Groundhog Strait: Hormuz, LNG and prolonged uncertainty

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets.They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.TakeawaysOngoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy marketsModeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supplyListeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcomeDiplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertaintyChapters00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite44:00 Breaking News and Continued StalemateLinksHormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact ModelDeep Dive explaining model scenariosHormuz model YouTube tutorialListener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)