2024 coalition, including independents and Latinos. Trump’s declining approval on his handling of different issues likely plays into the growing dissatisfaction toward his presidency across different groups. Lastly, they talked about broader trends in Trump’s approval and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

It’s easy to focus on the high-profile elections happening this November. But many voters will have myriad downballot races to consider, too, including two important local offices: prosecutor and sheriff. These officials play a pivotal role in implementing policing and criminal justice policies. But they also matter to immigration, as shown by recent disagreements over collaboration between local law enforcement and ICE. In 2026, there are roughly 2,400 elections for prosecutor and sheriff, which means a large share of the nation’s 3,100+ counties and county-equivalents will vote on at least one of these offices.To explore these under-the-radar elections, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Daniel Nichanian, founder and editor-in-chief of the digital publication Bolts. Nichanian and the Bolts team cover local elections and institutions that affect American politics, with a particular focus on criminal justice, policing, voting rights, and democracy. Nichanian recently put together a great guide covering which states have prosecutor and/or sheriff elections on the ballot this year, and an overview of some of the biggest races and issues at play.The conversation started with an overview of why these office are important and challenging to cover. They then discussed sheriff elections within the context of cooperation with ICE, a highly-contested debate in more Democratic-leaning places, and then the wider implications of sheriff elections for policing. Then the chat turned to prosecutors and the conflict between more reform-minded and more conservative proponents within the criminal justice system. These debates do not always wear straightforward partisan labels in the way that, say, a U.S. Senate election does. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

A big part of the 2026 midterms is the race for the U.S. Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in the GOP’s favor, Democrats must gain four seats for party control to shift. Of the races that could decide control, many will turn on the performances of high-profile women candidates. Those contests include Alaska, where Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat rest on the shoulders of former Rep. Mary Peltola, and Iowa, where the GOP’s odds of retaining the seat depend on Rep. Ashley Hinson’s political acumen. Other races will not be competitive in November, but the favored party could nominate a woman candidate who could change the look and feel of the Senate. For instance, Rep. Julia Letlow is challenging Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary, while an open-seat race in Illinois features two Democratic women contenders, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly.To explore what’s happening in these races, Decision Desk Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined on the podcast by Grace Panetta from The 19th News. As a politics reporter for The 19th, Panetta covers candidates, issues, voters, and everything else happening on the campaign trail. Panetta has written extensively about many of these Senate races, so she was the perfect person to chat with about the role women candidates are playing in the 2026 election cycle.The conversation first focused on seats that will likely have competitive elections in November and could help decide control of the Senate. These contests include Republican-held seats that are on the ballot in Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, as well as a Democratic-held seat in Michigan. The discussion then turned to seats that are safer for one party but that have interesting primaries, including Minnesota, Illinois, and Louisiana. We hope you enjoy the conversation! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

In this week’s podcast, we dug into polling, which is such a huge part of the conversation around elections. Beyond knowing who is in the lead and by how much, surveys can help us understand what issues are driving voters and what people think about the parties and their leaders. However, individual polls are subject to different forms of error that can affect their results. And pollsters can sometimes encounter challenges — think of 2016 and Donald Trump, white working class voters, and the Midwest — that can produce widespread, systematic error. So, the election community likes to track how well pollsters perform individually and as a whole.To explore this topic, we welcomed Silver Bulletin Senior Election Analyst Eli McKown-Dawson and DDHQ Director of Data Science Scott Tranter onto the podcast. We focused mainly on McKown-Dawson’s new analysis of how the polls performed in the 2025 elections and recent trends in polling error published on Silver Bulletin. We talked about what might have led to some sizable polling misses in New Jersey and Virginia, what goes into polling error and polling bias (the statistical form of bias), the choice by some pollsters to weight their samples by recalled vote, and what all this could mean for polling in the 2026 midterms.Subscribe now This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

This week, the Decision Desk HQ podcast examined the messy state of affairs in the U.S. House of Representatives. There, Republicans hold just a 218-213 majority (with four vacancies), an edge so thin that GOP absences have at times left Democrats with more voting members on the House floor than Republicans. These trying governing circumstances have only made life more difficult for Speaker Mike Johnson, who has regularly had to navigate internal conflicts within the House GOP conference, all while having only a slim majority.To dig into this topic, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Joshua Huder, a senior fellow at The Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. Huder has expansive expertise in the internal procedures, politics, and institutional makeup of the House — and how they have changed over time. Huder also his own Substack newsletter, Seat of Democracy, where he explores congressional politics, past and present. And he hosts the Georgetown GAI’s podcast, Congress, Two Beers In.The two discussed the challenges Speaker Johnson has faced, including the revolts from his left and right flank in the House GOP conference. More broadly, they examined the anti-establishment surges that have affected the politics of both parties, and how this trend has clashed with the top-down nature of the House’s legislative process. They also explored the impact of discharge petitions to push forward legislation, and how this tool to circumvent leadership has grown in use. All of this discussion included Huder’s deep knowledge of the House’s evolution as an institution, which enabled him to make comparisons with how the House functioned in the past that can help us understand today’s political situation. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Welcome to the official midterm year of 2026! Looking ahead to what could happen this November, the podcast zoomed in on the electoral situations in Minnesota and Virginia. To do this, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by J. Miles Coleman, the Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The two led off with the big news in Minnesota, where Democratic Gov. Tim Walz decided to abandon his campaign for a third term in the face of an ongoing crisis regarding government fraud. With the 2024 Democratic nominee for vice president out of the race, it looks like Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar may run, and her strong electoral track record might make her an imposing candidate for Democrats. From there, they reviewed some of Miles’s recent findings about the 2025 Virginia election that suggest voters of color who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 may have been more likely to stay home in 2025 than other voters around the state. They then turned to Virginia’s involvement in the national redistricting battle. Virginia’s state legislature is about to take up a constitutional amendment that would potentially allow the Democratic-led body to redistrict the state’s congressional districts. What will that entail and what kind of gerrymander could Democrats draw if they succeed?Subscribe now This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Happy New Year! With electoral politics briefly paused for the holiday season, Decision Desk HQ decided to do something a little different for this podcast episode. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley took a spin in the time machine, going back more than 100 years to look at the electoral career of Jeannette Rankin of Montana, the first woman ever elected to Congress.Rankin initially made her name as a women’s suffrage advocate before winning a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1916 — four years before the 19th Amendment fully gave women the vote across the entire country. Having made history as the first woman elected to Congress, she then became famous (or infamous) for voting against American entry into both world wars. Rankin served only two terms separated by more than two decades, but happened to be in the House each time the nation declared war in the 20th century.Yet a major reason why Rankin had such a long hiatus was due to mid-decade redistricting, a subject very much on our minds in the 2026 election cycle. Rankin had been elected as one of Montana’s two at-large representatives, but after the 1916 election the state legislature split the state into two single-member districts. She had to decide what electoral path to trod in 1918, eventually mounting a failed bid for U.S. Senate. It would be another 22 years before she won a place back in Congress in 1940. We explore Rankin’s fascinating electoral trajectory in this special holiday episode of the DDHQ podcast. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

It’s been a busy couple of months since we began the DDHQ Podcast. But heading into the holiday period, we decided to focus our last regular podcast of 2025 on the 36 gubernatorial contests that will be on the ballot in 2026! To explore this rich topic, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Jessica Taylor from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Jessica is the Senate and Governors Editor for Cook, so she was the ideal person to dig into all the gubernatorial action happening in 2026.We discussed the overall governor picture, where Republicans hold a slight majority of seats nationally. But with it being President Trump’s second midterm, Democrats hope to capture a majority of governorships for the first time since before 2010. They have a path, including targeting GOP-held toss-ups in Nevada and Georgia. But Republicans will have a shot at flipping Democratic-held seats in red-leaning Kansas and purple Michigan and Wisconsin. All told, it turns out that red-leaning states like Iowa might prove critical to deciding which party holds more top state executive posts after the 2026 election.Subscribe now This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Everything is bigger in Texas, including the candidate filing deadline for the state’s 2026 primaries. To help unravel what happened around Texas’s Dec. 8 filing date and what to look ahead to in 2026, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Gabby Birenbaum, the Washington Correspondent for The Texas Tribune. We dug into many of Texas’s key primaries that will take place on March 3, the potential runoffs that could happen on May 26, and the potential November ramifications of those nomination contests.There was too much to talk about, really. In the state’s marquee Senate race, Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launched her candidacy while former Rep. Colin Allred dropped down to run for a seat in the House. Meanwhile, deadline day confirmed the three-way primary for the Republican Senate nomination involving Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Plus, other would-be candidates like Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey also made last-minute changes to their 2026 plans. We also discussed some of the other recent events that will affect Texas’s 2026 electoral picture. Last week, President Donald Trump pardoned conservative Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who had faced charges of bribery, money laundering, and conspiracy. Then the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Texas’s newly-drawn congressional map would remain in place for the 2026 election, giving Republicans an opportunity to add as many five seats to their tally in Texas. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

