Farmers Need Lower Input Costs, But Trump Wants to Tariff Fertilizer AGAIN

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Fertilizer MarketsFertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costsPotash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costsLast month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.🌎 Export Flash SalesSoybeans:264,000 mt to China (25/26)266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)Corn:186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectationsMexico was the top buyerSoybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-weekGermany was the largest buyerSmall China cancellationWheat: Sales beat expectations sharplyUnknown destinations led buying🇧🇷 South America UpdateConab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmtStill a record crop if realizedThe cut reflects dry November weather and some replantingAbout 90% planted as of early DecemberFirst exportable supplies expected early JanuaryTotal exports estimated at 112 mmt🌦️ US Drought MonitorCorn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snowDrought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and INHigh Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE OklahomaAreas Experiencing Drought:🌽 Corn: 31%🌱 Soybeans: 31%🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%🐄 Cattle: 25%