ERIC Stock: Ericsson Beat on Profit and Fell 13% — Blame AI

Ericsson (ERIC) Q2 2026 — Ericsson's Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin rose to 48.4% (Networks 50.4%, a multi-year high) and EPS met consensus, but the ADR fell ~13% — its worst earnings reaction in three years — after management warned that AI-driven memory and component cost inflation will squeeze Q3 Networks margins to 48-50%, revenue came in light, and North America declined. Ericsson beat on profit and got hammered. The reason is a genuine irony: the same AI boom that underpins its long-term bull case (more data means more network spending) is bidding up the memory and chips inside its own radios, right now. So the demand is a later story and the cost is a now story, and the market repriced for the gap. But underneath: a real margin turnaround (48.4% adjusted, Networks at 50.4%), $6.2B of net cash (a fifth of the market cap), a ~3% dividend, and a ~13x P/E. After a 13% drop, that looks oversold. Our call: a SPECULATIVE BUY, fair value ~$11.50 — and we're MORE constructive than the bearish Street, whose targets sit right around the price. THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, A CHEAP TURNAROUND THE MARKET OVERSOLD) — base-case value ~$11.50 vs ~$10.10 today. What to watch: Q3 gross margin holding at the high end of the 48-50% guide (proving the AI-cost hit is contained), North America stabilizing, and the memory-cost inflation staying a couple of quarters rather than a multi-year headwind Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.