On Tuesday, the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District drew the attention of election watchers everywhere. Naturally, then, the race in the Volunteer State vacuumed up our attention for this week’s podcast! Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by 9 percentage points, 54%-45%, to keep the 7th District in Republican hands. However, that still represented a 13-point swing to the left from the 2024 election, when President Donald Trump carried the seat by 22 points, 60%-38%.With the calendar about to turn to 2026, this special election served as a appetizer for next year’s midterm contests. To help unpack what happened in Tennessee and what it could say about the larger electoral situation, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections. They explored the special election’s high turnout, the district’s swing to the left from 2024, the higher levels of spending from outside groups, and how the result fits into broader special election trends since Trump took office. They then discussed what all of this could mean for next year’s U.S. House elections. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

One of the leading stories this year has been mid-decade redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump began encouraging Republican-run states to create more favorable congressional maps for the GOP, starting with Texas. Democrats have responded with their own redistricting moves, including a redraw in California via the voter-approved Proposition 50. This week, the redistricting saga encountered its latest twist when a federal judicial panel blocked Texas’s new map, ruling it an illegal racial gerrymander — a decision that Texas Republicans have appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.To review the redistricting drama we’ve seen so far in 2025, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Nathaniel Rakich, managing editor for Votebeat. We examined the overall redistricting picture, including how it compares to mid-decade redistricting historically and how the new lines may affect the 2026 midterm chances for each party. We then took a detailed tour of the six states that have implemented new maps, including a look the main changes in each state and the political winners and losers in each remap. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

With the 2025 election in the rearview mirror, Decision Desk HQ wanted to take a look at polling. After all, public opinion surveys play an important role in trying to understand how Americans feel about politics and how they plan to vote in elections. DDHQ tracks many major topics with our own polling averages, such as presidential job approval. To plunge into the polls, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with two cofounders of FiftyPlusOne, a polling aggregation website built by a group of FiveThirtyEight alumni: Mary Radcliffe, FiftyPlusOne’s head of research, and G. Elliott Morris, head of analytics and author of the Strength in Numbers Substack.We talked about FiftyPlusOne’s work and why polling is vital in a democratic society. We explored the challenges involved in polling aggregation, what happened with polling in 2025, and what pollsters need to watch out for in the future. The rich conversation even includes discussion of a poll that Mary and Elliott helped conduct ahead of the 2025 election and the curiously simple text message that improved their response rate among young voters. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

