″🟨 “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, “that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot” || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase. Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI. Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention. Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026. They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (03:11) Geopolitics (03:14) Europe (07:44) Middle East (11:58) The Americas (12:01) Latin America (13:25) United States (15:00) Asia (15:20) Africa (15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence (19:11) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: January 19th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.