Fooled by lags?
from Macro Minutes
Are markets being fooled by lags? Not unusual for this point in the cycle, some data is coming stronger and some weaker. Recently the market has taken its cue from strong labor market data which might be a mistake. It has only been 6-8 months since large-scale rate hikes started and with monetary policy lags being anywhere from 12-24 months, there is a possibility that the bond market is underestimating the timing and magnitude of the growth downturn. But the patterns are not uniform across countries and this episode examines some of the nuances. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Robert Hogue (Research), Assistant Chief Economist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategist Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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