The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bvLEBZ In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recaps a post–three-day weekend market rally with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up over 1%, while the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.47%. He notes TIP spreads show reduced inflation expectations even as longer yields imply stronger real growth, arguing the market can’t simultaneously justify Fed hikes on rising inflation expectations and claim the market is wrong as expectations fall; he also discusses futures pricing that still implies mostly one hike. He highlights market weakness as rotational rather than systemic, with communication services and tech leading and defensives lagging. Economic discussion includes disappointing June job growth and downward revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate driven by falling participation. He flags Florida housing supply, price cuts, and loss-making sales as signs prices were too high, contrasts with prolonged China home-price declines, and reviews steady oil, strong year-to-date midstream performance, and upcoming client reporting and geopolitical headlines. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:46 Market Open Recap 01:34 Rates and Inflation Signals 03:31 Will the Fed Hike 05:40 Rotation Not Rout 07:29 Economic Data Check 09:27 Florida Housing Warning 12:28 China Housing Contrast 13:02 Energy and Midstream Update 14:40 Week Ahead and Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vddsCn In a midyear 2026 Dividend Cafe holiday episode, the host reviews surprises and themes shaping markets: despite the “Mag Seven” down about 2%, the S&P 493 is up roughly 15–16% and the overall index about 10%, reflecting a major rotation toward value, smaller caps, and sectors like industrials, utilities, and energy. Another surprise is the two-year Treasury yield rising from ~3.4% to nearly 4.25% as rate-cut expectations faded, flattening the curve without derailing equity valuations. He discusses AI “vulnerabilities,” noting hyperscalers’ surging CapEx and financing, dispersion across AI-related stocks, and froth signaled by a parabolic semiconductor run and tech’s heavy S&P weight, alongside speculation in meme stocks and levered single-stock ETFs. Economically, tariffs were partially removed, labor data remains mixed, M&A/SPAC activity is strong, energy and small caps have worked, housing has softened, and he reiterates disciplined, fundamental, value-oriented investing. 00:00 Holiday Weekend Welcome 00:36 Midyear Market Setup 01:21 Mag Seven Surprise 03:27 Rates Rise Yet Stocks 04:40 AI Theme Check In 05:28 Capex And Cash Flow 08:08 Valuations And Dispersion 09:50 Semiconductor Froth Warning 12:03 Speculation Beyond Crypto 14:36 Economic Tug Of War 17:14 M&A And SPAC Revival 18:26 Other Themes Scorecard 20:07 Midyear Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000 expected) with prior-month revisions lower, alongside a slight dip in unemployment to 4.2% driven partly by a falling labor force participation rate (61.5%, lowest since 2021). Rate-hike expectations fell sharply, with Fed futures moving to a 50/50 chance and markets pricing the Fed on hold; Szytel notes a 25 bps move is less important than AI CapEx, margins, earnings, employment, and inflation. Other data included jobless claims at 215K, average hourly earnings at 0.3%, and factory orders down 1.3% in line. 00:00 Holiday Welcome 00:33 Odd Market Snapshot 00:55 Payrolls Surprise 01:57 Rates and Rotation 02:48 No Hike Question 04:02 Other Data Points 04:35 Wrap Up and Wishes Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a down, rotation-driven market day from West Palm Beach, with the Dow near flat, the S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq weaker amid a sharp semiconductor sell-off (down 5–10%) even as some software and communication services names rose. He cites strong Korean AI chip export growth (70% year over year) but suggests investors may be pricing semis for perpetually outsized growth and reacting to signs of a peak growth rate. Inflation commentary helped rates ease slightly and the yield curve steepened marginally, though the 10-year Treasury ended around 4.48%. Economic data included ADP private payrolls at 98K (below expectations), ISM manufacturing at 53.3 (expansion), and weak construction spending, reflecting housing softness tied to higher rates. He previews a holiday-shortened week and Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report. 00:00 Market Open Recap 00:24 Semis Selloff Explained 00:49 Korea Chip Demand Peak 01:34 Rates and Fed Talk 01:53 Index Closes and Yields 02:08 Economic Data Rundown 02:53 Housing Softness 03:31 Rotation and Small Caps 03:48 Jobs Report Preview 04:28 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY). 00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale 01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade 02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks 03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets 04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs 05:51 Economic Data Roundup 06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google’s first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon’s exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index performance supports rotation over correction, and questions whether stock and bond markets are truly pricing Fed rate hikes despite high futures-implied odds; the 10-year ended flat at 4.37%. He reviews Iran-US ceasefire uncertainty and Supreme Court activity, including sending the Lisa Cook firing dispute to lower court for due process while upholding an FTC firing. He flags bipartisan interest in taxing/data-center limits, discusses a likely housing bill with limited impact versus state/local barriers, cites rising supply-chain cost indicators, weak new-home sales and falling prices, notes Fed balance-sheet growth, oil at $70.50, and upcoming JOLTS and jobs data (Thursday). 00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead 02:12 Market Recap and Rotation 04:17 Fed Hike Debate 07:04 Geopolitics and Supreme Court 10:03 Data Centers and Housing Bill 12:59 Economy Housing and Fed Sheet 15:14 Energy and Jobs Week 16:05 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4v7DfvO From Grand Rapids, David Bahnsen reflects on a speech and borrows Abraham Lincoln’s “last best hope” language to argue that markets—properly understood as broad venues of human exchange, entrepreneurship, and capital formation, not merely the stock market—are inherently forward-looking declarations of optimism. He contrasts market incentives with media and political incentives that often reward negativity, and contends that entrepreneurs and investors with “skin in the game” demonstrate belief in a better tomorrow by turning ideas into solutions that meet human needs. Bahnsen urges defenders of free enterprise to resist dehumanizing markets into charts, ratios, and GDP-only talk, emphasizing the human realities of risk-taking, labor, innovation, and profitably providing goods and services. He previews a mid-year 2026 report for next week ahead of the Fourth of July and the nation’s 250th anniversary. 00:00 Welcome From Grand Rapids 00:36 Lincoln Last Best Hope 03:10 Markets As Hope 03:51 Not Just The Stock Market 05:18 Entrepreneurial Incentives 09:16 Risk And Future Focus 10:11 Humanizing Economics 14:23 Capital Tools And Portfolios 17:32 Closing And Next Week Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases: May PCE inflation met expectations (0.4% headline, 0.3% core; core PCE 3.4% YoY), Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, jobless claims beat expectations, durable goods fell as expected, and personal income and consumer spending exceeded forecasts, with five of six items better than expected. He highlights dividend growth using a 2000 S&P 500 example where a 1.2% yield grew to about 5.5% cash-on-cash over 26 years, and discusses private credit redemption gates, diversification, and software-sector stress as a key risk versus a systemic collapse. 00:00 Market Snapshot 01:03 Economic Data Rundown 02:36 Value Rotation Drivers 02:45 Dividend Growth Power 04:36 Ask TPG Private Credit 05:11 Run on Bank Explained 06:49 Wrap Up and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a Wednesday session that began with a recovery bounce led by technology as interest rates and WTI fell, but the rally fizzled and selling in tech resumed while value names held up better. He says markets are digesting valuation pressure with stocks trading around 22–23x earnings and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could affect oil prices. He highlights the 2s/10s spread flattening from about 80 bps earlier in the year to about 26 bps, suggesting slowing growth and potential Fed policy risk as inflation remains a concern; markets imply a high chance of at least one rate hike by year-end. The key data point was weak May new home sales (580k vs 640k expected) and elevated unsold new-home inventory at 9.4 months amid high mortgage rates. 00:00 Market Bounce Fizzles 00:44 Valuations and Oil Risk 01:35 Yield Curve Warning Signs 02:00 Fed Policy and Rate Hike Odds 03:15 Listener Question on Spreads 04:03 Housing Data Miss 05:11 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea’s KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a rare reversal of decades-long chip price declines due to supply-demand imbalance, valuations still matter. On the economic front, flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing surged to 55.7, the highest in a little over four years, and services also beat expectations, supporting an improving growth backdrop tied partly to data-center CapEx. He addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar losing reserve status, arguing no viable replacement exists, citing dollar dominance in FX (90%) and global reserves (57%) versus the euro (20%). 00:00 Summer Market Check-In 00:31 Global Tech Sell-Off 01:38 Semis Valuation Reality 02:01 AI Chip Demand Shift 02:48 PMI Data Highlights 03:43 Dollar Reserve Status Fears 04:32 What Could Replace Dollar 05:53 Reserve Currency Numbers 06:32 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vxzpNy David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from Grand Rapids during the Acton Institute Symposium, noting a relatively quiet day that allows more market focus. The Dow rose 148 points while the S&P fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33% amid weakness in communication services and mega-cap names. He highlights strong year-to-date energy performance, surprising small-cap outperformance, and argues much of the market’s gain is concentrated in AI/AI-adjacent and energy. Bahnsen cites speculative behavior in the SpaceX IPO, including extreme trading volume, limited float, and a sharp decline from recent highs. Bonds sold off with the 10-year at 4.51% and the 2/10 spread flattening to 28 bps from ~80 bps. He shares an anecdote about Allbirds rebranding to “Smartbird” to pivot to AI, covers UK political instability, Iran-US talks, pending US housing legislation, mortgage rates, Fed hike probabilities, Alan Greenspan’s death at 100, and oil falling to $75.19 as Hormuz uncertainty persists. 00:00 Welcome and agenda 01:24 Market close snapshot 02:19 Sector leadership and breadth 03:06 Small caps surprise strength 03:49 SpaceX IPO mania 06:23 Rates and yield curve shift 07:13 AI bubble anecdote 08:57 UK politics and US policy 09:59 Fed odds and Greenspan 11:08 Oil and energy outlook 12:06 Wrap up and reminders Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations alone, citing Bill Ackman’s SpaceX-related quote as symptomatic of circular reasoning about value. Bahnsen argues the risk paradigm is shifting as companies move from low reinvestment and buybacks toward heavy capex, more borrowing, and potential equity issuance. He highlights NVIDIA and Broadcom stocks lagging despite strong revenue growth as possible signs of over-discounted narratives, and points to extreme SpaceX valuation as a sentiment indicator. He also describes a Fed leadership shift toward a more constrained approach that may tolerate froth coming out of risk assets, concluding investors should prioritize rational, defensible portfolios tied to operating performance and dividend growth. 00:00 Summer Intro and Holiday 00:57 Is This the Top 02:33 Valuations Aren't the Trigger 04:45 The Market Vibe Problem 06:13 Ackman Quote Warning Sign 09:27 Risk Paradigm Shifts 11:59 NVIDIA and Broadcom Signals 14:32 SpaceX Valuation and Mood 16:19 Fed Regime Change 19:53 Do the Right Thing 22:19 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 trillion days earlier after a 17–18% drop) and contrasted it with Amazon and Microsoft profitability versus SpaceX’s $19 billion in sales and a $9 billion loss. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 226,000 (four-week average 223,000). Bond yields reflected further curve flattening: the 10-year fell to 4.45% while shorter maturities rose. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 Market Rally Snapshot 00:44 Sector Winners and Losers 01:07 SpaceX Valuation Reality Check 02:33 Jobless Claims Update 02:54 Yield Curve Flattening 03:28 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:10 Fed Meeting Recap 01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance 01:55 Five Fed Task Forces 02:44 Reaction Function Critique 04:17 Market Selloff and Yields 05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown 06:02 Economic Data Check 06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO. 00:00 Market Recap Overview 00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot 01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence 02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally 03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals 04:07 What Drawdown Means 05:02 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led while energy fell, small caps continued to outperform, and the 10-year yield held near 4.47%. He notes key unknowns in the Iran deal (Hormuz terms, enforcement, uranium, funds). Economic and policy updates include May industrial production up 0.1%, falling homebuilder sentiment (35), and housing affordability bill uncertainty. He previews the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, cites the ECB’s first hike in over three years, discusses lower oil and gasoline prices, answers a question on dividend growth returns, and closes celebrating the Knicks’ first title in 53 years. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:02 SpaceX IPO Mania 03:11 Markets Rally and Rotation 05:27 Iran Deal Unknowns 07:28 Economic and Policy Updates 09:13 Housing Sentiment Check 10:01 Central Banks and Fed Week 11:05 Oil and Gas Price Moves 11:50 Dividend Growth Q&A 13:37 Knicks Championship Moment 15:31 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus prospective trillion-dollar IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, he argues public markets face unprecedented IPO valuation “indigestion.” He challenges the belief that IPOs are easy money driven by hype, limited supply, or forced index buying, citing history of large drawdowns after major IPOs and warning about post-lockup selling. He also notes private-company markups boosting reported earnings at mega-cap tech firms. His central message: IPO mania distracts from fundamentals and ignores risk-reward symmetry; “free money” doesn’t exist, and disciplined long-term investing matters. 00:00 Welcome Back Update 00:42 Why Record Early 02:18 SpaceX IPO Setup 05:00 Valuation Shockwave 08:00 IPO Pop Myth 09:38 Index Inclusion Hype 12:02 Hidden Earnings Impact 13:31 Ask Better Questions 17:16 Private To Public Shift 19:34 No Such Thing Free Money 20:47 Discipline And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal after a broad sell-off tied to Iran war rhetoric gave way to gains on news of progress toward a deal, with the Dow up about 900 points, the S&P 500 up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq up 2.25%. He notes meaningfully lower interest rates (10-year down 9 bps to ~4.45%) and oil’s reduced sensitivity to Strait of Hormuz headlines as shipping reroutes and supply adjustments develop. Economic data included a hotter-than-expected headline May PPI (1.1%) but cooler core PPI (0.4%) alongside slightly worse initial jobless claims (229k). He highlights earnings growth concentration in energy (+117%) and technology (~60%) versus weak growth in consumer discretionary and financials, and responds to a college grad’s question by framing AI as a tool, emphasizing human trust and expressing optimism about job opportunities. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 Market Reversal Rally 01:38 Rates and Oil Calm 02:41 PPI Inflation Breakdown 03:52 Jobless Claims Update 04:05 Earnings Sector Split 05:48 AI and Entry Jobs 07:21 Closing Remarks 07:37 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

From The Bahnsen Group’s West Palm Beach office on June 10, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off driven by a continued rotation out of overvalued tech/semiconductors and later by news the U.S. would resume strikes on Iran, after an initially encouraging CPI report helped markets rebound mid-morning. The Dow fell 953 points (1.87%) to session lows, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and Nasdaq down 2%. Headline CPI for May was 0.5% (4.2% year over year), while core CPI was cooler at 0.2% (2.9% year over year), which he views as encouraging amid strong growth and employment. He notes oil rose but markets seem more desensitized as supply chains adapt. He also answers that splitting between a dividend growth portfolio and the S&P 500 is not a hedge due to high correlation; true hedging comes from asset allocation across stocks, bonds, alternatives, real assets, and cash. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 01:26 CPI Surprise and Fed Focus 03:13 Middle East Risks and Oil 03:50 Oil Market Adapts 04:29 Ask TBG Portfolio Hedging 05:08 Real Hedging Asset Allocation 06:00 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach on a volatile market stretch driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data, renewed tech weakness, and Middle East uncertainty. The Dow rose 86 points while the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 1%, as equal-weight S&P outperformed cap-weighted by over 100 bps and the 10-year yield fell to 4.52%. He notes the tech sector’s nine-week 47% rally is seeing froth and sharp daily swings, alongside widening market breadth and sector rotation. Szytel urges investors to focus on fundamentals rather than popularity and dismisses warnings of simultaneous “cycle” peaks as largely unknowable and hindsight-driven. Economic updates include slightly softer NFIB optimism (still near historical average), a narrower April trade deficit to $55B, and existing home sales up 3.2% to about 4.2M. 00:00 Market Rollercoaster Recap 01:18 Tech Selloff And Rotation 02:16 Stick With Fundamentals 03:16 Ray Dalio Cycle Warnings 04:45 Quick Economic Calendar 05:39 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fE0HN7 Brian Szytel fills in for David on Dividend Cafe, recapping a mixed market day: the Dow fell about 80 points while the S&P 500 rose ~0.3% and Nasdaq ~0.8%, reflecting a rebound in tech after Friday’s sharp chip-led selloff following a nine-week, 47% tech rally. A much-stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172,000) pushed bond yields higher (10-year ~4.57%) and shifted Fed futures toward pricing possible rate hikes, with inflation still elevated and employment resilient, though labor participation remains low at 61.8% and small business hiring plans are weak. He reviews Middle East escalation and oil around $91, notes pullbacks in silver, gold, and Bitcoin, and argues their lack of cash-flow tether increases volatility. He highlights data-center capex and a bullish natural gas/pipeline thesis, and previews a coming episode on IPO mania and extreme revenue multiples. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:15 Market Recap and Tech Rebound 01:11 Rates Inflation and IPO Rules 02:51 Metals and Bitcoin Volatility 04:31 Middle East Tensions and Oil 05:21 Jobs Report and Fed Outlook 07:13 Energy Demand and Natural Gas Thesis 08:05 Wrap Up Knicks and Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4g30PWo This special episode of The Dividend Cafe features David Bahnsen’s 2026 commencement address at Pacifica Christian High School of Orange County, introduced by his daughter and graduate Sadie. As a co-founder and trustee of the school, Bahnsen shares faith-informed life advice centered on the school’s emphasis on thinking well and living well, urging graduates to reject perpetual negativity, victimhood, and fatalism about the economy, AI, or personal trauma. He argues that people are not defined or owned by hardships and can choose optimism, responsibility, and joy, including avoiding “doom scrolling” and building healthy habits and relationships. He challenges parents and adults not to spread cynicism and calls graduates to be “builders” who pursue hope, peace, and purpose in Christ. 00:00 Welcome and Special Episode 01:05 Why This Commencement Speech 02:32 Faith Theme and Setup 03:00 Sadie Introduces Her Dad 05:17 Opening Remarks and Pacifica Vision 07:10 High School Nostalgia and Culture 09:03 Think Well and Live Well 10:46 Reject Victimhood and Negativity 12:14 Today Is the Best Day 14:12 Healing Beyond Trauma 16:08 Choose Optimism and Agency 18:30 Be Builders Not Destroyers 19:02 Charge to the Graduates 20:27 Love and Final Blessing 21:44 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a market recovery day after a prior sell-off, with the Dow up 874 points, the S&P modestly higher, and the Nasdaq slightly lower due to a broad semiconductor decline led by a major custom AI chipmaker falling about 15% despite revenue growth of roughly 200% year over year, as guidance failed to meet lofty expectations. He puts the AI boom in context, citing about $1 trillion in annual hyperscaler and global AI capex—far exceeding the late-1990s fiber buildout pace—and notes additional spending needed in utilities to power data centers, emphasizing the U.S. lead in capital and scale. He warns that parabolic charts and IPOs priced at extreme revenue multiples require discipline, and argues this environment favors active management and diversified allocations beyond AI stocks. He also notes higher-than-expected initial jobless claims (225k vs. 215k) and a downward revision to U.S. productivity (0.3 from ~0.6). 00:00 Welcome and Market Recap 00:34 Semiconductor Selloff 01:55 AI Capex Boom 03:43 Valuations and Fundamentals 04:53 Active Management Case 06:04 Economic Calendar Check 06:27 Sign Off and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel of The Bahnsen Group recaps a broad market sell-off (Dow -620, S&P -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.9%) after nine straight weeks of gains, noting there was no major new catalyst beyond slightly higher rates, higher oil, and ongoing Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran. Year-to-date performance remains positive (Dow ~+6%, S&P ~+10%, Nasdaq ~+15%), and economic data was generally strong, including better-than-expected ADP private payrolls (122 vs. 110) and solid services readings. He highlights continued resilience in labor demand and some increased entry-level and AI-related hiring. Historically, nine-week winning streaks have often been followed by positive returns over 3, 6, and 12 months, though higher 10-year yields around 4.50% could cap risk assets. He adds the Fed may need to raise rates later this year if inflation stays high despite strong employment, while oil futures imply prices returning to the 70s over time. 00:00 Market Snapshot 00:37 Why Stocks Sold Off 01:25 Economic Data Check In 01:54 Jobs and AI Hiring Buzz 03:07 Nine Week Rally Context 04:15 Rates and Fed Outlook 05:10 Oil Inflation and Wrap Up 05:41 Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel shares a late-day market update with the Dow up about 250 points, the S&P slightly higher, the Nasdaq flat, and the 10-year yield unchanged at 4.45%. He highlights a stronger-than-expected JOLTS report showing roughly 731,000 more job openings than consensus, lifting openings to about 7.6 million, the highest in two years, with gains notably in consulting and professional services—countering fears that AI is collapsing hiring. He argues AI may shift entry-level skill requirements but supports productivity and investment over time. Addressing a question about younger investors relying on Bitcoin for retirement, he cites Ned Davis Research (1973–2025) showing dividend growers compounding ~10.2% versus ~7.7% for S&P equal weight, ~4.2% for non-payers, and negative returns for dividend cutters, recommending dividend-growth principles and warning Bitcoin’s volatility and lack of cash flows make it ill-suited for funding liabilities. 00:00 Market Snapshot Today 00:41 Jobs Openings Surprise 01:19 AI and Hiring Reality 02:47 Bitcoin vs Dividend Growth 03:17 50 Years of Dividend Data 04:23 Building Evergreen Investing Habits 04:48 Why Bitcoin Fails Liabilities 05:34 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3RD5fcA This Monday Dividend Cafe reviews a mostly routine market update: after May’s strong gains (S&P 500 up over 5% in May and 10.7% YTD), stocks opened lower but finished higher with tech leading and utilities selling off; the 10-year yield ended flat at 4.46%. The episode highlights record household equity allocation, elevated valuations across large and small caps (Russell 2000 up 70% from its 2025 low), and a Goldman index showing concentration/valuation/rally conditions similar to 2021 and 2000. It notes inflation-adjusted IPO fundraising plans from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic exceeding 300 combined internet IPOs from 1999–2000. Iran’s renewed Strait of Hormuz blockade threats lifted oil ~6%, Florida filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, manufacturing ISM rose to 54, rent growth slowed, and futures imply 50% odds of a rate hike with no cuts expected. Friday’s episode will feature the host’s graduation commencement address. 00:00 Intro 01:23 Market Recap and Valuations 04:51 IPO Mania and Tech Froth 05:42 Geopolitics and Policy Updates 06:50 Labor and Manufacturing Data 08:30 Housing Inflation and Fed Odds 09:44 Energy Oil and Midstream 10:38 Week Ahead and Friday Twist 11:32 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4wQ3FUF From the Reagan Library during a week of speeches, David Bahnsen discusses the politicized debate over Federal Reserve independence following Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair and the recent Trump–Powell conflict. He argues the Fed is not constitutionally independent: Congress created it in 1913, set its mandate (including via Humphrey-Hawkins), requires semiannual reporting, and presidents appoint governors who serve staggered terms and cannot be fired without cause. Bahnsen notes monetary policy is inherently political because it affects prices, employment, and government borrowing, and he cites historical Fed–Treasury coordination in the 1990s crises, 2008 (TARP/AIG), and 2020 (CARES Act). He calls for Congress to clarify the Fed’s legal structure and increase oversight, supports practical independence from political pressure, and criticizes both election-driven rate cuts and Phillips-curve-driven tightening. 00:00 Intro to Today's Topic 01:41 Warsh Pick and Market Reaction 03:08 Why Fed Independence Matters 05:37 Trump Quote on Independence 06:11 Fed Origins and Legal Structure 08:46 Why Monetary Policy Is Political 10:22 Crisis Coordination Examples 13:35 Do We Want Independence 15:25 Congress Oversight and Reform 17:11 Warsh Expectations and Fed Fixes 19:49 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this Dividend Cafe market update, Brian Szytel reviews a rotation day where the Dow rose 182 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat, with the 10-year yield around 4.48% and Brent crude down nearly 5%, easing inflation and rate expectations amid ongoing US-Iran deal speculation. With little new economic data ahead of a heavier slate tomorrow (including PCE), he compares today’s AI-driven enthusiasm to the late 1990s internet boom, noting similar multiple expansion themes and index concentration, but also differences in valuations and how closely recent market returns have tracked earnings growth after the 2022 selloff. He urges vigilance as the bull market matures and argues dividend growers have historically outperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, supporting a “both/and” portfolio that combines dividend growth with reasonable AI exposure. 00:00 Welcome 00:21 Market Snapshot Today 00:55 Quiet Economic Calendar 01:11 Late 90s vs Today 01:59 Valuations and Returns 03:09 Cycle Risks and Vigilance 03:51 WSJ Question on Dividends 04:20 Why Dividend Growers Win 05:39 Both And Portfolio 06:28 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps the first trading day after Memorial Day as markets mostly rose despite fluid US-Iran geopolitical headlines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh record highs while the Dow finished slightly lower after recovering from deeper losses. He notes strong rallies in semiconductors and AI-related tech, warning of potential exuberance as charts look parabolic, alongside lower oil prices and a drop in the 10-year yield to 4.49%. Economic updates included consumer confidence at 93 (above expectations) and a modest softening in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which he attributes to affordability pressures but suggests a 2006-style collapse is unlikely due to supply constraints and high homeowner equity. He also addresses why S&P 500 dividend yield is lower, discusses the nuances of buybacks versus net share issuance, and explains a preference for rising dividend income over buybacks. 00:00 Welcome Back Overview 00:27 Geopolitics And Market Reaction 01:02 Tech Rally And Exuberance 01:36 Oil Rates And Deal Odds 02:38 Record Highs Year Context 03:09 Economic Data Confidence Housing 03:39 Housing Market Why Softening 04:29 S&P Dividend Yield Question 06:03 Buybacks Versus Dividends 06:58 Wrap Up And Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R9QgGV In this Friday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen explains why data centers have become a major economic story, tracing their evolution from 1990s CPU-based server facilities to 2010s cloud-driven hyperscale warehouses and today’s AI-focused GPU centers that require far more power, cooling, and infrastructure. He argues data center construction and related spending may have accounted for roughly 80% of last year’s GDP growth, even as other real estate and industrial activity has been muted, drawing an analogy to the shale/fracking boom. Bahnsen supports data centers and future productivity potential but opposes federal efforts to override local zoning, warns against cronyism, emphasizes the need for a stronger public relations case, and highlights investment implications in adjacent areas like power, water, natural gas, and pipelines. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:52 Why Data Centers Matter 01:43 Three Eras of Data Centers 03:51 AI Shift to GPUs 05:42 Data Centers Driving GDP 08:29 Future Productivity Payoff 09:32 What Growth Is Missing 10:12 Fracking Analogy and Backlash 12:15 Localism Versus Federal Override 14:57 PR Playbook Five Points 17:23 Investing Wisely in the Theme 19:35 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a positive market turnaround from Miami Beach after Hightower leadership meetings, with the Dow up about 280 points, the S&P up ~15 bps, and the Nasdaq up ~10 bps; year-to-date, the Dow is up ~5%, the S&P ~9%, and the Nasdaq ~13%. Rates were little changed with the 10-year around 4.56%, and WTI oil was slightly down amid reports of a potential Saudi-linked development in the Iran conflict. He discusses persistent core inflation across CPI, PPI, and PCE as demand growth outpaces supply growth alongside rising money supply, while maintaining the thesis of a 1% real Fed funds rate but with higher inflation expectations (now ~2.5–3%) implying a higher terminal Fed funds range. Economic data included slightly better housing starts (~1.5M), in-line jobless claims (209k), strong flash manufacturing PMI (55.3), and slightly softer services PMI (50.9), and he explains why markets focus on results versus expectations. 00:00 Welcome and Updates 00:52 Market Close Recap 01:44 Inflation and Fed Outlook 03:32 Today Economic Data 04:30 How to Read Data 05:33 Wrap Up and Thanks 05:53 Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

From Miami Beach at a Hightower summit, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market rally (Dow +645, S&P 500 +1%, Nasdaq +1.5%) driven by falling interest rates (10-year down 8 bps to 4.58%) and oil (WTI down ~5%) amid hopes for progress in the U.S.-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. He focuses on how expectations moved from ~60 bps of Fed cuts this year to pricing closer to a potential hike, a global shift also seen in Europe, and notes the tight correlation between oil prices and rate expectations. With markets up ~7–8% and earnings up ~13–14%, multiples have compressed, and higher-rate expectations reduce the chance of re-expansion. He also addresses high profit margins, citing tech-heavy, asset-light index composition as a key driver while still expecting eventual mean reversion via economic slowing and sector rotation. 