India Trade Deal: White House Rhetoric or WIN for Farmers??

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade DealThe Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil.India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy.🌽 Grain MarketsGrain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel.Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region.🚢 Export InspectionsUS corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year.Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments.Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year. 🥩 Tyson FoodsTyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027.In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability. 🇧🇷 Brazil SoybeansBrazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million. 🚜 Farm Aid TalksLawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions.She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.