″🟩 Forecasts for drone attacks and AI time horizons; China holds military drills around Taiwan and imposes sanctions on US arms manufacturers || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #52/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites. 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US will intervene militarily in a Latin American country in 2026, which could involve airstrikes or strikes from ships, a ground invasion or limited actions on land. Tech and AI: China is reportedly worried that AI could threaten Communist Party rule in the country but also doesn’t want to overregulate AI and fall behind in a “race” with the US. 8.6% (2.2% to 20%) chance that more than 10 people will die in a drone attack (which could involve multiple drones and either state or non-state actors) in an advanced economy (as defined by the IMF) in 2026. Conditional on such an attack, we also estimate that there is a 16% (6.0% to 30%) chance that more than 100 people would die from a drone attack in 2026. 83% (75% to 90%) [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive summary(02:03) Geopolitics(02:06) Europe(03:41) Asia(05:39) Middle East(06:40) The Americas(06:43) Latin America(09:01) United States(09:11) Africa(09:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:56) Biorisk --- First published: December 29th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/forecasts-for-drone-attacks-and-ai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.