How the Fed Weighs Tariff and Oil Shocks Against Soft Inflation

On July 24, 2026, President Trump announced a new global tariff, and import prices from China hit their highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, core CPI fell and the Fed's preferred PCE measure rose. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how the Federal Reserve is reconciling these contradictory signals: supply-side inflation pressures from tariffs and rising oil versus cooling domestic demand. With the fed funds rate flat at 3.63% and breakeven inflation edging down, the Fed faces a delicate balancing act. We discuss the implications for the next FOMC meeting, the role of the PCE index, and what global tightening moves like Singapore's surprise rate hike mean for the U.S. outlook. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #Tariffs #OilPrices #ImportPrices #CPI #PCE #BreakevenInflation #FedFundsRate #FOMC #GlobalTrade #SingaporeMonetaryPolicy #SupplyShock #2026Economy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo