Hyper Capex Spending | Junior Miner Pain

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665

📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🌍 This week in markets

• Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️
• Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮‍💨
• Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿
• A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉

🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle

• 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations
• 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included
• The hyperscalers:
  • Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️
• The "shovel sellers":
  • Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC 🧑‍🏭🪓
• Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light
• Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."

📊 Stocks & charts

• Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress
• Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts ✅
• Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏
• 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀

🤖 Software shock & AI disruption

• Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure
• New AI tools like Claude and "vibe coding" spooking SaaS names 💻😬
• Reality check:
  • Niche software may struggle
  • Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace

🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies

• Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k
• Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️
• Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥
• Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️

🌐 The debasement trade

• Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries
• China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉
• Key takeaway:
  • This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢
• Governments reduce debt via:
  • Inflation
  • Currency weakness

🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers

• Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected
• Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁
• Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦
  • Forward PE near 10
  • Analysts broadly constructive

⚒️ Junior miners: why it's so hard

• Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes*
• The commodity may be in the ground – but:
  • Extraction is complex
  • Capital is hard to raise
  • Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧
• Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢
• Even experienced operators fail

📢 Events & deadlines

• Power Hour – 19 February
  🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank
  • Tax-free investing beyond TFSA
  • ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28
• Important reminder ⏰
  • Many providers have early contribution deadlines
  • Don't leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute

👉 More info: justonelap.com/events

🙌 Wrapping up

• CapEx boom isn't over – but cracks are forming
• AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven
• Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving
• Stay cautious, stay curious

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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