Eyes in the Sky, Death on the Ground

Dr Oleksandra Molloy is not a soldier. But war has defined her work, reshaped her life, and heightened her fears for the West.A native of Kyiv, now based at the University of New South Wales, Molloy’s research has focused on aviation, emerging technologies, and the changing face of modern warfare. Her early work was on developing the skills of pilots.“I’ve been interested in aviation for a long time from different perspectives,” she told Powerlines.That fascination led her to drones. And nowhere has the war-fighting edge of that technology moved faster than in her birthplace, Ukraine. She has seen firsthand how large and small uncrewed systems are changing the nature of war.“The battlefield is monitored 24/7. It’s very hard to hide anywhere.”In Russia’s war on Ukraine, drone combat is constantly evolving and has shifted from large platforms to smaller, more agile ones.“We are no longer talking about the payload of 200 kilograms, but we are talking about a small, cheap, expendable drone that may be delivering a precise strike. Any large systems, including these big and sophisticated ones, have become obsolete, because anything that is moving 100 kilometers away can be easily detected and destroyed.”Drones have moved from the skies to the land.“Uncrewed ground vehicles have been one of those important assets at the front line. Why? Particularly for logistics purpose, but also for saving wounded soldiers from the front line and also for mining and demining.”At sea, Ukrainian systems have taken a heavy toll on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. And on June 1, Ukraine launched “Operation Spider’s Web,” using 117 drones smuggled into Russia to strike multiple airbases, destroying or damaging over 40 aircraft—including bombers and surveillance planes—in one of the war’s most audacious attacks. The operation, which inflicted an estimated $7 billion in damage, marked a new level of sophistication in Ukraine’s asymmetric drone warfare.“They have become a relatively cheap option for destroying multi-million and multi-billion dollar assets.”European nations are paying close attention to the war on their doorstep and are stepping up their spending on uncrewed systems.“Now there is a sense of urgency on how to develop the systems at scale. How to find the right capabilities, how to keep up with the Ukrainian forces in their development, and also how can we learn and gain that experience so we are able to protect ourselves.”But there is little evidence the Australian Defence Force has got the memo.“We don't often hear about the experience of the ADF Ukraine. We just need to keep up and see what actually matters on the battlefield.”Molloy says there is much to learn, but Australia must also consider the kind of theatre in which it will be operating.“Context matters. And understand how these systems could be integrated within our geographical location, within our capabilities and providing that additional support to legacy systems. We are surrounded by water, so obviously naval drone capabilities are very important. There has to be a balance between large and powerful systems and small and expendable ones. And most importantly, we need to invest into electronic warfare and counter drone capabilities to be able to defend our assets, our people, and our country. We need to develop the systems indigenously in Australia and spend the effort to develop that manufacturing base.”Right now, Australia is in a grey zone where the threat from China is driving a step-up in military spending but it lacks any sense of urgency. We should not waste that most precious of gifts.“The difference between Australia and Ukraine is we have time. We have time, we have resources, we have many talented people who actually are doing the work in this space and we need to really think how to leverage those resources.”China is not wasting time. Molloy says it is not just supplying drones and watching what is happening from the Russian trenches.“I think some of their instructors are actually participating in some operations, in Kursk and so forth, together with North Korean. There are orders by 2027 or 2026 to develop millions of those drones. And I think we need to watch what our potential adversaries are doing. And they are investing in these systems. They are also getting the real world experience from the battlefield. And I think that's a little bit scary.”Australia’s isolation has fed complacency, but a more dangerous world is on our doorstep and we need to rise to meet the times.“There is no longer peace mentality, and we really need to be concerned and prepare now to defend ourselves.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.powerlines.au