The 2025 election is in the books! Decision Desk HQ had all the results and a livestream to cover the vote as it came in. But now it’s time to start making sense of what happened and what it could mean moving forward. To do that, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley welcomed two of his DDHQ colleagues, Director of Data Science Michael Pruser and Data Scientist Zachary Donnini, to discuss their initial takeaways from the 2025 contests.The crew examined the broad pro-Democratic swing that occurred across most of the country. Almost every locality in Virginia swung left as Democrats cruised to double-digit wins for governor and lieutenant governor, and they even managed to win the attorney general’s race despite their nominee’s various problems. In New Jersey, Democrats rebounded from big GOP gains in 2024 to restore their large margins in many ethnically and racially diverse communities in North Jersey. And in New York City, Zohran Mamdani won the mayor’s race by turning out his core supporters and winning over many rank-and-file Democrats. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Besides the statewide contests in New Jersey and Virginia, there is another very high-profile office on the ballot next week: New York City mayor! To talk about this contest, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley welcomed Michael Lange onto the podcast. Lange is a writer, researcher, strategist, political organizer, and expert on New York City politics. He writes about NYC on his Substack, The Narrative Wars, and has produced many interesting analyses of the Big Apple electorate that are well worth your time.We talked about where the race stands, as state Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani holds a double-digit polling lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, with Republican Curtis Sliwa running in third. We also examined the NYC electorate, including “the Commie Corridor” and the “Archie Bunker” vote, and how the candidates have sought to expand their coalitions. We also delved into turnout, as this election could see the largest number of raw votes in a mayoral race since the 1989 and 1993 clashes between Democrat David Dinkins and Republican Rudy Giuliani. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Don’t look now, but New Jersey may have the closest race for governor on the ballot anywhere this November. To dig into this race, Steve Kornacki was kind enough to lend the Decision Desk HQ Podcast his Garden State expertise. Kornacki is NBC News’s Chief Data Analyst and a national political correspondent, but he actually got his start in political journalism covering New Jersey!We examined where the race stands between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, then got into a map-rich discussion of recent electoral trends in New Jersey. The state took a big swing to the right in the 2024 presidential race, especially in denser, more ethnically and racially diverse parts of North Jersey. How much Ciattarelli can build on those shifts will help determine just how close this race is — and whether he can pull off an upset in less than two weeks.You can find more from Decision Desk HQ on our Substack, where you can sign up for our free newsletters and other content! https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Virginia’s attorney general’s election has been at the center of political coverage in recent days after it came to light that Democratic nominee Jay Jones sent a series of violence-laden texts in 2022. To dig into the Virginia situation, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. We talked about where things stand in the gubernatorial and lieutenant governor races, then examined how Jones’s scandal could affect the attorney general contest. Notably, the same party has swept all three offices in four straight state elections (2009, 2013, 2017, 2021), and Democrats appear to have an edge in the governor and LG contests. However, Jones’s problems may help incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares win, even if his ticket-mates fall to their Democratic opponents. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

For our first episode of the new Decision Desk HQ Podcast, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and DDHQ founder Brandon Finnigan took a look at the 2026 Senate elections. This episode serves as an excellent primer for understanding the lay of the land in the Senate and why Republicans currently appear to have the upper hand in the race to control Congress’s upper chamber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

NewsNation anchor and national correspondent Leland Vittert joined Geoffrey Skelley (Decision Desk HQ) and Chris Cillizza (author of the “So What” Substack) for a conversation about Vittert’s new book, Born Lucky: A Dedicated Father, A Grateful Son, And My Journey with Autism. The book recounts Vittert’s life growing up, how he made his way as a journalist, and his father’s pivotal role in helping Vittert acquire the tools to navigate the sometimes unforgiving world around him.To start, we discussed Vittert’s experiences surrounding the 2020 presidential election. Most notably, we examined the time he went viral over a combative interview with a spokesperson for President Donald Trump’s campaign, and the fallout from that encounter for his career at Fox News. We then delved into Vittert’s life growing up with what we now know is autism, his work as a journalist, and the important part his father played in getting him to this point.The book is now available! You can read more about it here. Leland Vittert is the host of On Balance with Leland Vittert and serves as NewsNation’s Chief Washington Anchor. A veteran journalist, Vittert joined NewsNation in May 2021, where he has been pivotal in covering national affairs and delivering special reports across the network’s primetime weeknight newscasts. Before joining NewsNation, Vittert worked for Fox News from 2010 to 2021, starting as a foreign correspondent based in Jerusalem and later anchor and correspondent in Washington.Subscribe below and get DDHQ’s election coverage in your inbox, including The Bellwether newsletter and our polling memo! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was kind enough to invite DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley on for a Substack Live conversation. They covered redistricting, the House and Senate pictures ahead of the 2026 midterms, and presidential approval, among other things. This was the first of what will surely be many conversations now that DDHQ is on Substack! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Dear reader,Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ Substack, home to The Bellwether, our weekly newsletter devoted to the ins and outs of electoral politics. DDHQ readers will receive leading analysis of elections and expanded content offerings, so please subscribe!You can also click here to find out more about Decision Desk HQ’s work as a leading election results provider. Thank you for reading, and we hope you continue caucusing with us!Thank you for being a part of the DDHQ-verse,Geoffrey SkelleyChief Elections Analyst, DDHQ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com