IPO Mania

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus prospective trillion-dollar IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, he argues public markets face unprecedented IPO valuation “indigestion.” He challenges the belief that IPOs are easy money driven by hype, limited supply, or forced index buying, citing history of large drawdowns after major IPOs and warning about post-lockup selling. He also notes private-company markups boosting reported earnings at mega-cap tech firms. His central message: IPO mania distracts from fundamentals and ignores risk-reward symmetry; “free money” doesn’t exist, and disciplined long-term investing matters. 00:00 Welcome Back Update 00:42 Why Record Early 02:18 SpaceX IPO Setup 05:00 Valuation Shockwave 08:00 IPO Pop Myth 09:38 Index Inclusion Hype 12:02 Hidden Earnings Impact 13:31 Ask Better Questions 17:16 Private To Public Shift 19:34 No Such Thing Free Money 20:47 Discipline And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com