Episode 29: Redistricting Chaos After Callais, with Nathaniel Rakich from Votebeat

Last week, the Supreme Court issued its ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which weakened the power of the Voting Rights Act to adjudicate claims of racially discriminatory redistricting. In the wake of this ruling, Republican-controlled states in the South have quickly moved to redistrict their congressional maps. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discussed these developments with Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor of Votebeat. They looked at the partisan shakeup ahead of the 2026 midterms and the longer-term ramifications of the decision.They began by talking about the overall picture following the Callais decision (2:55). The ruling is part of a redistricting “perfect storm” that combines the ongoing redistricting conflict and adds in some Southern states with majority-Black seats that could now redraw as well. The partisan consequences of the prospective new maps in the South will bring about some Republican gains in 2026. The overall redistricting arithmetic could increasingly favor the GOP, although Democrats could ameliorate this damage thanks to a blue-leaning midterm electoral environment (10:20).Nathaniel and Geoffrey then went through the Southern states that are set to redistrict or could redraw. They started with Louisiana, which is the only state with a map that the Callais decision actually deemed unconstitutional. Louisiana Republicans sound inclined to draw a map that would give them a 5-1 edge, up from 4-2 under the current lines. But surprisingly, the early scuttlebutt is that Republicans may draw one blue seat around Baton Rouge rather than New Orleans, which could endanger Democratic Rep. Troy Carter (16:20). Nearby, Alabama is positioning itself to potentially re-implement the map the state used in 2022, which gave Republicans a 6-1 edge. This would remove the second majority-Black seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures that the state used in the 2024 election (24:19).Meanwhile, Tennessee Republicans are proceeding with a new map that will dismantle the state’s only Democratic seat, a majority-Black district around Memphis held by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen (28:30). The map is drawn surgically, such that President Trump would have won 59% or more in all nine of Tennessee’s districts. From there, they discussed how South Carolina Republicans have opened the door to possibly redrawing the district held by longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn — though it is unclear if they will actually do so (33:27).They closed by talking about the long-term implications of the Callais decision and the further ratcheting up of the national redistricting conflict (38:52) Democrats are looking for ways to respond to these Republican redraws. But many Democratic-led states would need to pass constitutional amendments to enable remaps, which means they would not be able to redraw until before the 2028 election. At the same time, other Republican-run states could also respond in 2028, including Indiana, where a cohort of GOP state senators just lost primaries after opposing the Trump-backed congressional redistricting effort. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com