00:00 Miami Beach Intro 00:26 Market Rally Recap 00:50 Oil And Rates Link 01:16 Rate Cut Expectations Shift 02:17 Multiples And Valuation 02:52 Upcoming Economic Data 03:04 Margin Mean Reversion 03:26 Why Margins Stay High 03:56 How Reversion Happens 05:08 Wrap Up And Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4nErXgi David Bahnsen records Monday’s Dividend Cafe from Miami, noting a prior deep dive on U.S. national debt and then reviewing markets after an S&P 500 “melt up” led by semiconductors, the Mag Seven, and AI, followed by a pullback tied to sharply rising bond yields, with the 10-year near 4.6% and higher yields a potential catalyst for equity weakness. He flags poor market breadth, mentions a $67B Dominion–NextEra utility merger connected to data-center power demand, and highlights AI’s dominance in new high-yield, investment-grade, and venture funding plus global index concentration in semiconductors. He also covers U.S.–China announcements (Boeing planes, agricultural purchases, tariff oversight), Iran uncertainty, industrial production gains, weak homebuilder sentiment, incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh amid no-cut expectations, and oil near $106 with limited rig-count response. 00:00 Miami Intro and Debt Recap 00:55 Market Pullback and Yield Spike 03:52 Breadth Warning and Utility Merger 05:04 AI Concentration and Momentum Risk 07:43 US China Summit and Iran Tensions 09:47 Economic Data and Fed Outlook 11:46 Oil Surge and Rig Count Reality 12:55 Ask TBG and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4d5naRq David Bahnsen discusses U.S. national debt after total federal public debt surpassed 100% of GDP, defining it as $31.27T in Treasury securities versus $31.22T GDP, distinct from state/local debt, intergovernmental debt, and unfunded liabilities. He explains who holds Treasurys (foreign holders, the Fed, U.S. households, and banks/pensions/insurers) and why Treasurys serve as the global risk-free rate, rooted in confidence in repayment supported by U.S. economic strength and taxing authority. Bahnsen argues the key problem is persistent deficits (~6% of GDP) growing faster than the economy, projecting debt near $50T by 2040, driven mainly by entitlement spending rather than military, fraud, or insufficient taxation. He says growth is necessary but not sufficient, warning reforms will involve pain, and closes by advocating diversified, valuation-conscious dividend growth investing as an attractive risk/reward approach. 00:00 Why Debt Matters 02:43 Crossing 100 Percent 03:43 Debt Definitions 06:14 Who Owns Treasuries 08:42 Why Treasuries Work 14:14 What 100 Percent Means 17:38 Deficits Keep Growing 20:09 What Caused It 27:08 Hard Choices Ahead 29:13 Investor Takeaways 32:47 Dividend Growth Close 33:20 Thanks And Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, May 14, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market gain (Dow +370, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.9%) with the 10-year Treasury closing near 4.48% and argues the 4.50% level is not a meaningful “line in the sand,” noting rate pressure tied to oil above $100 amid Iran-deal uncertainty. He summarizes Trump’s two-day meeting with China’s President Xi as generally positive, with Xi raising Taiwan and Trump not engaging. Markets continue a “wall of worry” melt-up driven by an AI capex/productivity boom, while Q1 tax refunds ($202B vs. $179B last year) and about $100B in refunded tariffs (about one-third already returned) add stimulus, though both reflect timing of taxes extracted and refunded. Strong earnings compressed valuations (S&P ~22x to ~21x), with Middle East tensions and energy prices creating Q2 uncertainty and a moderate bull-bear ratio (~2.2:1). He addresses a question about sharing ideas on media, emphasizing TBG’s client relationship and evolving portfolio management as the core value. Economic notes: retail sales in line, jobless claims slightly higher but in line, and import/export prices higher with exports rising more. 00:00 Market Snapshot 00:25 Rates Oil And Geopolitics 01:48 AI Boom And Wall Of Worry 02:21 Refunds And Tariff Rebate Boost 03:45 Valuations Earnings And Sentiment 04:49 Sharing Ideas Versus Client Value 06:42 Economic Data And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day on Wednesday, May 13: the Dow fell about 67 points while the S&P rose nearly 0.6% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%, led by semis even as many software names sold off; rates and energy prices ticked higher amid ongoing Middle East unrest and uncertainty around a ceasefire. The key economic event was a much hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index, with headline PPI up 1.4% (vs. 0.7% expected) and core PPI up 1.0% (vs. 0.3%), leaving year-over-year headline at 6% and core at 5.2%, driven largely by services and broad demand, with tariffs, stimulus, and lower interest rates also cited. He notes these inflation readings complicate Fed policy as Warsh arrives and Powell’s term ends the 15th. The Ask TBG segment explains time value of money and why longer horizons can justify higher volatility for higher expected returns. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:18 Tech Leads and Rates Rise 00:37 Middle East Tensions and Oil 01:15 Hot PPI Inflation Surprise 02:21 What’s Driving Prices 03:24 Fed Constraints and Policy Outlook 03:48 Ask TBG Time Value Money 04:58 Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets after recent all-time highs, noting the Dow slightly positive while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, with year-to-date gains still strong. He explains that high-momentum semiconductor and tech names sold off as longer-duration stocks reacted to higher interest rates, driven partly by rising energy prices; the 10-year yield moved up to about 4.45% and expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have faded. He reviews the latest CPI report: headline inflation came in as expected at 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, while core CPI was slightly above expectations at 0.4% and 2.8%, with a shelter-data quirk cited. He discusses how elevated oil and gasoline prices tied to Middle East tensions could pressure consumers and earnings, though consumer balance sheets and corporate earnings remain strong. He also notes the NFIB small business survey near 95 and addresses a question about Kevin Warsh’s investment disclosures, dismissing concerns as overblown. 00:00 Market Recap Snapshot 00:51 Momentum Stocks Pullback 01:20 Rates Rise on Oil 01:56 CPI Breakdown Explained 03:17 Energy Shock and Consumers 04:20 NFIB Small Business Read 04:40 Warsh Fed Chair Controversy 06:11 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Resx8f From New York City, this Monday Dividend Cafe covers markets’ growing desensitization to Iran-related news even as oil nears $98.50, the 10-year yield rises to ~4.41%, and major indices sit at all-time highs. The S&P 500 appears expensive across valuation metrics, with dividend yield near a historic low (~1.08%), highlighting reliance on price returns versus cash income. The host argues earnings are currently driving markets, but notes a caveat: “other income” was 34% of net income, boosted by hyperscalers marking up private AI holdings. He reviews sector performance (energy best, communication services worst), policy items (possible reconciliation bill ideas like indexing capital gains to inflation; Virginia redistricting ruling; SEC exploring semi-annual reporting), economic data (115k jobs; weak manufacturing; low consumer confidence), housing trends, Fed leadership transition to Kevin Warsh, and rising longer-dated oil price expectations. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:57 S&P Valuations Warning 03:56 Dividend Yield at Lows 05:53 Iran Risk Ignored 07:47 Earnings Driving Markets 08:23 Earnings Caveat AI 09:54 Geopolitics Headlines 10:32 Policy and Taxes Update 12:34 SEC Reporting Shift 13:00 Jobs and Consumers 14:21 Beef Tariffs Note 14:40 Housing Market Pulse 15:17 Fed Leadership Change 15:32 Oil Curve Backwardation 16:20 Ask TBG and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QMkXSl David Bahnsen analyzes Rupert Murdoch’s 2019 sale of major 21st Century Fox entertainment assets to Disney for $71.3B, emphasizing not the politics of the parties but the business logic and investing takeaways. He contrasts Disney’s struggles since the deal with Fox’s stronger stock performance, arguing the outcome reflects capital intensity and duration risk: Disney bought scale and IP to compete in streaming, requiring heavy reinvestment amid intense competition and limited margin of safety, while Murdoch kept Fox’s news and sports assets (Fox News, Fox Business, broadcast and sports rights) as more durable, real-time, less disrupted businesses with higher margins. Bahnsen connects this to dividend growth investing as a shorter-duration equity profile that “gets paid now,” helping de-risk unknowns versus long-duration, capital-heavy bets like streaming content. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 01:10 Polarization Disclaimers 03:32 The 2019 Fox Disney Deal 05:13 Stock Performance Aftermath 06:48 Disney’s IP Playbook 08:25 Murdoch Keeps News Sports 10:59 Streaming Wars and Capital Risk 12:52 Capital Light Durability Lesson 15:17 Duration Risk and Dividends 18:16 Dividend Growth Takeaways 19:30 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports a modest market pullback with the Dow down 313 points, the S&P 500 down about 0.3%, and the Nasdaq slightly lower, alongside a small rise in yields (10-year around 4.38%) and oil up about 1%, while year-to-date gains remain strong. He highlights the ongoing impact of stimulus via legislation enabling advanced expensing, encouraging corporate investment with lasting effects on profitability. Economic updates include initial jobless claims rising to 200k from 189k but still very low, Q1 productivity at 0.8 versus 1.4 expected, and construction spending up 0.6% in March. In Q&A, he explains high margins through index composition toward higher-margin firms, a shift to services, and operating leverage from productivity and post-COVID pricing power, and contrasts US economic advantages with Europe’s fragmentation and vulnerability to cheaper Chinese competition. 00:00 Market Recap Today 00:16 Why Markets Pulled Back 00:57 Year to Date Snapshot 01:09 Stimulus And Capex Boost 02:09 Economic Data Roundup 03:29 Q&A Margins At Highs 04:08 Three Drivers Of Margins 05:18 Europe Vs US Competition 06:13 Politics And Wrap Up 06:34 Final Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports a strong market follow-through day, with the Dow up 612 points, the S&P 500 up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq up 2%, driven largely by a ~7% drop in WTI oil on positive Iran deal developments, which also pushed the 10-year yield down 7 bps to about 4.35%. Earnings season is going better than expected with positive CapEx/AI themes, dividend increases, and upbeat guidance; private credit results have also beaten expectations despite negative media narratives. He notes the market’s year-to-date gains (Dow ~4.25%, S&P ~8%, Nasdaq ~11%+) and observes that only about half of S&P names are above the 200-day moving average, though semiconductors look frothy and expensive. He highlights ADP private payrolls of 109,000 vs. 99,000 expected and wage growth of 4.4% for job stayers and 6.6% for job changers. He explains that prices still move when U.S. exchanges are closed due to global listings and near 24-hour futures trading. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:49 Earnings Season Strength 01:42 Valuations And Internals 02:16 Semis Froth Check 03:01 Oil And Macro Risks 03:20 ADP Jobs And Wages 03:57 Why Markets Move After Hours 05:10 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports stocks higher (Dow +356, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%) with bonds quiet and the 10-year at 4.42%, drifting up on Middle East turmoil and higher inflation expectations tied to energy prices. Oil continues to whipsaw amid geopolitical risk between the U.S. and Iran, including limited U.S. military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and some fire exchanged. He says equities are holding up because S&P 500 earnings are strong: about 60% have reported with revenue growth near 10%, earnings growth around 27%, and record margins above 20% helped by a more tech-heavy index. Economic data was mostly positive: JOLTS job openings at 6.8M, new home sales at 682K, and ISM Services at 53.6. He also explains Fed currency swap lines as a longstanding liquidity tool supporting the dollar’s reserve status. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:30 Rates and Oil Whipsaw 01:19 Why Stocks Hold Up 02:18 Economic Data Check 03:22 Fed Swap Lines Explained 05:02 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42MhQwc David Bahnsen reviews a modest market pullback amid escalating Iran-related rhetoric and Strait of Hormuz risks: the Dow fell 557 points, the 10-year yield rose to 4.4%, and oil jumped above $105 while energy was the only S&P 500 sector up. He notes the unusually fast rebound from March volatility and points listeners to prior analysis on corrections vs bubbles and AI. In policy news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure a rescue and may face Chapter 7 liquidation. He discusses midterm dynamics favoring GOP Senate odds, very low initial jobless claims (190k), steady ISM manufacturing (52.7) with weaker employment, and travel-agency employment as a disruption case study for AI. CapEx is increasingly concentrated in large-cap tech/AI while small business investment plans hit a 2009-low. He covers administration frustration with Powell, futures implying little chance of cuts, and growing scrutiny of Fed independence. He cites Exxon on inventories masking supply stress and notes OPEC+ developments, midstream strength, and flat US rig counts. 