“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2025: Trade disruptions, US hacks China Winter Games, OpenAI not testing finetuned models.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Also Iran nuclear talks, dollar falling, trade disruptions. Executive summary Fallout from Trump's tariffs continues: trade patterns are shifting, Trump is feuding with the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the dollar is falling relative to other currencies, and US imports and exports are plummeting, as are manufacturing indicators in the US. The Trump administration continues to clash with the judicial branch about deportations without due process. The Supreme Court halted another round of deportations to the jail in El Salvador. You can read our brief on this topic here. Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. The US and Iran have concluded two rounds of nuclear talks and a third is [...] ---Outline:(00:26) Executive summary(01:25) Economy(04:54) AI and Technology(04:58) OpenAI(06:59) Other AI news(08:13) Other Technology(08:23) Bio(10:40) Geopolitics(10:43) United States(14:29) Asia(16:21) Africa(17:25) Middle East(18:00) Iran(18:44) Gaza(19:04) Yemen(19:40) Weird --- First published: April 21st, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-162025 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:<img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9d631f9-8192-44c9-842f-2cb10d47c129_1583x623.png" alt="Three bar graphs comparing performance metrics across different models for competition tasks. The graphs show accuracy percentages and ELO scores for AIME 2024, AIME 2025, and Codeforces competitions, with improvements shown across model variations." style="max-width: 100%;" />Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.