“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2025:” by Nuño Sempere

Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions. Executive summary After US airstrikes damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has so far largely held. Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei and the Islamic Republic remain in power; Khamenei is still in hiding and may not be well. Iranian officials have expressed their intent to resume the country's nuclear program, which is a sticking point for potential future negotiations with the US. Forecasters estimate an 8% (5% to 30%) chance of regime change in Iran by the end of August, and a 19% (10% to 70%) chance by the end of the year. On whether Khamenei specifically will officially be in power, their estimates are 85% (65% to 92%) [...] ---Outline:(00:15) Executive summary(01:59) Geopolitics(02:02) Middle East(02:05) Iran(08:44) Gaza(09:44) United States(09:47) Legal(10:37) Tariffs and trade(13:03) Europe(14:07) Asia(14:31) Africa(14:49) AI and Technology(18:12) Biorisks(19:21) Climate and Nature --- First published: June 30th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-262025 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.