Iran Ceasefire is a Joke

Complete and utter chaos, as Donald Trump claims Iran has caved, the ceasefire is in effect, and the Strait of Hormuz is open. None of this is true.There is still massive fighting going on. Iran just attacked four Arab neighbors. The Strait of Hormuz is closed for the foreseeable future. And even when it reopens, Iran says maybe it’ll let ten ships through over the next two weeks. Maybe not. Normally, 80 to 100 ships a day go through. Oh, and Iran now says it’ll charge a toll. Can you smell the victory?As for the ceasefire, it’s a mess. Iran attacked Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain this morning. It also attacked a key Saudi oil pipeline running from the Gulf to the Red Sea, basically Saudi Arabia’s escape hatch around Iran. Israel continues to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says if Israel keeps hitting Hezbollah, then Iran won’t agree to the ceasefire. Israel says Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire because Hezbollah never agreed to it.Meanwhile, Trump claimed last night that Iran sent back ten demands, and that he was basically fine with most of them, which is why the ceasefire supposedly went into effect. But he also said Iran had better open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally. Then Iran released its demands publicly, and said, fine, here’s what Trump just agreed to. They included full US reparations, lifting all sanctions, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, and a full US troop withdrawal from the Middle East.Trump’s people then claimed the list was fake. Trump attacked CNN. Brendan Carr, that MAGA troll, threatened CNN too, even though he has no jurisdiction over CNN. But it wasn’t fake. CNN got it from the Iranians, and Iran published the demands. They’re real. They’re horrific. So did Trump agree to most of them? Who knows.Then Trump put out his own fifteen demands, and claimed, no, no, no, I meant Iran agreed to my demands. Iran said no, it didn’t. Even Fox News walked through Trump’s demands on air and kept saying Iran hadn’t agreed to any of it.What a mess.And it gets worse. Iran says it’s not actually reopening the Strait of Hormuz at all, at least not yet. And even then, it’s not exactly an unconditional reopening when it happens, which Trump promised us. To wit: Iran now says it’ll charge a toll, two million dollars a ship or a dollar a barrel. And every ship has to register with the Iranian military, or it will be destroyed. And it may not reopen for another day or two. And when it does, maybe Iran will allow ten ships over two weeks. Usually it’s 80 to 100 a day.This is a disaster. Before we invaded, the Strait of Hormuz was open to everybody. Nobody got charged. It was free transit through one of the world’s most important waterways.So ,Trump gets asked about Iran’s outrageous claim that it now controls the strait and will charge tolls. And he says this morning, yeah, yeah, maybe the US and Iran will both charge a toll and split the money! So now the US is partnering with Iran to pirate a global shipping lane and split the profits. Our new BFF, the gay ayatollah.Trump didn’t just TACO. He caved on everything. This is one of the biggest American military defeats in history. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe