GLNG Stock Q2 2026: Golar LNG Earnings - A $2.45B Ship With No Charter

Golar LNG (GLNG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 06:57 ET Thursday August 13, BEFORE the open, so August 13 IS the reaction session: opened +8.2 pct at USD55.27, closed +0.27 pct at USD51.21 on 2.4x volume.) Golar LNG printed its best quarter ever - revenue USD130.5M up 72 pct, Adjusted EBITDA USD127.4M up 159 pct - and the stock gave back 97 pct of an 8.2 pct opening gain by the close. The same release committed USD2.45B to a fourth FLNG that has no charter, in the fortnight FLNG Hilli finished Cameroon and stopped earning until H2 2027. THE CALL: REDUCE (3/5, MEDIUM - A LIVE SALE PROCESS IS THE ONE THING NO DCF CAN PRICE) — base-case value ~$34.00 vs ~$52.49 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: REDUCE, 3/5. Fair value USD34 vs the USD52.49 close, -35 pct, from a sum-of-the-parts DCF: FLNG Gimi USD1,485M at 9 pct, Hilli USD2,181M and Esperanza USD2,758M at 11 pct, less USD1,013M capex to finish them, less USD707M for the uncontracted FLNG Four, less USD450M overhead, plus USD77M of stakes = USD4,331M EV, less USD1,773M net debt, plus a USD914M commodity tranche. - THE ANGLE - A FOURTH SHIP WITH NO CUSTOMER: on August 12 Golar signed the EPC for a second 3.5 MTPA MKII FLNG at a fully-delivered USD2.45B for year-end 2029 delivery. It lifts controlled capacity 41 pct to over 12 MTPA - and it has no charter. Management puts the earnings uplift at ~50 pct, explicitly conditional on chartering it at Esperanza terms. - THE PRINT: revenue USD130.5M up 72 pct but USD0.8M under the USD131.3M consensus; Adjusted EBITDA USD127.4M up 159 pct and up 21 pct on Q1's USD105.6M; net income attributable to Golar USD38.3M after USD17.6M went to the Gimi minority; USD29M of non-cash items inside it (a USD38M mark-to-market loss, a USD7M swap gain, a USD2M disposal gain). - THERE IS NO EPS LINE: the 6-K prints revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and net income and stops. GAAP diluted attributable to Golar is USD0.37 (USD38.3M over 102.1M shares). The USD0.54 the wires carried maps to total net income of USD55.8M - USD0.547 a share - which is BEFORE the minority interest in FLNG Gimi. The 0.547 estimate it was scored against is the same basis. - THE TROUGH: FLNG Hilli's 8-year Cameroon contract ended July 27 after 156 cargoes at 100 pct economic uptime, and it earns nothing until H2 2027. USD37.4M of Q2 Adjusted EBITDA - 29 pct - was realised commodity gains under that contract. Consensus models Q3 revenue of USD80M against USD130.5M delivered, and EPS of MINUS USD0.03. Full-year EPS goes USD0.97 to USD0.53 before jumping to USD4.33 in 2028. - THE FUNDING BRIDGE: USD3.53B of committed capex - USD279M left on the Hilli refit, USD800M to finish Esperanza, USD2.45B for FLNG Four - against USD908M of Total Golar Cash and a new USD600M RCF at SOFR plus 3.00 pct for 18 months. A USD2.02B gap still to raise. Hilli is the obvious source: USD493M of sale-and-leaseback debt against USD5.7B of backlog. - THE BACKLOG AND THE MULTIPLE: USD16.6B of Adjusted EBITDA backlog - USD8.0B Esperanza, USD5.7B Hilli, USD2.9B Gimi at 70 pct - and a 2029 run-rate of USD838M. EV is USD7.13B: 17.5x trailing Adjusted EBITDA of USD407M, 14.0x the June quarter annualised. Only at 2029, fully funded, does it reach 9.8x - where Cheniere (10.0x), Excelerate (10.9x) and CCEC (9.9x) trade TODAY. What to watch: UP: a long-term charter for FLNG Four on Esperanza terms, a Hilli refinancing that releases liquidity against its USD5.7B backlog, or a bid out of the strategic review. DOWN: Esperanza slipping past Q4 2027, the San Matias pipeline financing failing, or an equity raise to fill the USD2.02B gap. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.