00:00 Market Jitters and Iran 02:16 Correction Recovery Context 03:47 Sector Moves and Energy 04:04 Spirit Airlines Policy Fallout 04:56 Midterm Math and Senate Outlook 06:42 Jobs and Manufacturing Pulse 07:25 Travel Jobs and AI Disruption 08:55 CapEx Concentrated in AI 10:08 Fed Politics and Rate Path 11:46 Fed Independence and Swap Lines 13:02 Oil Inventories and Hormuz Impact 14:44 Energy Earnings and Rig Count 15:45 Wrap Up and Viewer Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4w45BZc David Bahnsen discusses why market drawdowns are normal and distinct from bubbles, using 2026 S&P 500 moves (down ~9% peak-to-trough, then a sharp rebound to up ~5% YTD) to argue markets are behaving typically despite war-driven narratives. He distinguishes frequent corrections from rarer bubble bursts and critiques the incoherent swing from “apocalypse” to “mania” framing. Bahnsen outlines three investor responses—market timing (impractical), buy-and-hold (endure), and embracing volatility through dividend growth and reinvestment—emphasizing asset allocation built for investor temperament and cash-flow needs. He applies historical bubble psychology (Kindleberger’s stages) to AI, predicting mixed outcomes: some hyperscalers and AI-related firms will disappoint or fail, while valuable companies may survive valuation resets. Key takeaways include inevitability of future corrections, prudence via diversification and limited AI exposure, and potential selective opportunities after any AI-driven downturn. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 02:05 Year-to-Date Market Whiplash 04:45 Corrections Are Normal 08:11 Three Ways to Respond 12:20 Embrace Volatility With Dividends 14:10 Manias vs Bubbles 16:12 AI Bubble Risk and Diversification 23:27 Kindleberger Bubble Stages 26:42 Seven Investor Takeaways 29:05 Closing Philosophy and Farewell Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews a strong Thursday market rebound, with the Dow up 850 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up about 1%, driven mainly by earnings, including a “Mag Seven” report that lifted the world’s largest search engine about 9% (a roughly $400B one-day market-cap gain). Economic data were supportive: initial jobless claims printed 189 versus 214 expected, personal spending was in line, personal income beat expectations, and March PCE inflation matched forecasts at 3.5% (3.2% ex-energy). GDP came in at 2.0% versus 2.3% estimated, with expectations for revisions and a Q1 composition heavily driven by equipment spending and IP investment tied to data centers and AI. He discusses the Fed holding rates, the politicization around Powell, and Kevin Walsh beginning as Powell’s term ends May 15. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:19 Big Tech Earnings Surge 00:59 Jobs and Inflation Data 02:08 GDP Print and Revisions 02:46 Fed Leadership and Politics 04:31 Powell Policy Critique 05:24 What Drove Q1 GDP 06:34 Closing and Weekend Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day with the Dow down 280 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were flat, as blue chips lagged and tech was positive. Treasury yields rose (10-year up 7 bps to 4.42%; 30-year briefly above 5%) alongside higher oil prices (WTI up ~8%, Brent up ~1%) amid Middle East tensions. He highlights three crosscurrents: the UAE leaving OPEC and its implications for oil-price control and potential benefits to U.S. shale; the FOMC holding rates with Powell signaling no cuts this year, inflation risks, unusual four dissents, and Kevin Walsh set to lead the Fed starting May 16; and “Mag Seven” earnings (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) shaping sentiment as overall earnings growth runs ~15.1% YoY. He also addresses real estate divergence (Class A diversified vs weaker markets), notes strong durable goods orders and steady housing starts, and says the S&P is up ~5% YTD with a modest upside bias despite volatility.| 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:32 Oil Surge and Rising Rates 00:54 UAE Exits OPEC 02:31 Fed Decision and Dissents 03:34 Mag Seven Earnings and AI Spend 04:25 Real Estate Divergence Explained 05:14 Durables and Housing Data 05:44 Rangebound Outlook and Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market close on Tuesday, April 28, with tech and the NASDAQ down about 0.9% while the Dow was flat and the S&P 500 fell about 0.5%, driven by AI concerns and competition after OpenAI missed numbers amid market-share losses to Gemini and Anthropic. He notes the importance of sector divergence and warns that semiconductors alone are about 17% of the index, nearing the combined weight of several major sectors. Treasuries were flat, while oil surged (WTI up ~3.7%, Brent over 104 and WTI near 100) on ongoing Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, potentially weighing on GDP and global growth. He addresses record margins as largely reflecting index composition shift toward higher-margin tech. Economic updates: Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.9% in February, consumer confidence beat expectations in April, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was 3. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:31 AI Tech Selloff 01:19 Oil Spike Geopolitics 01:55 Semis Index Concentration 03:17 Record Margins Explained 04:45 Key Economic Updates 05:39 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ued1rl David Bahnsen delivers a “normal” Monday Dividend Cafe covering the weekend’s major news—an assassination attempt tied to the White House Correspondents’ Dinner that ended without fatalities and had no market impact—then recaps mostly flat markets (Dow -63; S&P/Nasdaq slightly up) amid unusually extended semiconductor trading. He notes the 10-year yield near 4.3%, sector moves, and elevated oil closing near $97 alongside an Iran proposal involving reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for delaying nuclear talks. Bahnsen highlights M&A skewed toward mega-deals, retail ETF flows chasing recent performance, and discusses a potential federal convertible loan to Spirit Airlines. Economic updates include healthy jobless claims, a pickup in wage growth for job changers, sharply slowing home price appreciation, expectations for a Walsh-led Fed as Powell’s term ends, and a focus on Mag 7 earnings—especially AI capex plans. 00:00 Welcome Back Monday 01:14 Weekend Breaking News 02:43 Market Wrap Today 03:11 Semis And Seasonality 04:42 Mergers And Retail Flows 05:58 Iran And Oil Shock 06:52 Spirit Airlines Policy 07:39 Jobs Wages Housing 09:45 Fed Outlook Midstream 10:17 FDI Versus Policy 11:17 Big Tech Earnings Week 11:50 Closing And Contact Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com