Hopeful Beef Outlook

BEEF: I’m going to start with the weekly beef harvest.  Last week’s total was 512K head; the prior week was 528K head.  I don’t recall this small a weekly harvest on a non-holiday week.  Packers will continue to try and tighten availability to support pricing.  They are having some success as Ribeyes and tenderloins are moving higher heading to Labor Day.  Overall, though prices are moving lower, we should see some appreciation as we get closer to Labor Day.  Grinds and rounds are moving lower; thin meats are mixed as briskets have new support while flanks and sirloin flap continue to decline.  I think we’ve got a week, maybe two, before we see this market move higher again.  Stay ahead of your needs; product will be tight, but better values will be available.  POULTRY: Chicken market is back to moving a bit higher.  Up with Boneless skinless random breast and wings.  Tenders still showing some weakness, moving a few pennies lower.  This year’s robust chicken production growth is expected to cool off heading into fall, so this market could turn higher, but I’m not seeing anything yet.  On the avian flu report, another week, no new cases, and we will take that win every time.  GRAINS: Grains continue to decline from the surge we saw two weeks ago.  Corn closed at $4.51, down from last week’s $4.69; soy at $11.53, down from last week's $11.71, and wheat closed at $6.07, down from last week’s $6.30.  We are in the height of the growing season for corn and soy, and we do have some drought in parts of the country to deal with, but that is mostly west of the prime growing areas.  Still looks like another big crop year.  PORK: Pork bellies, they moved higher again this week, today’s close $164 up from last week’s $159.  I do think we are about at the top of this market, just looking to see when we’ll start moving lower.  Right now, I’d buy just what I need.  Pork loins are up a nickel, ribs and butts holding steady.  Once we get past Labor Day, I do expect some declines.  DAIRY: Thursday’s CME close saw both barrel and block decline 2 while butter recovers from the recent declines up 6.  We have plenty of raw material for dairy, so I don’t expect too much from this recent run. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn