CyberDisobedience - by John Aravosis

(And weird, I couldn’t get the show to start normally - and it did do something funky with the view angle. No idea why. Sorry!)On tonight’s show I’ll be discussing the continuing Trump Reflecting Pool debacle, and how the story keeps getting more absurd: the supposed 300-foot gash, the box cutter claim, tire damage, hydrogen peroxide, a dead duckling, runaway algae, Trump insisting the pool lining is “so strong” you couldn’t cut it with a knife, and now taxpayers potentially being on the hook because Trump says it wasn’t the contractor’s fault. We’ll also talk about the bizarre new security around the pool, CCTV, police roaming the area, people reportedly being arrested for touching the water, and the National Guard yelling at a Swedish TV crew.Then I’ll get into the latest on Iran: the Strait of Hormuz threat, Iran agreeing again to IAEA inspections, the temporary lifting of 40-year-old oil sanctions worth around $10 billion, Qatar snubbing JD Vance, and warnings that oil could spike as high as $135 a barrel if there isn’t a lasting deal. And of course, the cost to Americans keeps rising, with Moody’s putting the taxpayer and consumer hit from the war at at least $132 billion.I’ll also be talking about Trump attacking Giorgia Meloni again, and Meloni firing back that being Trump’s friend has only hurt her popularity -- and maybe he should worry about his own polls. Plus, the Air Force flu outbreak after mandatory vaccinations were ended, the Justice Department quietly deleting thousands of January 6 press releases, Lawfare restoring them, and Trump’s Arctic people apparently wanting Greenland so they can bring back all-you-can-eat shrimp at Red Lobster.We’ll cover Trump’s latest nonsense about renaming ICE “NICE,” the Trump administration paying hundreds of millions of dollars to cancel more wind projects, and the Qatar “gift” Air Force One that taxpayers still had to spend a billion dollars on -- only for Trump to use it briefly and then apparently hand it off to his library.And finally, I’ll be discussing the latest Ukraine news: the new book alleging Scott Bessent called Zelensky vile names and told Trump not to host him, Zelensky warning Belarus to remove Russian missile guidance systems or Ukraine will do it for them, Ukraine putting pressure on Crimea and the Kerch Bridge, and a Ukrainian drone hitting a target more than 2,000 kilometers from the front. Plus, the Washington Post’s deep dive into Tulsi Gabbard’s cult ties, including documents allegedly showing cult leaders directing her political messaging and boosting her online with fake accounts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Julia D Lanford, BriaMom, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing the latest escalation with Iran, after a U.S. Apache helicopter was shot down near the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian Shahed drone. The two pilots were rescued and are safe, but Trump first vowed revenge, then said it wasn’t a big deal, while U.S. officials said they still weren’t sure whether Iran actually intended to hit the helicopter.Then we’ll get into the fact that the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes on Iran on Tuesday — and the rather amazing timeline from Ron Filipkowski: CENTCOM says the pilots were rescued at 7:33 PM ET, within two hours of being shot down, while Trump boarded his helicopter from Bedminster to go to the Knicks game at 6:57 PM ET. In other words, he was on his way to the game after the Apache was shot down and before the pilots were rescued.We’ll also talk about Trump claiming yet again that there’s a good chance of a peace deal with Iran in “2 to 3 days” — now supposedly the 37th time he’s claimed this in three months — while JD Vance says it could be a few days or a few months. Trump also admitted he really doesn’t want to go back to bombing Iran, because the Strait of Hormuz could be closed for months and a lot of people could be killed.Then I’ll get into Trump claiming oil and gas prices are not very high right now and are lower than under Biden — which is not true. Gas was around $3 when Biden handed the presidency over to Trump, and now it’s around $4.12.We’ll also cover Trump getting booed at the basketball game and then claiming there was cheering, the report that David Ellison and Paramount intend to have Bari Weiss oversee editorial at CNN if the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger goes through, and former Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino reportedly launching an exploratory committee for a 2028 presidential run.And finally, we’ll look at growing Republican threats against Social Security and Medicare, after Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans have a plan next year to “adjust and fix” Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, because he says more than 74% of federal spending is on autopilot.Plus, the latest from Ukraine and Russia: Ukraine appears to have set off a car bomb outside Moscow, possibly killing Col. Damir Davydov, Russia’s head of missile procurement; a major Russian gas pipeline blew up in Dagestan; and the EU is now proposing its first-ever entry ban on anyone who has served in the Russian military since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.0:00 Launching the show and getting Instagram, Substack and YouTube set up4:05 Breaking news: the U.S. strikes Iran again4:40 Iranian Shahed drone reportedly takes down a U.S. Apache near the Strait of Hormuz5:20 Trump vows revenge, then suddenly says the helicopter incident is not a big deal7:10 Trump has reportedly claimed a deal was close 37 times in three months9:00 Why saying that publicly is such a dangerous negotiating mistake9:55 Ron Filipkowski’s timeline: Trump leaves for the Knicks game during the pilot rescue10:35 Trump skips his son’s wedding because of “war,” but goes to a basketball game during a rescue mission12:15 Trump gets booed at the basketball game during the national anthem13:20 Video appears to show Trump falling asleep at the game15:00 Trump lies that gas and oil prices are lower than under Biden19:35 Why Trump’s lies mean he will not fix inflation or prices20:00 Trump claims he has already saved people thousands in taxes21:05 Paramount, David Ellison, CBS News and Bari Weiss26:25 Former Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino reportedly eyes a 2028 presidential run27:35 Republicans escalate threats against Social Security and Medicare33:05 Speaker Mike Johnson says Republicans have a plan to “adjust and fix” entitlements next year33:55 Ukraine appears to set off a car bomb outside Moscow37:40 Major Russian gas pipeline explosion in Dagestan38:00 EU proposes entry ban on anyone who served in Russia’s military since the 2022 invasion38:35 Trump’s Beverly Hillbillies-style UFC fight ring at the White House40:10 Trump-backed super PAC schedules a $1 million-per-person fundraiser before the UFC event41:30 Questions about whether fighters could drop out and Trump’s latest merch grift42:30 Live chat break: DC weather, balcony, hydrangeas and plants45:15 Snake plants, mother-in-law’s tongue and a Greek garden shop story50:00 Snake plants can flower — and the smell can be overwhelming52:00 Sasha starts going after the balcony plants and dirt58:00 Sasha begging for food and her evil alter ego, Emmanuel66:00 Sasha gets caught eating the Christmas cactus68:00 Lawsuit seeks to block Trump’s UFC fight at the White House70:00 Legal analysis: temporary event structure versus permanent White House changes72:00 Why the UFC event is tacky, but not as outrageous as destroying the East Wing74:00 Closing thoughts, Crimea gas joke and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show I’ll be discussing Trump’s latest legal and political messes, starting with the Kennedy Center quietly stripping Trump’s name from its materials and signage, and the new fight brewing over Trump’s nomination of Todd Blanche to be full-time attorney general.Then I’ll get into Trump again downplaying the importance of Iran’s enriched uranium, his ugly exchange with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins over the DOJ’s $1.8 billion fund, and his latest absurd claim that he has somehow “fixed” inflation and won the affordability fight.We’ll also look at a rare break with Trump in the House, where lawmakers are moving ahead with new aid for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, plus John Bolton’s reported plea deal over classified information.And on Ukraine, Zelensky has issued an open letter to Putin offering a ceasefire and direct talks — while Ukraine is reportedly hitting Russia’s Baltic fleet, and even some Russian hardliners are now warning that Putin’s war may be heading toward failure.Plus: the DC archbishop removes an exorcist who said UFOs are demons, MAGA influencers fight over Russia, CBS may be eyeing Joe Rogan, and Trump appears to fall asleep on camera again.00:04:13 Trump’s name is removed from the Kennedy Center00:08:03 Anthropic calls for a global pause in AI development00:09:35 GOP fight grows over Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund00:10:31 Trump nominates Todd Blanche as full-time attorney general00:12:23 Trump downplays Iran’s enriched uranium again00:12:38 Trump snaps at CNN’s Kaitlan Collins00:13:48 Trump claims he has fixed inflation and won affordability00:17:18 House moves ahead with Ukraine aid and Russia sanctions00:18:36 Zelenskyy sends an open letter to Putin00:19:26 Ukraine reportedly hits Russia’s Baltic Fleet00:19:36 Russian official says Russia must prepare for decades of war00:28:35 DC priest removed as exorcist after saying UFOs are demons00:29:22 JD Vance says he thinks UFOs are demons too00:29:49 Russian hardliners start warning Putin may not win in Ukraine00:33:30 Trump appears to fall asleep on camera again00:34:32 MAGA influencers split over Russia trip00:35:40 CBS reportedly considers Joe Rogan for 60 Minutes00:40:36 Wrap-up and audience chat This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show I’ll be discussing a growing Republican revolt against Trump’s war with Iran, as the GOP-led House votes to restrict the president’s ability to continue military action without congressional approval. We’ll also look at the latest round of fighting between the US and Iran, including new strikes, Iranian retaliation against US-friendly countries in the region, and what all of this means for the supposedly ongoing ceasefire.We’ll discuss the shocking report that a convicted January 6 insurrectionist has been hired into a sensitive Pentagon counterterrorism office that reportedly requires a Top Secret clearance, along with Democratic efforts to block Bill Pulte’s nomination as Director of National Intelligence. And we’ll take a look at the Supreme Court’s decision clearing the way for a Republican-friendly congressional map in Alabama, eliminating a majority-Black district.I’ll also cover Trump’s latest false claims about inflation and the 2020 election, his bizarre comparison between the White House reflecting pool and the world’s tallest buildings, and why he now says the UFC cage on the White House lawn may be there to stay. We’ll discuss Marco Rubio’s comments about Greenland, Trump’s ongoing feud with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, and reports that top Pentagon officials are defending racist social media posts directed at journalists.And overseas, we’ll look at Ukraine’s latest attacks on Russian oil infrastructure ahead of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the chaos that followed, and the irony of prominent American influencers reportedly attending the event while Russian airports were being shut down by drone attacks. Plus, we’ll talk about Laura Loomer’s remarkable warning that parts of the conservative movement may have been manipulated by Russian propaganda, and why her comments are causing such a stir on the right.00:00 Pre-show setup and opening discussion02:00 Lemon tea, audience chat, and housekeeping05:22 House votes to restrict Trump’s Iran war powers10:30 Continuing US-Iran fighting despite ceasefire claims16:04 Scott Pelley firing and turmoil at CBS News21:30 Democrats move against Bill Pulte nomination25:00 Trump’s inflation claims fact-checked28:00 Trump compares reflecting pool to world’s tallest buildings31:00 Convicted January 6 rioter hired for Pentagon counterterrorism role37:16 Supreme Court allows Republican-friendly Alabama map37:24 Trump again falsely claims 2020 election was stolen39:00 UFC cage may remain on White House lawn41:00 Rubio comments on Greenland43:08 Laura Loomer warns about Russian propaganda on the right44:20 Candace Owens, Andrew Tate, and Russia’s influencer outreach49:00 Ukraine attacks Russian oil infrastructure53:00 Russian drone attacks and airport shutdowns58:00 Pentagon controversy over racist social media posts63:00 Audience questions and discussion68:00 Politics, media, and foreign policy discussion73:00 Final Q&A77:00 Wrap-up and closing remarks This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Teri D, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight's show I'll be discussing Trump's latest budget maneuver, including how a controversial $1.8 billion fund may be gone while protections for Trump family business interests remain -- along with reports that Trump himself could personally benefit to the tune of $100 million.We'll also look at Trump's surprising choice to serve as Director of National Intelligence, despite a federal law requiring extensive national security expertise for the position. The nominee is simultaneously serving in multiple other high-level roles, raising questions about qualifications and conflicts. And Dr. Oz has a rather unusual explanation for why Trump keeps undergoing so many medical exams.I'll also cover the growing problems with Trump's much-publicized peace initiative, which appears to be billions of dollars short of what was promised, along with the administration's decision to dismantle a major deep-ocean scientific monitoring system used to track climate change, fisheries, ocean temperatures, and coastal flooding.We'll discuss new data showing that Trump's deployment of the National Guard in Washington, DC failed to reduce violent crime despite costing taxpayers roughly $1.5 million a day, yet the administration is reportedly expanding the deployment anyway.And overseas, I'll cover a massive new Russian assault on Ukraine involving hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles, warnings of an even larger attack to come, and the strange story of several prominent MAGA influencers currently enjoying an all-expenses-paid trip to Russia.00:00 Pre-show tech issues and opening chat02:46 Sasha update and vet visit discussion06:13 Trump's $1.8 billion slush fund collapses but Trump keeps the benefits10:54 Trump's controversial DNI pick Bill Pulte18:34 Dr. Oz explains Trump's repeated medical exams20:00 Trump's "Board of Peace" runs into funding trouble22:10 Trump, foreign money, and Board of Peace questions22:19 Trump administration dismantles ocean monitoring system26:07 National Guard deployment fails to reduce DC violent crime28:11 Massive Russian attack on Ukraine28:24 MAGA influencers accept Russia's all-expenses-paid trip30:00 Russia, propaganda, and conservative influencers35:00 Sasha health update and audience Q&A40:00 Brownie disaster and cooking discussion45:00 Viewer questions and open discussion50:00 Brownie recipe troubleshooting and food talk55:00 Politics and audience discussion60:00 Domestic terrorism and political extremism discussion65:00 Audience Q&A and current events discussion70:00 Final questions, ChatGPT discussion, and wrap-up72:20 Closing remarks This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing the latest legal battle over Trump’s takeover of the Kennedy Center, including a federal judge’s decision blocking efforts to rename the facility the “Trump Kennedy Center” and preventing plans to close the center for major renovations. We’ll look at what the ruling actually says, what Trump wanted to do, and why the fight has become another front in the broader political and cultural war surrounding the administration.I’ll also cover a federal judge’s decision to halt Trump’s proposed $1.8 billion restitution fund, the arrest of an ICE agent accused of assaulting a Venezuelan immigrant, and new details emerging from negotiations between the United States and Iran. Those talks reportedly include discussion of a massive investment fund for Iran, the possible release of frozen Iranian assets, and plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations continue. We’ll also examine warnings from Exxon executives that global oil inventories are approaching critically low levels and why some analysts believe energy prices could still spike dramatically even if tensions in the Gulf ease.Plus, questions continue to grow over the White House’s refusal to release Trump’s latest medical exam results, the Pentagon’s reported effort to recruit troops for a UFC event at the White House, a Justice Department push to identify anonymous social media critics of deportation policies, performers abandoning Trump’s Freedom 250 celebration on the National Mall, a Russian drone strike that hit an apartment building in Romania and triggered a NATO response, and new reports that Russia is blowing through its war budget as the costs of the Ukraine invasion continue to mount.0:00 Pre-show, livestream setup, audience chat1:05 Trump gets slapped down by the courts again4:57 Kennedy Center ruling blocks Trump renaming effort7:25 Why the Kennedy Center fight matters11:15 Trump’s vision for the Kennedy Center15:10 Court’s reasoning and legal implications20:05 Judge halts Trump’s $1.8 billion restitution fund22:01 ICE agent Christian Castro arrested25:06 Iran negotiations resume26:15 Proposed $300 billion Iran investment fund28:35 Frozen Iranian assets and sanctions relief29:45 Strait of Hormuz reopening negotiations31:45 Iranian demands and maritime fees33:51 Exxon warns of dangerously low oil inventories35:45 Why oil prices could still spike37:46 Trump physical exam controversy39:40 UFC event planned for White House grounds41:29 DOJ seeks identities of Reddit and X users42:07 Freedom 250 festival problems43:31 Russian drone attack near NATO territory43:35 Romania responds to Russian strike46:45 Russia blowing through its Ukraine war budget49:30 Putin’s economic challenges52:15 Questions about Iran’s future55:10 Oil markets, sanctions, and diplomacy58:05 Audience Q&A1:01:20 Discussion of Trump legal setbacks1:04:45 Iran deal prospects and skepticism1:08:10 Viewer questions and comments1:11:30 Final discussion and wrap-up1:15:00 Closing thoughts1:17:26 End of show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the bizarre and disturbing details emerging from Trump’s proposed Iran “peace deal,” including reports that the US may lift some longstanding sanctions, and let Iran sell oil freely in exchange for vague promises about future nuclear talks that sound suspiciously like the same talks Trump already blew up years ago, and talks that Trump has already been having for months!I’ll also cover Trump’s reported demand that Arab countries join the Abraham Accords as part of any Iran agreement -- a demand that Middle East leaders reportedly find baffling -- and why Lindsey Graham is now openly warning Arab allies that refusing Trump comes “at their own peril.”Speaking of warning Arab allies, I’ll also get into an updated on CNN’s reporting that Trump threatened Oman with military action, adding to a growing list of countries he’s threatened or attacked, along with the stunning economic contradictions piling up around the administration. Fox Business is now admitting GDP growth is weaker than expected, inflation concerns continue growing, and Trump’s DHS is reportedly considering major restrictions on international flights and cargo into so-called “Democratic airports” -- a move that could dramatically raise shipping costs and further damage tourism and trade.And then there’s the increasingly surreal side of the Trump presidency. We’ll talk about reports that the administration wants a $250 bill featuring Trump’s portrait, the proposed $60 million UFC arena on White House grounds, the gold-plating project involving giant bronze horses, and the latest revelations about a senior CIA official allegedly caught hiding more than $40 million in gold bars at his Virginia home. Plus updates on Russia’s escalating threats toward Kyiv, Latvia fortifying its border with Russia, Sweden’s fighter jet deal for Ukraine, and why Europe is taking Moscow’s rhetoric very seriously right now.0:00 Pre-show setup and stream intro1:57 Trump’s proposed Iran “peace deal”3:15 Sanctions relief and reopening Iranian oil sales5:05 Iran nuclear promises make no sense6:34 Trump $250 bill discussion begins8:20 Why the “deal” sounds like appeasement10:08 Trump pushing Arab states into Abraham Accords13:18 Russia threats and geopolitical instability13:39 Middle East leaders furious over Abraham Accords demands14:10 Lindsey Graham pressures Arab allies16:05 Why Trump keeps trying to force normalization with Israel19:59 Trump reportedly threatened Oman21:35 CNN list of countries Trump has threatened or attacked24:10 Bessent falsely claims no administration got Iran to negotiate26:05 Obama JCPOA comparison26:40 DOJ launches probe connected to E. Jean Carroll29:40 Trump DHS proposal targeting “Democratic airports”31:45 How flight restrictions would disrupt cargo and tourism33:10 Economic fallout from rerouting international traffic36:13 GDP revised downward and inflation concerns37:20 Trump ballroom funding controversy39:05 Venezuela corruption investigation discussion40:00 DOJ avoiding Delcy Rodríguez investigation40:55 Proposed Trump $250 bill resurfaces42:15 British artist behind Trump currency mockup43:11 CIA official accused of hoarding gold bars44:25 $40 million in gold discovered in Virginia home45:10 Russia threatens diplomats in Kyiv45:35 Latvia building anti-tank defenses on Russian border45:40 Sweden and Ukraine Gripen fighter deal46:12 Trump’s planned White House UFC arena47:05 Gold-plated horse project at White House48:58 White House Harambe anniversary tweet50:10 Audience discussion and reactions54:30 Iran negotiations and whether Trump is bluffing58:20 Debate over sanctions and oil prices1:02:15 Trump foreign policy contradictions1:06:40 Viewer Q&A on the Middle East1:10:05 Russia and NATO discussion1:13:45 Economic fears and inflation discussion1:17:20 Trump spectacle politics and media strategy1:20:05 Final audience Q&A1:22:48 Stream wrap-up and goodbye This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, we’ll be discussing Trump openly threatening to bomb our ally Oman over a possible Iran shipping deal in the Strait of Hormuz, while reports suggest Iran and the US are quietly negotiating a framework agreement that could reopen Gulf shipping and eventually lift parts of the blockade. But even if a deal is announced, there’s a huge question nobody in Washington seems to want to answer -- would oil companies, shipping firms, and insurers actually trust Trump and Iran enough to go back to normal business? Because markets are already signaling they don’t believe this crisis is ending anytime soon.We’ll also talk about reports that Trump is negotiating over releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds -- essentially paying Iran to get back to a situation that already existed before Trump tore up the Obama nuclear deal. Plus, CNN reporting that oil futures markets don’t expect oil prices to fully normalize until 2032, Stephen Miller falsely claiming fraud alone could balance the federal budget, and new reporting that DHS is considering pulling customs and immigration operations from major Democratic-run cities right before the World Cup and major international travel season.And we’ll cover the GOP civil war exploding in Texas between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, Republicans panicking over Democrat James Talarico, Russia escalating hybrid warfare and sabotage attacks across Europe, NATO preparing rapid-reinforcement plans for the Baltics, Russia threatening Elon Musk over Starlink in Ukraine, and Trump getting hammered by another report showing taxpayers massively overpaid for repairs to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.0:00 Stream issues, Substack problems and opening monologue3:45 Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Strait of Hormuz negotiations9:20 Why Oman matters strategically for the US and Gulf shipping14:05 Iran reportedly circulating draft framework agreement with the US19:10 Why markets still don’t trust a US-Iran deal to hold24:40 Greg Carlstrom and Hudson Institute warnings about a fake peace29:15 Trump reportedly negotiating over billions in frozen Iranian funds35:00 CNN report: oil futures don’t expect prices to normalize until 203240:30 Why gas prices may stay elevated even if Hormuz reopens45:20 DHS proposal to halt customs and immigration operations at major airports50:15 World Cup travel concerns and economic fallout from airport shutdowns54:30 Stephen Miller falsely claims fraud could balance the federal budget59:45 Trump jobs claims collapse under the actual employment numbers1:03:10 Ken Paxton vs John Cornyn turns into brutal GOP civil war1:08:40 Republicans panic over Democrat James Talarico in Texas1:12:20 National Park Service massively overpays contractor on Reflecting Pool repairs1:15:50 Russia escalating sabotage and hybrid warfare across Europe1:19:45 Russia threatens Elon Musk over Starlink support for Ukraine1:22:10 NATO preparing rapid-reinforcement plans for Latvia and Estonia1:24:50 Russia bombs UN food warehouses in Ukraine1:27:15 Final discussion, audience questions and wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you BriaMom, Rajneesh Agrawal, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss reports that the US and Iran quietly exchanged fire over a 24-hour period, including claims that Iran laid mines in the Gulf and that Iranian air defenses locked onto US fighters after American forces tried to stop them. We’ll also look at signs that Trump may already be softening his position on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile after Tehran rejected the original US demand. And that matters, because Trump spent weeks insisting Iran would never be allowed to keep enriched uranium under any deal.I’ll also cover a major new corruption story involving a Trump-family-linked Kazakh mining company that reportedly received a $900 million taxpayer-backed credit line from a federal agency. Then we’ll get into explosive new reporting about Kremlin propaganda operations after hackers breached the internal chats of a Russian PR firm allegedly tied to Moscow’s disinformation campaigns. The leaked messages reportedly show Russian operatives celebrating fake stories about Ukraine, fake scandals targeting foreign leaders, and even vandalism operations in France designed to inflame tensions and manipulate public opinion.And finally, we’ll talk about Ukraine and the growing fear that Russia may be preparing a massive strike on Kyiv -- and whether Ukraine could retaliate with a major attack on Moscow itself. Plus audience questions, discussion about the show, and some updates on Sasha.0:00 -- Getting the livestream started / delayed show tonight1:00 -- Update on Sasha and her walk today3:15 -- US and Iran reportedly exchanged fire over 24 hours6:40 -- Iran laying mines / US response / SAMs reportedly locking onto US aircraft13:08 -- Trump appears to soften position on Iran enriched uranium17:50 -- Why Trump’s uranium comments matter politically and diplomatically23:47 -- Trump corruption watch -- Trump-linked Kazakh mining company and $900 million taxpayer-backed credit line24:12 -- New hacked files reveal Kremlin propaganda operations25:20 -- Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Ukraine and Europe26:15 -- Fake Zelensky luxury apartment story pushed by Russian operatives27:10 -- Armenian prime minister disinformation operation27:55 -- Discussion of retired US General Paul Vallely and alleged Russian media influence efforts28:34 -- Russian-linked vandalism targeting mosques and Islamic cultural centers in France30:05 -- Ukraine war escalation concerns31:10 -- Could Ukraine launch a major retaliatory strike on Moscow?33:00 -- Audience questions and broader discussion This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing Trump’s incoherent new claims about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz -- one minute saying we have “total control,” the next minute basically admitting we don’t -- as Iran hardens its position on near-weapons-grade uranium and reportedly looks for ways to formalize its control over maritime traffic through the Strait. And while Trump keeps trying to sell strength, US intelligence reportedly says Iran is already rebuilding parts of its drone program faster than expected after the US-Israeli strikes.I’ll also get into the truly obscene effort to create a taxpayer-funded payday for January 6 rioters and Trump allies -- including Enrique Tarrio, other convicted rioters demanding millions, and Mike Lindell claiming he lost $400 million. Even some Republicans are now calling this out, with one GOP senator calling the whole thing “stupid on stilts,” because apparently there are still a few people in Washington who remember that Americans are worried about groceries (such an old word!), rent, mortgages, and gas -- not handing out a billion-dollar slush fund to insurrectionists.And we’ll talk about the broader Trump corruption machine: the so-far failed push for ballroom money, Trump’s arch getting approved even though Congress hasn’t paid for it, the RJ Reynolds vape-regulation payoff story, Trump blurting out that we have CIA operatives in Cuba, Fox’s own polling showing Americans hate his handling of the economy, and the Washington Post’s look at how Trump’s second-term rhetoric has gotten even more vulgar, insulting, and self-obsessed. Plus: CNN debunks Trump’s insane claim that Jesus would have counted California for him, FIFA hotel cancellations, a missing GOP congressman, Don Jr.’s wedding drama, and the ex-gay leader arrested in a horrifying, yet not surprising, underage sex sting.0:00 — Welcome, YouTube and Substack2:22 — Saturday coffee talk reminder3:14 — Trump’s Iran chaos and shifting threats4:15 — Iran hardens its position on near-weapons-grade uranium8:14 — Trump says we have “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz -- then admits we don’t10:43 — Iran, Oman, and the idea of a permanent Strait of Hormuz toll system12:39 — CNN report: Iran rebuilding military capabilities faster than expected14:28 — January 6 rioters line up for taxpayer-funded payouts14:54 — Enrique Tarrio wants millions after seditious conspiracy conviction17:00 — Mike Lindell claims he lost $400 million19:50 — Todd Blanche’s stunning answer on people who hurt police getting taxpayer money24:00 — GOP unease grows over Trump’s January 6 slush fund25:25 — Trump’s ballroom money runs into Republican resistance25:45 — Thom Tillis calls the fund “stupid on stilts”28:07 — Trump’s arch, the ballroom, and the cult-of-personality spending spree30:04 — Bill Cassidy warns Americans care about rent, groceries, gas -- not Trump’s payout fund34:30 — Fox poll: cost of living is the top worry, and Trump’s economy numbers are brutal35:01 — RJ Reynolds, Trump, RFK Jr., and the flavored vape regulation story36:12 — Trump confirms CIA operatives in Cuba36:20 — Washington Post analysis of Trump’s more vulgar, insulting second-term rhetoric36:34 — Trump’s ridiculous Jesus-and-California vote-counting claim38:08 — FIFA hotel cancellations in major US cities38:48 — Missing GOP congressman Tom Kean and 88 missed House votes42:14 — Trump maybe skipping Don Jr.’s wedding47:54 — Ex-gay leader Alan Chambers arrested51:58 — Breaking Reuters update: Trump flip-flops on Poland54:00 — Allergy shot pain, Trump lying, and side discussion58:00 — Ukrainian design and show-and-tell tangent62:00 — Cuban arrest story and Homeland Security press release confusion72:00 — Using ChatGPT to rewrite a terrible government press release76:00 — Why the DHS/ICE release is written so badly80:00 — Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s problem is never just the corruption. It’s the corruption wrapped in incompetence, wrapped in obvious non-credible denial.Take Iran. At the beginning of the war, Trump and his allies kept trying to tell us this wasn’t about regime change. Then it was about regime change. Then it wasn’t. Then maybe it was “liberation.” Or nukes. Then it was back to being something else entirely. And now we have this absolutely bizarre report that the Israeli strike that hit former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was tied to a plan to free him, and potentially use him as part of some larger regime-change play.Ahmadinejad. Seriously.This is not some heroic Iranian dissident, waiting in the wings with a Jefferson quote and a clean transition plan. This is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- Holocaust denier, anti-American, pro-nuclear, former face of the Iranian regime. A nutjob. And a dangerous one.And according to the NYT, Ahmadinejad was reportedly consulted about the plan — so whether he officially “agreed” or not, he was allegedly in on it. But then, the Times says, he got injured in the Israeli attack that was attack that was supposed free him from house arrest, and then became disillusioned with the whole thing. Which, if true, raises the obvious question: What exactly was the plan here? Because if your “freedom” strategy for Iran involves bombing a former hardline Iranian president out of house arrest so he can take over the regime, that’s not liberation.It also means Trump lied. Again. He never intended to free the Iranian people.Meanwhile, at home, the Senate, for now, stripped the $1 billion for Trump’s White House ballroom project from the Reconciliation bill because Republicans didn’t have the votes. GOP Senator John Kennedy said the votes weren’t there and they would lose if they put it up for a vote today. Good. They should lose. We’re talking about a billion dollars for yet another Trump vanity project, while Americans are still paying more for everything. Then there’s other piece of this. The IRS settlement. Trump sued the IRS, demanding at least $10 billion over the leak of his tax information. And IRS lawyers, we find out today, thought they could fight the case and win. But somehow, magically, the Justice Department didn’t fight it. They didn’t even show up in court to contest Trump’s bogus claims. Instead, they created an extraordinary $1.8 billion fund that could be used to fund Trump’s political allies, including the insurrectionists who tried to violently overthrow our government on January 6.And while Trump claims he won’t be eligible for the billion-dollar-bribe, he kinda sorta is. It seems the IRS is — well, was — going after Trump for possibly as high as $100 million in back taxes. Now he’s owes nothing, thanks to the sweetheart deal.Funny how that works.Interestingly, some Republicans are saying no. Mike Pence says January 6 defendants shouldn’t receive taxpayer compensation. Considering they were calling for him to be hanged, this isn’t surprising. But Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick now says he’ll oppose the whole settlement agreement. That’s good news. And Democrats are looking at reconciliation amendments to go after the fund.This isn’t complicated. People who attacked the Capitol shouldn’t get paid by the taxpayers because Trump found a way to launder their grievances into a settlement fund. And that’s the through-line here. Whether it’s Iran, Cuba, the IRS, the ballroom, Greenland, or anything else, Trump keeps using the machinery of government as if it’s his own personal property.So, yes, tonight had fewer stories than usual. But the stories all point in the same sad direction. Trump’s foreign policy is reckless. His domestic policy is corrupt. His governing style is chaos. His excuses are paper-thin. And every time you pull on one thread -- Iran, the IRS, Cuba, Greenland, USAID and Ebola -- you end up at the same place: Trump treats public power as private property, then acts offended when anyone notices.And then, because the news apparently wasn’t weird enough, we ended tonight’s show talking about haunted apartments, strange noises, and the old South Side Chicago Mary Worth mirror story (otherwise known as Bloody Mary).Honestly, at this point, Mary Worth showing up in the mirror might be one of the more positive things coming out of Washington of late. Have a good night, see you all tomorrow for more. JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Donald Trump has finally found the perfect MAGA policy: Take nearly $1.8 billion in taxpayer money and use it to help the people who tried to violently overthrow the US government.This new fund would reportedly be run by a tiny group of people appointed by Todd Blanche — Trump’s own loyalist at the Justice Department — and Trump can fire any of them at will. So the man who benefits politically from the payouts also gets a government-controlled process to decide who gets paid. Little transparency. Lots of formal apologies. Cash relief. All for the supposed victims of a “weaponized” justice system.And who are we talking about? January 6 defendants. Tina Peters. Likely people who assaulted police officers. JD Vance was asked whether people who the cops on January 6 should be ruled out from getting taxpayer money. He wouldn’t say yes. Instead, he started talking about the “kangaroo courts” that convicted the seditionists — which is the tell. It’s not enough that these crooks are running around free. Trump wants to delegitimize the courts that convicted them in the first place.That’s the authoritarian move. The courts aren’t courts anymore. The convictions aren’t real. The criminals are the victims. And the taxpayers get the bill.At the same time, this settlement will force the IRS to drop current investigations into Trump, his family, and his businesses — and block future investigations for any crimes committed before the settlement. Which is basically Trump finding a backdoor way to pardon himself on taxes — his government negotiates a settlement that kneecaps the IRS.And then Trump claimed today that he knows “very little” about the settlement. Please. This was his lawsuit. He sued the government, well, he sued himself. He also agreed to settle it. And now we’re supposed to believe he had no idea what was in the settlement of his own lawsuit? Everything is a lie with this guy, everything.Meanwhile, Trump is scaling back US military commitments to NATO, which is exactly the kind of signal Vladimir Putin wants to hear. If you tell Russia that America is less likely to defend Europe, you don’t prevent war. You invite it. Dictators do cost-benefit analyses. Trump is lowering the cost of war, in Europe and Asia.Then there’s Iran. Trump keeps pretending he’s on the verge of a deal, but Iran’s public demands don’t look like surrender. Iran still wants the right to enrich uranium. They want sanctions relief. They want frozen funds released. They want the naval blockade ended. They want compensation. Other than that, total capitulation.And while this chaos threatens to raise gas prices, Trump’s answer is that the price increases are “peanuts.” Peanuts, he said today. That’s easy to say when you’re Donald Trump. It’s a little different if you’re a normal person trying to afford gas, groceries (an old word no one uses anymore, according to Trump), rent, and everything else that’s gone through the roof since Trump imposed his tariffs, and now the war.There was also the public-health disaster brewing around Ebola, right as the World Cup is headed to the US. Trump and Musk’s DOGE boys gutted foreign-aid and disease-monitoring programs because they decided keeping people alive overseas was somehow wasteful. Now Ebola is spreading, the US is banning entry from certain affected countries, and one of the teams headed to the World Cup is from the Democratic Republic of Congo, ground zero for the latest outbreak.In other Trump screw ups today, Trump announced he’s backing Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Texas, potentially turning a safe Republican Senate seat into a gift for Democrats. Trump lied about the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, called it a “lake,” then suggested that Obama spent $200m on it, which he didn’t. Louisiana’s GOP governor is in Greenland, offering children cookies as part of Trump’s creepy imperial cosplay. And Giorgia Meloni gave a stronger statement on Ukraine than half the American right.And finally, the Trump phone is back in the news. The long-promised Trump Mobile review unit finally appears, preloaded with Truth Social, labeled “Proudly Assembled in the USA,” and decorated with an American flag that has 11 stripes.Eleven.There are 13 stripes on the American flag. For the original 13 colonies. This is not a hard test. If you’re going to wrap your cheap political grift in the flag, maybe count the stripes first.But that’s the whole thing in miniature. Trumpism sells cheap knockoff patriotism made in China, and it can’t even get the flag right. It screams law and order, then pays the people who attacked the police. It claims to fight corruption, then creates a secretive $1.8 billion payout machine for Trump’s friends. It claims strength abroad, then signals weakness to Putin and Xi, and chaos to Iran.The brand is nationalism. The product is corruption. And we’re the ones footing the bill. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump did it again.One day he was threatening to bomb Iran. The next, he was announcing that he’s “holding off” because Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE had supposedly asked him to wait while “serious negotiations” were taking place.That’s Trump’s usual routine: threaten Armageddon, scare everybody, then climb down and pretend the climbdown was some masterstroke of diplomacy.And the bigger problem is that everyone else is now supposed to clean up the mess Trump created. There’s an argument out there that NATO should rush navies into the Persian Gulf to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Thomas Friedman made it this weekend in the NYT. I get the logic. The Strait matters. Oil matters. Global commerce matters. But the problem is, Trump started this. Trump escalated it. Trump’s the one continuing to make a clusterF of this entire situation. So why exactly should Europe rush in to save him from the consequences of his own chaos?And that’s the broader theme here: Trump’s weakness is not keeping us out of war. It’s making war more likely. Look at Taiwan. At his China summit, when asked for a concrete win, Trump said his win was that he has a good relationship with Xi. Great. Meanwhile, Trump sure made Xi ecstatic by talking about Taiwan like it’s a small island too far away to defend, blamed previous presidents for the problem, said Taiwan stole our chip industry, and suggested companies should just move chip manufacturing back to the US.That’s not deterrence. It’s an engraved invitation for China to invade. Trump is telling hostile powers, yet again, that America doesn’t really want to fight for its allies. And the irony is that this kind of weakness doesn’t prevent wars. It encourages them.Then there’s the corruption. Trump’s financial disclosures show more than 3,700 trades in the first quarter alone -- tens of millions of dollars, more than 40 trades a day, involving companies with business before his administration. The details are breathtaking, and yet not surprising. Trump praises a company publicly, and around the same time there are stock purchases. This isn’t normal. This isn’t “business as usual.” This is a presidency that increasingly looks like a hedge fund with nuclear codes.And while that’s happening, we’ve got the rest of the Trump circus: an ICE agent charged after allegedly shooting an immigrant in the leg; Trump’s attorney general still pushing election-rigging claims while admitting they’re having a hard time finding proof; the EPA moving to weaken protections against “forever chemicals” in drinking water (yeah!); Kash Patel getting a VIP snorkel near the USS Arizona, where more than 900 US sailors and Marines are entombed; and Trump’s public-health team including a penile implant expert connected to something called “Erection Connection.”Because of course.The polling is brutal too. Americans are angry about the economy. Trump’s inflation numbers continue to be terrible. His support among white non-college voters -- the core Trump base -- has dropped sharply. And on Iran, the public is not buying what he’s selling. Most Americans don’t think going to war with Iran was right. And even Republican support for the war is below where it should be. Meanwhile, Ukraine may finally be seeing sustained territorial gains against Russia for the first time since late 2023. That matters. Putin’s entire strategy depends on grinding Ukraine down and convincing the West that time is on his side. If Russia is losing ground, getting hit at home, and facing new pressure, that theory starts to crack.And then, because apparently the news wasn’t already stupid enough, Elon Musk melted down over Lupita Nyong’o being cast as Helen of Troy. His argument was that Helen is part of “European literature,” and therefore she simply must be portrayed as white. But Helen’s claim to fame wasn’t that she was white. She was Greek. Mythological, yes, but Greek. The daughter of Zeus, for God’s sake. Elon turned Homer into a white-pride grievance session, because that’s what these guys do. Everything becomes a culture-war tantrum. Everything has to pit us against each other, when sometimes a movie is just a movie.So tonight’s show was really about one thing: The chaos is not accidental. The weakness, the corruption, the incompetence, the fake victimhood, the religious sycophancy, the endless threats followed by retreats -- that’s Trumpism. And sadly, it’s becoming America. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump went to China supposedly trying to get Xi Jinping to help pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and calming global energy markets. That was the point. That was the strategic objective. Oil prices are threatening to push gas prices higher, bond yields are setting up higher consumer lending rates, mortgage rates are jumping, and Americans are getting squeezed from every direction. This was supposed to be serious diplomacy at a dangerous economic moment.And Trump’s first big readout was about his ballroom.Not Iran. Not energy. Not the Strait of Hormuz. His ballroom. “China has a Ballroom, and so should the U.S.A.!” Then he praised Xi Jinping as one of the world’s “great leaders.” So the president of the United States goes to China, supposedly needing leverage over the communist dictator, and his public message is flattery for Xi and a commercial for his own construction project.And it, of course, then got worse. Trump appeared to repeat the idea that America was in decline — an opinion he attributed to Xi — exactly the kind of propaganda line foreign dictators love hearing from an American president. Then, when a reporter pressed Trump, because Xi apparently had not said what Trump claimed he said, Trump basically admitted it may not have been Xi after all. “It might not have been from him,” he said. Great. So the president is praising Xi, trashing America, and then can’t even keep straight who supposedly said what.And while Trump is overseas getting played, the corruption back home is as blatant as ever. According to ABC, Trump is expected to drop his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS in exchange for the creation of a $1.7 billion fund to compensate his allies who claim they were wrongfully targeted by the Biden administration. And this fund could reportedly include January 6 insurrectionists. The IRS also could be forbidden from auditing Trump, his family, or his companies. Oversight and transparency could be stripped away. Trump could reportedly remove members of the commission running the fund without cause. And the commission would not have to disclose how it decides who gets money.Right. So, Trump sues the government. Then he becomes the government. Then Trump, as the government, settles with himself in a way that could create a $1.7 billion grievance fund for his political allies (and family and businesses), potentially including January 6 domestic terrorists, while also shielding Trump-world from IRS scrutiny.This is not normal. And while one idea under consideration is barring Trump from directly receiving payments tied to those claims, entities associated with Trump are not explicitly barred from filing additional claims. So even the supposed guardrail comes with a giant asterisk that Trump can easily get around — just give Trump Inc. a billion, and they can cut Trump a check from their new-found wealth.Meanwhile, regular Americans are falling behind. Credit-card delinquencies are at their highest level since 2011. Student-loan delinquencies are at their highest since 2020. Auto-loan delinquencies are at the highest level on record. That’s the real economy for a lot of people right now. Not Trump’s ballroom. Not his arch. Not the golf course (yeah, we found this week he’s also spending federal money on one of those too). Not the billionaire grievance fund. People are missing payments. People are getting crushed.And the Republican response? Here’s GOP congressman Jim Jordan today, talking to CNN about inflation: “That’s life.”Yeah, that’s life.Prices up? That’s life. Debt delinquencies rising? That’s life. Mortgage rates jumping? That’s life. Oil prices threatening gas prices? That’s life. But somehow there’s always time for Trump’s arch, Trump’s ballroom, Trump’s legal settlement, Trump’s allies, Trump’s revenge machine, and Trump’s protection racket.Then there’s Iran. Trump wants to claim total victory. He wants the clean TV version: we bombed, we won, everyone clapped. But reality doesn’t work that way. Iran’s enriched uranium problem didn’t magically disappear because Trump needed a victory lap. And when David Sanger of The New York Times pressed him on Iran, Trump lost it and started throwing around “treason” language. Because that’s what authoritarians do. (It’s also what dumb people do.) They don’t answer hard questions. They criminalize them.That’s the whole Trump story: he flatters dictators, punishes allies, rewards cronies, shrugs at your pain, and calls it leadership.It isn’t leadership. It’s corruption. Pure and simple. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I talk about Trump’s price shock -- because that’s what this is. Grocery prices are exploding, tomatoes are up, coffee is up, beef is up, vegetables are up, and farmers are getting crushed on fertilizer. And a lot of this comes back to Trump’s own choices: tariffs, the Iran war, higher energy costs, diesel costs, and the basic reality that when you jack up the price of moving food around the country, guess what happens? Food gets more expensive. Shocking, I know. And while Americans are looking at their grocery bills, Trump is flying around the world praising Xi Jinping as a “great leader.” Because apparently that’s the priority.I also get into the Iran war polling, and it’s brutal. A majority of Americans oppose the war, only 30% support it, and even among Republicans the support isn’t exactly overwhelming. That matters because Trump sold himself as the guy who was going to fix everything -- prices, wars, the economy, the whole mess. Instead, we’re getting higher prices, a new war, farmers who can’t afford fertilizer, and a president obsessed with vanity projects, gold statues, golf courses, and triumphal arches. The man is literally trying to build himself an arch while people are getting crushed by prices.And then we get into the corruption file, because somehow it keeps getting worse. Kash Patel appears to be gaming the FBI’s Ten Most Wanted list for headlines, and then we learn his Hawaii trip included a “VIP snorkel” session at Pearl Harbor. The Trump Justice Department is dropping charges against billionaire Gautam Adani after one of Trump’s personal lawyers gets involved. Paramount is talking to Katie Miller about a podcast deal while its Warner Bros. merger needs Trump’s approval. More than 100 ambassador posts are sitting empty, troops are being pulled from Europe, and then in the back half of the show we get into the truly disgusting possible settlement scheme to hand taxpayer money to January 6 people. It’s corruption, incompetence, authoritarianism, and grift -- all wrapped into one very expensive disaster.YouTube timestamps0:00 -- Opening the show and setting up the night’s topics2:30 -- Trump in China while prices explode back home4:57 -- Trump praises Xi Jinping as a “great leader”6:12 -- Trump’s bizarre Chinese restaurants comment9:33 -- Grocery prices are exploding under Trump11:05 -- Fruits and vegetables spike hard in April12:00 -- Tomatoes, coffee, beef, diesel, and the food supply chain13:54 -- Farmers can’t afford fertilizer for 202615:00 -- Why Trump’s economic mess is starting to look politically dangerous16:12 -- New Iran war polling shows Americans oppose Trump’s war17:38 -- Trump’s proposed triumphal arch and the contract end-run21:50 -- Trump’s DC golf course renovation while people get crushed by prices24:20 -- Kash Patel and the FBI Ten Most Wanted list stunt26:36 -- The Adani case and Trump’s Justice Department reversal28:22 -- Paramount, Katie Miller, and the Warner Bros. merger politics30:50 -- A UN corruption anecdote and how influence really works37:24 -- More than 100 US ambassador posts are empty37:47 -- Pentagon cancels troop deployment to Poland39:00 -- Why Trump keeps making moves that help Russia41:02 -- Generic ballot polling shows independents swinging hard toward Democrats43:41 -- Kash Patel’s Pearl Harbor “VIP snorkel” trip46:50 -- The possible Trump IRS settlement scheme49:56 -- A proposed $1.7 billion fund for Trump allies50:57 -- Taxpayer money for January 6 extremists55:00 -- Trump’s corruption, inflation, fertilizer, and the broader economic damage60:03 -- Egg prices ease, but the larger grocery problem remains61:00 -- Trump, retribution, Comey, and the collapse of rule-of-law norms62:00 -- The larger Trump grift machine65:00 -- Closing chat, dog cameo, and lighter end-of-show conversation73:19 -- Wrapping up and preparing a TikTok follow-up on Trump corruption This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show I’ll talk about how Trump is heading into major China talks apparently without a single serious China expert at his side. Which is insane. And while Trump’s team is screaming insults at actual experts, Eric Trump is joining the Beijing trip while a family-linked group is chasing a China chip deal. So yes, somehow we’re back to “foreign policy as family business opportunity.” Again. (Still?)I’ll also get into Iran, where Trump officials are now claiming that Iran is “frighteningly close” to weapons-grade enriched uranium. Which is exactly the problem some of us warned about when Trump blew up the Iran nuclear deal with no replacement. He tore up the guardrails, Iran got back to work, and now his own administration is basically admitting the danger is worse. Then again, they’re lying. Iran is not close to building a nuke -- not to mention, they’re STILL close after two months of bombing? Then what have we accomplished?Then there’s the economy. Trump’s people are still pretending they “inherited” historic inflation, when inflation was 2.9% when he took office and is now 3.8%. That’s not an inheritance. That’s a policy failure with a price tag. And Americans are feeling it every time they buy groceries, fill the tank, or pay the bills.I’ll also talk about the stunning corruption story out of the New York Times: Trump is reportedly considering settling a $10 billion lawsuit with himself, while one option being reviewed would have the IRS drop audits of Trump, his family, or his businesses.And then there’s the FBI. NOTUS reports there’s now an internal “payback squad” handling politically sensitive cases, while other reporting says Kash Patel’s FBI may be gaming the Most Wanted list to make its arrest stats look better. So the bureau is apparently being turned into a political weapon and a PR machine at the same time. Very banana republic. I’ll also hit the health corruption angle: Another top Kennedy official is out, reportedly over the administration’s push to let major tobacco companies sell flavored vapes that appeal to children. Because apparently even in this administration, some people still have a line. (Though why did he work for Trump & Kennedy at all?)Finally, I’ll turn to Ukraine, where the war is changing fast. Russia’s advance has slowed to a crawl, drones are now causing a massive share of Russian casualties, and the Pentagon is openly studying Ukraine’s drone battlefield because this is what modern war now looks like. That matters for any Trump “peace deal,” because the facts on the ground don’t match the Putin-is-winning narrative Trump keeps trying to sell.0:00 -- Welcome and show setup2:37 -- Tonight’s lineup: Trump, China, Iran, Ukraine, RFK scandal3:45 -- Trump goes to China without serious China experts5:00 -- White House communications director melts down online8:00 -- The venom and childishness of Trump’s team10:00 -- Eric Trump joins the China trip while family-linked business chases a China deal12:00 -- The Hunter Biden hypocrisy vs Trump family corruption13:29 -- Iran is still “frighteningly close” to enriched uranium15:00 -- If Iran is still close, what did Trump’s war accomplish?19:23 -- Burgum tries to blame Biden for Trump’s inflation problem20:00 -- Inflation was 2.9% when Trump took office -- not “the highest in 40 years”23:00 -- Trump’s tariffs, Iran war, and rising prices24:15 -- Trump praises China and says he wants to help lift China higher26:27 -- Trump considers settling a $10 billion lawsuit with himself29:00 -- Possible IRS audit protection for Trump, his family, and his businesses31:00 -- The reported FBI “payback squad” targeting Trump’s enemies34:17 -- RFK Jr. vaping scandal and resignations inside Trump’s health team37:30 -- Trump’s deranged attack on Mitch McConnell’s staffer40:00 -- Trump targets the staffer personally and gets basic facts wrong44:00 -- My own Senate staff story -- and why staffers matter50:00 -- Congressional staff do the work Trump clearly doesn’t understand52:23 -- Trump’s hand and the weird refusal to explain what’s going on53:14 -- Russia’s military advance in Ukraine has slowed to a crawl55:00 -- Why Trump’s Ukraine “peace deal” rewards Putin for failing56:17 -- Ukrainian drones are devastating Russian forces57:31 -- The US studies Ukrainian drone technology and battlefield lessons58:16 -- Hungary summons Russia’s ambassador after a drone attack near its border60:35 -- Kash Patel’s FBI accused of gaming the Most Wanted list63:00 -- Viewer Q&A: superpower conflict, Russia, China, and spheres of influence67:00 -- Is conflict with Russia or China inevitable?70:00 -- Hungary, Belarus, NATO, and the Suwalki Gap74:00 -- Wrap-up and goodnight This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I talk about Trump’s economy cracking under the weight of his own policies and his war with Iran. Inflation has jumped to 3.8%, gas prices are rising, oil is up, and there are warnings that regular gasoline could hit $5 a gallon if the Strait doesn’t reopen soon. Trump keeps pretending everything is fine, but the public isn’t buying it: 70% disapprove of his handling of the economy, 73% say the economy is poor, and 77% say his policies have increased prices.I also get into the Iran mess, including Don Jr.’s hilariously badly aged tweet bragging that Trump would keep us out of a “full-blown war with Iran.” Also, Trump was asked about inflation and basically admitted the war is hurting the economy, while still lying about what inflation was before the war.Then we move through the corruption and chaos parade: Trump’s ballroom costs exploding, the Reflecting Pool contractor mess, the Wall Street Journal saying Trump’s DOJ subpoenaed reporter records over an Iran story, Trump raising doubts about Taiwan arms sales before meeting Xi, and the administration’s dangerous lack of health leadership as hantavirus concerns grow.And then there’s the full-on Trump meltdown: 55 posts in three hours last night, full of treason accusations, Obama conspiracies, Dominion lies, Jack Smith revenge fantasies, and whatever else was ricocheting around his brain late at night. I also cover the Trump sons’ Kazakhstan mining deal, Sean Duffy’s reality-show access scandal, Ukraine’s new defense-tech deal with the US, Trump’s $1.2 trillion “Golden Dome” fantasy, and Russia attacking US-linked firms in Ukraine while the White House stays silent. The through-line is simple: Trump promised strength, peace, lower prices, and competence. What we’re getting is inflation, war, corruption, chaos, and Russia-First foreign policy. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s Iran war is getting worse, not better -- and the problem isn’t just the war itself. It’s that nobody can explain what the war is actually for.Reuters says two out of three Americans don’t think Trump has clearly explained why the US has gone to war with Iran. Every time Trump talks about it, the rationale changes. First it was the nuclear program. Then it was Iran’s uranium. Then it was terrorism. Then it was regime behavior. Then, suddenly, the uranium buried under rubble wasn’t such a big deal because, according to Trump, Space Force is watching it and we’ll just blow people up if they go near it.And keep in mind the larger absurdity here: Virtually every gram of Iran’s highly enriched uranium was produced after Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. He tore up the agreement, didn’t replace it with anything, so Iran got back to work being a nuclear baddy. So now we’re supposed to pretend the solution to Trump’s first mistake is Trump starting a war to clean up the mess he helped create. And so far, the war doesn’t appear to be solving anything.Then there’s the Pentagon side of this. Senator Mark Kelly says the hit to US weapons stockpiles is serious -- Tomahawks, ATACMS, SM-3s, THAAD rounds, Patriot interceptors. These aren’t magic weapons that replenish themselves because Trump says “America First” three times in a mirror. These systems take years to replace. Which means Trump’s Iran war could weaken our ability to respond to a future conflict with China, for example.Meanwhile, the rest of tonight’s show is basically a guided tour through the Trump corruption-and-crazy machine. The reflecting pool project that started at $1.8 million, then $7 million, and now $13.1 million. Sean Duffy taking a seven-month family vacation, reportedly paid for by companies his department regulates, while still serving as Transportation Secretary. Trump heading to China with Elon Musk and Tim Cook. The US sanctioning an International Criminal Court judge so aggressively that hotel reservations, wire transfers, credit cards, packages, and even insurance become a problem.And then, because the fever dream never ends, Trump is spreading vaccine misinformation again, talking about babies getting “a vat” of vaccines, which is not how children’s vaccines work. He’s now talking about making Venezuela the 51st state because of oil, and because, in his mind, “Venezuela loves Trump.” He appeared to fall asleep again in the Oval Office, while the White House insisted he was just blinking for 30 seconds. And the IRS is reportedly in talks to settle Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit — meaning, Trump will decide whether, and how much, the US government settles with himself.So tonight’s show is Iran first, because that’s the real-world crisis. But the larger story is the same one we keep seeing: Trump creates chaos, calls it strength, leaves everyone else to pay the bill, and then moves on to the next scam.That’s not leadership. That’s just MAGA. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Lynda A Paquette, NJ McGuigan, BriaMom, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show started with the political map, because Republicans just got a very real gift. The Virginia Supreme Court struck down the Democratic redistricting plan, and combined with the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act, Republicans may now have a much easier path to holding the House. Democrats can still win. Trump is still unpopular. Republicans still have no message beyond chaos, cruelty, and “please ignore the prices.” But the road just got harder. And that’s the point. When Republicans can’t win the argument, they try to change the map before voters even get a say.Then there’s Trump’s billion-dollar ballroom. Republicans are reportedly freaking out about having to vote for a billion dollars tied to Trump’s ballroom while Americans are getting crushed by inflation, gas prices, and basic costs. And they should freak out. It’s insane. Trump keeps pretending prices are fine. He says consumer confidence is “way up.” It isn’t. He says gas prices are way down. They’re not. Gas is still way up from January — up 66% on average — and families are looking at summer vacations that cost thousands of dollars and deciding to stay home. That’s not confidence.And then we got into Iran, where Trump is trying to sell two completely opposite stories at the same time. On the one hand, peace is supposedly right around the corner. Iran could respond to the latest US proposal any minute. A deal could be close. On the other hand, US and Iranian forces are still clashing in the Gulf, the UAE is reportedly under attack again, and US forces just hit two Iranian-flagged oil tankers. So which is it? Are we ending the war, or escalating it?The worst part is the war’s original justification keeps getting weaker. Joe Kent, Trump’s former counterterrorism official who quit in protest the other week, says the US intelligence community assessed before the war that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon -- and that attacking Iran would likely lead to exactly what we’re seeing now: retaliation, threats to US bases, and the Strait of Hormuz becoming a global economic choke point. In other words, the experts warned Trump. He did it anyway. Now Trump needs an off-ramp, because the war didn’t deliver the magic victory he promised.And markets aren’t buying the spin either. Wall Street has moved from TACO to their new phrase for Trump, NACHO -- “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens” -- because investors increasingly don’t believe Trump can just bluster the world’s most important shipping lanes back into normality.We also talked about the hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship, which would be alarming enough on its own, except RFK Jr. fired the CDC unit that actually handled cruise ship outbreaks. Trump’s response was basically, “hope it’s under control.” Very reassuring. Nothing says public health leadership like dismantling the fire department and then hoping the smoke clears itself.And yes, we got UFO files. The administration still hasn’t released all the Epstein files, but hey, here are some unidentified aerial phenomena. I’m pro-UFO transparency, actually. I’m also pro-not using UFOs as a shiny object while everything else burns.Then we wrapped with the fun stuff: Greek citizenship, language learning, old IDs, bad hair, good hair, alleged celebrity lookalikes, and the fact that by Monday night, I should officially be a European citizen. No passport yet. No maroon EU document to clutch dramatically to my chest. (That’ll come in a few months.) But after fifteen years of fighting with documents, registries, spellings, and bureaucracies, I’m taking the oath at the Greek embassy on Monday. And honestly, after this week’s news, having one foot in Europe doesn’t sound so bad. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s Iran war is now in the “everything is fine, we’re just bombing each other” stage.That was basically the headline tonight. Right before the show started, we got breaking news that the US had struck Iran again. And the reason was just as insane as everything else in this war: Iran had reportedly attacked US Navy ships again in the Strait of Hormuz, after doing the same thing days earlier. Trump didn’t respond the first time, which was basically an engraved invitation for Iran to try it again. So they did. And now Trump is retaliating days late, in the middle of supposed peace negotiations, while still insisting the ceasefire is somehow intact.That’s not a ceasefire.And the timing matters. Because the actual news before the bombs started flying again was that Iran was reportedly considering a one-page proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop the fighting for 30 days while the two sides negotiate a bigger settlement. The basic framework is simple: lift the US blockade on Iranian ships and ports, reopen the strait to commercial traffic, stop the fighting, and then spend the next month fighting over the hard stuff. And the hard stuff is still the nuclear program. The US wants Iran to hand over its highly enriched uranium and suspend enrichment for 20 years. Iran is offering less: dilute some uranium, send some to a third country, possibly Russia, and suspend enrichment for maybe 10 to 15 years.That’s at least a negotiation. It’s not peace. It’s not surrender. But it’s a path away from the cliff.The problem is Trump keeps pretending he’s already won. And US intelligence is saying the opposite. According to a CIA analysis, Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more serious economic pain. US intel also reportedly says Iran still has about 75% of its mobile launchers and about 70% of its prewar missile stockpiles. Trump claimed this week that their missiles were “mostly decimated.” That, we now know, is a lie.And that’s the problem with having a pathological liar run a war. Americans are supposed to judge whether this war is working based on what the president tells us. Congress is supposed to decide whether to support it based on what the president tells us. But if the president is lying about Iran’s economy, lying about Iran’s missile capacity, lying about the ceasefire, and lying about how much leverage we have, then nobody can make an informed judgment about anything.Meanwhile, Americans to continue to pay the price. Gas is up. Oil is volatile. Ground beef is at $6.70/pound nationally. And Republicans are suddenly quoting Biden’s energy secretary saying presidents don’t control gas prices. That’s adorable. Under Biden, every penny at the pump was supposedly his fault. Under Trump, after Trump himself brags that he shut down the Strait of Hormuz, suddenly gas prices are just vibes. Except Trump admitted this week that oil could have gone to $200, and he said it would have been worth it. Worth it to whom? Because $200 oil isn’t a strategy. It’s $10 gas and a recession, and a lot of empty American wallets.And then there’s the corruption circus, because there’s always a corruption circus with this guy. Trump’s ballroom is now looking less like a $400 million vanity project and more like a $1.4 billion taxpayer-funded monument to one man’s ego. The Qatari 747 “gift” keeps getting worse, because experts say the plane can’t possibly be properly secured in a few months, but Trump wants to use it anyway -- meaning the president may conduct sensitive national-security