ICAO's Improved Volcanic Ash Forecast

Welcome back to the Aviation Newsletter, your go-to podcast for the pulse of everything that flies. I’m Priscilla, and this podcast is powered by the team at Starrime.Whether you’re a lifelong aviation enthusiast, a frequent flyer or simply curious about the world above the clouds, we’re truly grateful to have you with us. This year, we’ll continue to bring you deeper insights, compelling stories from the industry and updates on the technology shaping the future of flight. We always welcome your thoughts and feedback in the comments. The podcast remains available in both English and Chinese.Thank you for being on this journey with us. Now, let’s explore what's making news in aviation today.新闻1：https://jtw.sh.gov.cn/xwfb2/20260121/7e9b681422d649edbc0248833a881200.htmlShanghai Low-Altitude Flight Service Center to Launch on, Suishenban App for One-Stop UAV ServicesJanuary 21, 2026From February 1, 2026, the low-altitude flight safety supervision measures jointly launched by multiple Shanghai departments will take effect, with the Shanghai Low-Altitude Flight Service Center opening simultaneously to provide one-stop services including flight applications and airspace inquiries. Shanghai has previously issued the interim measures for UAV flight safety management and defined flyable airspace, which accounts for 46% of the city's administrative area and covers the airspace below 120 meters true height in green zones. Flights of micro, light and small UAVs in this area require no application, and the rest is designated as controlled airspace.By 2025, Shanghai had nearly 800 registered UAV operation enterprises, about 220,000 real-name registered UAVs and an annual flight volume of over 3.2 million sorties, yet unauthorized UAV flights have posed safety risks. Citizens can now complete UAV registration, flight declaration and experience zone reservation via the Suishenban App. For flights in controlled airspace, applications must be submitted before 12:00 on the previous day with results available by 21:00 the same day. After approval, confirmation on the platform is required before takeoff and after landing, and an elderly-friendly mode will be launched on the platform later.Three sites including the Expo Culture Park are designated as consumer UAV experience zones, with the first two accommodating 50 aircraft each and Shanghai Botanical Garden 30. Shanghai police launched a crackdown on unauthorized UAV flights in August 2025, investigating 3,366 cases, with a sharp year-on-year rise in voluntary registration of pilots and UAV owners. A six-month airspace safety special campaign will be launched to strengthen supervision and law enforcement. Relevant departments also urged users to fly in accordance with the law to build a safe low-altitude flight environment.新闻2：https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aerospace/2026-01-15/icao-introduces-new-and-improved-volcanic-ash-forecastICAO Introduces New and Improved Volcanic Ash ForecastJanuary 16, 2026The International Civil Aviation Organization has launched an upgraded Quantitative Volcano Ash forecast information service, delivering more comprehensive analysis for aircraft operators. This service not only forecasts the location of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, but also predicts the specific quantity of ash present.The new service came into effect late last year. Before its global rollout, two out of the nine specialist Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres—those in London and Toulouse—will take the lead in providing the upgraded Quantitative Volcano Ash forecasts.Eventually, all nine ICAO-designated Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres around the world will issue detailed forecasts by combining volcano monitoring data, satellite observations, ground-based observations, aircraft observations and forecasting models. ICAO recommends that all nine centres should start issuing Quantitative Volcano Ash forecasts by November 26, 2026. Until then, conventional forecast charts will continue to be provided in parallel.This new service is capable of issuing forecasts on volcanic ash concentration and occurrence probability for airspace up to 60,000 feet in altitude, divided into layers of 5,000 feet each. The forecast data is updated every three hours and is provided free of charge to all registered users. An Aeronautical Information Circular released by the UK’s National Air Traffic Services stated that Quantitative Volcano Ash forecasts will offer higher-resolution details, presenting both a single, precise forecast snapshot for a specific time point and longer-term trend projections within the impact scope of a volcanic eruption.Matthew Hort from the UK Met Office said that aircraft operators can now use certified engine susceptibility data to volcanic ash for flight route planning. This measure will help improve operational efficiency while complying with the relevant requirements of safety management systems.新闻3：https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aerospace/2026-01-16/report-global-saf-market-reach-50-billion-2036Global SAF Market To Reach $50 Billion by 2036January 19, 2026A new study released by UK-based market analyst ID TechEx predicts that the global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market will rise to $50 billion over the next decade. By 2036, the combined annual capacity of SAF and renewable diesel—closely linked in processing—may exceed 67 million tonnes, boasting considerable overall industrial growth potential.Last year, the UK and EU successively introduced SAF-use mandates, establishing mandatory market demand for this low-carbon fuel. Eve Pope, the report’s author, stated that with the advancement of global decarbonization and further implementation of relevant regulations, SAF demand will keep rising steadily.Nearly a dozen SAF production pathways have been officially approved worldwide. The mainstream hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) process mainly uses used cooking oils, animal fats and greases as feedstocks. However, the total supply of such feedstocks is limited, with a noticeable supply gap expected around 2030. Emerging pathways like alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) can effectively fill the gap. LanzaJet’s facility in Georgia, USA, officially launched commercial ATJ production last year, with an annual capacity of 9 million gallons, becoming the world’s first large-scale facility of its kind. Pope noted that the high-cost challenge of new processes needs to be gradually addressed through technological breakthroughs and improved regulations.新闻4：https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2026-01-19/fractionals-banner-year-help-global-ops-finish-strongFrax’s “Banner Year” Boosts Global Bizav Ops FinishJanuary 19, 2026Argus International’s latest TraqPak report shows global business aircraft operations ended 2025 strongly, with a 4.2% year-over-year (YoY) rise in December. North America grew 2.1% that month, while Europe posted its eighth straight YoY gain at 1.3%. Argus expects this momentum to continue this month, with North America up 3.8% YoY and Europe 1% higher.Travis Kuhn, Argus senior vice president of software, said December’s data met expectations, wrapping up a year of strong growth in North America and globally. In 2026, focus remains on large-cabin aircraft, Part 91 activity (general aviation operations conducted under the U.S. Federal Aviation Regulations), and the fractional market’s robust growth.In North America, 11 of 2025’s 12 months saw YoY gains, except February (compared to 2024’s leap year). Fractionals had a “banner year”, rising 8.4% YoY in December; Part 135 (on-demand commercial air charter services) edged up 1.6%, while Part 91 (non-commercial general aviation flights) dipped 0.2%.By aircraft, midsize jets led December growth (4.4%), followed by light jets (2.7%) and turboprops (0.8%). Large jets fell 1.2%, with Part 135 large-cabin ops down 5.6%, while light-jet fractionals surged 9.8%.Europe’s 1.3% gain was driven by large-cabin (5%) and midsize jets (3.9%), offsetting turboprop and light-jet declines. Elsewhere globally, ops soared 11.1%, with all aircraft types up—light jets led at 20.8%.The audio and content of this podcast shall not be used for AI model training or any other purposes. That’s all for this episode of Aviation Newsletter. Thank you for listening. Podcast by Jovie. Sound Edited by Priscilla. Aviation Newsletter is brought to you by the Starrime team. You can catch our podcast on all major podcast platforms. We also look forward to seeing your comments. See you soon.