Founders: CFTC CoT Discussion and Technical comments

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe * WHO CONTROLLED DIRECTION AND WHO INCREASED/DECREASED BETS? * WHAT DID EACH COHORT DO THIS WEEK? * WHAT DID OPEN INTEREST DO? * Personal: Bond comment WHO CONTROLLED DIRECTION AND WHO INCREASED/DECREASED BETS? Some charts by Founder Randy Brown * Day 1- dn day, OI dn 0.8k- longs close..some buying dip * Day 2- dn/doji, OI dn 3.5k- longs close.. shorts cover some * Day 3- up/doji, OI dn 1.0k- shorts close * Day 4- dn, OI dn 2k…suggests new CTA shorts got in based on size of move * Day 5- up, OI up 1.2k.. longs catch knives.. good sign??? * Day 6 - dn, OI dn 9.1k.. big players throw in towel * Day 7- up, OI dn 3.2k.. shorts cover somewhat, longs sell into strength * Day 8- dn, OI up 1.4k.. obvious fresh shorts entering market Notes: * some got out of the pool as we hit the 50 and 100 dma * we were undoing the increases in OI from august… until friday when shorts decided to play again * that is fish hook material though not excited yet.. Gold needs more shorts IMO * lets see if Day 4,5 low holds again before getting bullish (if a fishhook fails to materialize right here) * notice how the market just kind of liquidated somewhat as the 50 and 100 DMA were flirted with.. the fact we sold off TELLS you there are more longs considering selling than there are new longs with dry powder seeking to buy this level.. * The question is.. what level will they buy, and do they have to puke more before they do? * Days 7 and 8 were first time in a while “The shorts were in control” for two days in a row as they drove direction higher first then lower after.. fresh shorts (dry powder when the vibe turns) WHAT DID EACH COHORT DO THIS DOWN WEEK? * Endusers- sold/puked longs out * Producers - covered shorts, booked profits * Long Dealers- added longs on the dip * Short Dealers- covered shorts, booked profits * Long Funds - puked longs out * Short Funds- ADDED in down move * Long Macro - puked longs somewhat * Short Macro - Booked profits * Retail- puked and have more to go Notes: * normal week with one sign of a flip in dominance * the shorts added in a down move which will eventually be dry powder for a rally. * BUT this is the first day its happened.. assume they have more to sell first and will add on weakness as is typical WHAT DID OPEN INTEREST DO? * Can definitely remove that dotted line now.. The green line held Personal: * No trades this week. was biased bullish a bit too long and missed the selloff off topic.. seems they prefer a flatter yield curve at a higher level if they can get away with it.. ratchet up yield curve (broken bond ladder) then lower rates after mission is accomplished or when stocks crack. Therefore assume the whole curve will go higher.. maybe not flat but higher over the next year.. if they can get away with it…. followed by aggressive rate cuts which would re-steepen the curve at a higher long bond yield. VERY confident of this.. From 2022: //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////