business on an insecure plane. And then, apparently, the plane eventually gets parked at the Trump library, where Trump can use it after leaving office. So we pay billions to secure it, and he gets the toy. Nice scam if you can get it.We also talked about the DOJ investigating suspicious oil trades made right before Trump’s Iran announcements -- trades that reportedly made more than $2.6 billion. That investigation is either going to be fascinating, or dead after they find out who was making the bets, and whether his last name starts with a T. Meanwhile, FBI Director Kash Patel is reportedly in panic mode, polygraphing staffers to find leakers while also claiming the stories they’re leaking are false. Which is a little awkward, because if the stories are false, what exactly are people leaking?Then came acting Attorney General Todd Blanche floating the idea of Border Patrol or ICE agents at polling places. Armed agents. Probably masked. At voting locations. In America. And he asks, “What’s the risk?” The risk is voter intimidation. The risk is scaring Latinos and Black voters away from the polls. The risk is turning US elections into a cosplay version of Russia, where Putin “only” wins by 87% or so.And, because these guys are simply tone deaf about the economic pain people are facing, Trump now has a 20-foot gold statue of himself at his Doral club in Miami. Real gold, apparently. Inflation is raging, people are paying more for food, health premiums are soaring (because Trump refused to renew the ACA subsidies), and Trump is tweeting gold statues of himself. Nero fiddled. Trump gilds.We closed with Kamala Harris reportedly thinking about another run, which I’m not sold on; Joe Rogan trying to soften Nick Fuentes’ Holocaust denial as merely “debating the numbers,” which is simply vile; Trump’s weird bruised hands and a mystery dentist visit; and Marco Rubio going to see Pope Leo XIV and giving him a crystal football. Yes, the Pope gave Rubio a peace plant. Rubio gave the Pope a State Department paperweight shaped like something you’d buy in an airport gift shop. The pope’s reaction was literally: “Wow. Okay.”Yeah, Pope, we know. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump spent years screaming that Obama’s Iran nuclear deal was the worst deal in history. And now, after two months of war, he may be trying to crawl back into something that looks a lot like it.That’s tonight’s top story. Trump says he’s close to a deal with Iran. He also says if Iran doesn’t agree, the bombing starts again at an even higher level. Which is funny, because usually when someone is close to a deal, they don’t threaten to blow the other side up again five minutes later.And the reported deal is not some grand, final settlement. It’s a one-page memorandum of understanding. Basically, a concept of a deal. A 30-day negotiating window. Iran agrees not to seek a nuclear weapon. There may be enhanced inspections. The Strait of Hormuz gets reopened. The US gradually lifts sanctions and releases billions in frozen Iranian funds.Sound familiar?Trump attacked Obama for years over sanctions relief and frozen Iranian assets. He was still ranting about it to children the other day. And now his own proposed framework reportedly includes sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian money. So either Trump doesn’t understand his own deal, doesn’t remember what he said yesterday, or just assumes his supporters won’t notice that this is Obama bis, the deal he threw out years ago.But the larger question is uglier: What did this war actually accomplish?US intelligence reportedly says Iran is still 9 to 12 months away from building a nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so. That’s where Iran was a few months ago, before Trump started bombing. So after two months of war, over a dozen American service members dead, countless Iranian civilians killed, tens of billions of US tax dollars spent, gas prices up -- and Iran’s nuclear timeline may not have changed at all.That’s not “obliteration.”And that’s not just my view. Former officials are saying the same thing. The regime is still intact. The nuclear program is still intact. The missile program was degraded, not destroyed. Iran’s support for proxies is still alive. The enriched uranium wasn’t removed. The ballistic missile program wasn’t ended. The Iranian people weren’t liberated. So again: what exactly did we buy with all this money, blood, and risk?Then there’s the rest of the Trump show, because of course there is.Kash Patel, the FBI director, is angry about The Atlantic reporting on allegations of erratic behavior and drinking. So now there are reports that the FBI is investigating the journalist who embarrassed him, claiming someone inside the FBI leaked her information. Which raises the obvious question: If Patel says the story was fake, how exactly was there a leak? If the story was made up, there was no leak. If FBI sources talked to the reporter, then maybe the story wasn’t made up after all. Pick a lane, Kash.And then we get the Kash Patel swag bombshell, published a few hours ago by the same reporter: beanies, hoodies, “government gangsters” playing cards, personalized bourbon bottles engraved with “ka$h patel fbi director.” Because apparently nothing says sober, serious federal law enforcement like turning the FBI into a liquor table at CPAC.Meanwhile, Trump’s ballroom has gone from $200 million to $400 million to now $1 billion — and the Republicans now want US TO PAY FOR IT. This is the same guy who said taxpayers would pay nothing, not a dime, zero. And remember, Trump had the FBI investigate the Fed chair over construction overruns. But when Trump’s vanity ballroom goes five times (and probably more) over the original number, suddenly we’re supposed to call it national security.And that’s the theme of the whole night: Trump says one thing, does the opposite, then expects everyone to pretend reality didn’t happen the day before. He says Iran respects us while they’re firing on US ships. He says the economy is great while credit-card spending is through the roof because prices are through the roof. He says the ballroom costs taxpayers nothing while Congress prepares to put up a cool billion for it. His administration rebrands ICE as “NICE” because apparently Orwell was too subtle. Melania talks about Trump’s empathy and starts laughing. And the Pope, of all people, basically tells Trump to stop lying.In Donald Trump’s Washington, it’s just another Wednesday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s Iran war is now entering the most dangerous phase: the phase where Trump needs everyone to pretend it’s over.US Secretary of State, and many other things, Marco Rubio now says the combat operations launched back in February are finished. Great. Somebody should tell Iran. Since this so-called ceasefire began, Iran has kept attacking commercial vessels, kept seizing ships, kept attacking US forces, and kept pushing around its neighbors in the Gulf. But Trump wants to declare the war over because Trump wants out. He wants the headline. He wants the victory lap. He wants the Nobel Prize fantasy version of foreign policy where the details don’t matter and everyone just claps for Dear Leader.But Iran can see what’s happening. They can see Trump is desperate. Last week, Trump said he didn’t care how long the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. Then, a few days later, suddenly he’s panicking and begging for help reopening it. So if you’re Iran, why would you settle now? Why wouldn’t you just drag this out until Trump gives you the best deal possible? Trump’s entire negotiating style is that any deal is a good deal if it lets him claim victory, and move on.And the nuclear justification is now collapsing too. Trump is now claiming Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear weapon when he bombed them last year. Really? Because that’s the kind of thing you’d think he might have mentioned before. Maybe in the big Iran speech. Maybe in the endless interviews. Maybe every ten seconds if it were actually true.Instead, US intelligence said Iran was three-to-six-months away from building a nuke (if they wanted to) before last year’s strikes. After those strikes, Iran was 6-to-12-months away from building a nuke (again, if they so choose). Then, Trump bombed them for the past two months, and what happened? Iran is still 6-to-12-months away from building a nuke. Literally nothing changed. In other words, we blew things up, risked and lost US troops, raised energy prices, raised inflation risks, and spent tens of billions of dollars (at least) -- and apparently didn’t set back Iran’s nuclear program by even a day.And no, that doesn’t mean Iran should ever be allowed to get a nuclear weapon. Absolutely not. Iran is a terrorist state. It cannot be allowed to have nukes. But that’s the point: If you’re going to start a war over a nuclear program, the war should actually do something about the nuclear program. Otherwise, what are we doing?Meanwhile, the corruption parade at home continues. Senate Republicans now want to give Trump $1 billion for “security” around his ballroom. Remember, this was supposed to be privately funded. Initially we were told it would cost $200 million. Then $400 million. Now it’s a billion dollars of taxpayer money — but don’t worry, they say it’s only for security. Except Trump and Republicans already told us the ballroom itself is a security measure. So Trump will probably use the entire billion on doilies and those gold appliqués from Home Depot.In other news, Trump also attacked the Pope again, Mark Zandi is warning that Trump’s tariffs have already damaged the economy, RFK Jr.’s FDA is reportedly blocking vaccine safety studies, Russia is threatening Kyiv because Putin wants a nice clean Victory Day parade, and Democrats appear more motivated to vote in November than Republicans (yeah!).And then, late in the show, Trump announced that “Project Freedom,” the effort to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, is being paused while the blockade stays in place. Which he is somehow presenting as progress. We were escorting some ships. Now we’re escorting none. And Trump wants you to believe that’s a breakthrough.He’ll lie about anything. And frequently does. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump is caving again on Iran. And not quietly.Last week, he was telling us the Strait of Hormuz was closed because he closed it. Not Iran. Him. Iran was supposedly begging him to reopen it, and he said no, because he could keep it shut for weeks or months until Iran was desperate. Very tough. Very strong. Very alpha, as long as you don’t wait four days.Today, Trump suddenly decided he needed to reopen the strait immediately. First, he told the press that the US Navy would force its way through with military escorts and reopen the shipping lane by force. Then, as usual, Trump flip-flopped again. The actual plan turned into two US-flagged commercial ships following some Navy ships checking for mines. Two ships. In a waterway that normally sees something like 150 ships a day. Congratulations. We’ve invented the world’s most expensive maritime participation trophy.Then Iran started firing. Missiles and drones at US forces and merchant vessels. Missiles at the UAE. Iran even claimed it hit a US Navy ship, while the US denied it. In normal times, I’d believe the US military. Under Donald Trump, who lies the way other people breathe, who knows. And that’s one of the most dangerous things he’s done to this country: He’s made it harder to trust the US government, even when the government may be telling the truth.In spite of all this, Trump says the ceasefire isn’t broken. Which is fascinating, because generally when the other side is firing missiles at you, we call that “not a ceasefire.” Silly me.The economic piece is just as bad. Oil jumped again. Gas is now around $4.47 nationally. Diesel is hitting all-time highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. And this is the same man who promised gas under $2 a gallon, and said he’d cut energy prices in half within 12 months. We’re now 15 months in, and prices went the other direction. Not only did he fail. He failed big time.As for Trump officials claiming the past few days that “it was worse under Biden” not really. National gas prices were over $4 during Biden’s term only from March to August 2022. That’s it. Trump is already back over $4. He owns this. He promised to cut energy prices, and he’s raised them. He promised to cut inflation, and he raised it.Then there’s Ukraine, where the picture is increasingly brutal for Russia. Russia captured only 68 square miles last month, while losing thousands of vehicles and tens of thousands of troops killed and wounded. At that rate, as Frank Luntz noted (citing Forbes), Russia would take the rest of Ukraine sometime around the year 2256, at the cost of roughly 101 million casualties. So yes, Russia is still dangerous. But this is not the triumphant war machine Putin wants everyone to imagine.And that’s exactly why Europe is worried. Not necessarily that Putin is about to roll tanks into Poland. More likely, he tries something ambiguous. A drone operation. A Baltic Sea incident. Something in the Arctic. A shadow-fleet provocation. Something designed to scare Europe, split NATO, and make everyone argue about whether Article 5 applies.And Trump is making that more likely. He’s pulling 5,000 US troops out of Germany, including frontline troops we routinely deploy to Eastern Europe. These are exactly the kinds of forces that would matter if Putin tested NATO. So once again, Trump is doing something that helps Vladimir Putin. He can yell “Russia, Russia, Russia” all he wants. But for whatever reason, Trump is always on Putin’s side.Then, because apparently we don’t have enough wars, Trump also said the US will be taking over Cuba “almost immediately.” Remember when he ran on ending foreign wars? Now he wants to raise defense spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion — so he can fight even more wars — while threatening Cuba, Greenland, Panama, Venezuela, Gaza, and who knows who’s next.Domestically, the authoritarian freak show continues. As you know, former FBI Director Comey posted a picture of seashells on a beach arranged to say “86 47.” The phrase means “get rid of Trump, dump Trump, toss Trump, take him off the menu.” It does not mean “I am personally planning an assassination,” which is what Trump’s Justice Department is now trying to claim.Trump’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, made the problem worse (for Trump). He was asked whether all the people selling 86 47 merchandise online should also worry about prosecution. He said of course not. Because the phrase is used constantly. Exactly. That’s the point. If the phrase itself isn’t enough to prosecute everyone else, then it isn’t enough to prosecute Comey. Unless the real rule is: it’s legal when random people say it, but illegal when Trump wants revenge.Blanche also claimed that the indictment is based on something else entirely — some mysterious “other” evidence to prove that James Comey is really Squeaky Fromme. Except the indictment itself is about the seashells. That’s it. That’s the case. It’s not that long an indictment, and the entire thing is about seashells. If they had all this alleged other evidence, why isn’t it in the indictment? Why didn’t they present it? Why is the entire charging document about the seashell post? It’s not law enforcement. Because they’re likely lying again.Next topic, election theft. Blanche gave us another classic: He said we should require voter ID because you have to show ID every time you walk into a restaurant. What restaurants is this man going to? Unless he’s talking about strip clubs, most adults do not show ID to enter a restaurant. You show ID if you’re young and ordering alcohol. That’s not the same thing as voting.Meanwhile, Trump’s numbers are cratering. Harry Enten says Trump’s net approval is now the worst ever for him. His support among GOP-leaning independents has collapsed from 91 percent in 2024 to 53 percent job approval now. His $1.5 trillion defense spending plan is opposed by nearly two-thirds of Americans. And more Americans, a solid majority, now say he isn’t physically healthy enough to serve.Which brings us to Trump bragging again about cognitive tests. He keeps saying he’s taken three of them, and aced them. He doesn’t seem to understand what he’s admitting. Doctors don’t usually give you three cognitive tests for fun. They give them because they’re worried about dementia, Alzheimer’s, cognitive decline — and you don’t get three unless things are getting worse. Also, when Trump says the tests are hard, that’s not the flex he thinks it is. They’re not supposed to be hard, UNLESS YOU HAVE DEMENTIA.So tonight’s show was Iran, oil, Ukraine, NATO, Cuba, Comey, voter suppression, Trump’s collapsing polls, Hegseth lying about troops at polling places, and Trump bragging about dementia tests. In other words, our foreign policy is dangerous, the economy is getting uglier, the authoritarianism is getting louder, and the people in charge are still somehow dumber than the crisis they created. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s Iran war is now hitting Americans exactly where everyone knew it would: at the gas pump.The Strait of Hormuz is still the center of this mess, and Trump is now pitching some new coalition to reopen it, after spending days pretending he didn’t need anyone else, and in fact, he WANTED it closed! He even claimed that King Charles privately told him he would’ve been willing to join the war against Iran, which is one of those Trump stories that sounds less like diplomacy and more like a guy at a bar explaining how all the important people secretly agree with him. (Buckingham Palace was forced to publicly deny the story.)Meanwhile, gas is already at $4.40. Oil is still sitting at crisis levels. And Republicans are doing what Republicans always do when reality becomes inconvenient: lie. Tim Scott said gas prices are coming down. They’re not. Steve Scalise claimed gas is way down from two years ago. It’s not. Pete Hegseth suggested California gas was $8 when the war started. It wasn’t. This is the problem with propaganda. It doesn’t make the price at the pump go down. And people aren’t stupid. They go to the store and they know what things cost. And lately, that’s far too much.And even if the Strait reopens, some day, prices don’t magically fix themselves the next day. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan is saying prices may not return to pre-war levels for well over a year after the Strait reopens. So the idea that this is just a temporary inconvenience, that Trump can wave his hand and prices will collapse, is fantasy. This is the cost of war. It’s the cost of instability. It’s the cost of putting a guy in charge who treats global security like a reality show cliffhanger.Then there’s Trump’s war on the press, which is getting more dangerous by the day. Just days after a gunman entered a dinner hosting thousands of journalists, Trump called CNN “the enemy,” and said the New York Times was “actually seditious.” Sedition is not just “I disagree with this newspaper.” Sedition means trying to violently overthrow the government. So when Trump tells his supporters that journalists are enemies of the country, and literally trying to violently overthrow him, that’s not harmless bluster. That’s the kind of language that can inspire someone unstable to act, violently.And the hypocrisy is off the charts. Trump and Melania just spent days whining because a comedian told a joke they thought was mean. But Trump can accuse journalists of being enemies of the state, and suddenly everyone is supposed to pretend this is normal. It’s not normal. It’s authoritarian. And it’s dangerous.The rest of the show is the full Trump collapse in miniature: the Justice Department going after James Comey over “86 47,” revived probes that look a whole lot like political retribution, the Epstein suicide note that was apparently sealed for years, Trump attacking Hakeem Jeffries for criticizing the Supreme Court after Trump himself trashed the Court last week, and Trump’s sons taking a stake in a Kazakh mining company that won a $1.6 billion US government contract. Just normal family business. Nothing to see here, Hunter.And because no Trump news cycle is complete without some cognitive weirdness, Trump is now bragging that he took cognitive tests three whole times! And never once asked WHY his doctor thought he needed three tests for dementia. Add in Russia claiming Trump and Putin blamed Zelensky for the lack of a peace deal, Ukraine aid only moving after Mitch McConnell had to shame the administration, and Trump apparently gluing his own challenge coins to White House doors, and you’ve got the whole picture. War, corruption, gas prices, authoritarian rhetoric, and a president decorating the White House like it’s a tacky casino gift shop.That’s tonight’s show, check out the video for more. Otherwise, I’ll check in tomorrow. Thanks, JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s Iran war has entered the phase everyone warned about: The quagmire phase.Not the “mission accomplished” phase. Not the “we bombed them and they folded” phase. Not even the “we have a diplomatic off-ramp” phase. No. We’re now in the “let’s keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for months, keep US forces parked in the region, watch oil and gasoline prices explode, and hope Iran blinks before we do something even stupider” phase.That’s not a strategy. That’s Vietnam with oil futures.The reporting today is pretty straightforward. Trump reportedly doesn’t want to resume bombing Iran, but he also doesn’t want to back down. So now the plan is an extended blockade. The Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The blockade remains. US forces remain in the region. Iran doesn’t capitulate. Trump doesn’t retreat. And both sides sit there waiting for the other guy to blink -- or fire first.And the problem is, that’s how wars spread.This is the thing Trump never understands. Or maybe he understands it and just doesn’t care. You can’t shut down one of the most important oil chokepoints in the world and then act shocked when oil prices spike. Gasoline is already climbing. Oil is already surging. And that feeds directly into inflation, which feeds into bond yields, which feeds into mortgage rates, business borrowing, the cost of servicing the national debt, and eventually recession risk.So when Trump says he’s being tough, what he’s really saying is: You’re going to pay more at the pump, your mortgage is going to get more expensive, businesses are going to get squeezed, and the Fed may have to keep rates higher because Trump needed to prove he was a big strong man.And politically, the numbers are brutal. Americans think the economy is on the wrong track. Independents say the economy was better under Biden. Trump’s inflation numbers are historically awful. That’s the part he can’t spin away. You can lie about a war. You can lie about a deal. You can lie about Iran being “in collapse.” But people know what they’re paying for gas. They know what groceries cost. They know what their rent and mortgage cost. Reality has a way of punching through the propaganda.And then there’s the Comey indictment, which is almost too stupid to be real. James Comey gets indicted over seashells arranged to say “86 47,” while Trump’s own allies have used the exact same “86” language about Biden and members of Congress. Trump himself has posted violent imagery about Biden. But somehow Comey’s beach photo is the national emergency.This is what authoritarian governments do. It’s Soviet, communist Chinese, and Putinesque. They don’t apply the law equally. They define the law as whatever protects Dear Leader and punishes his enemies. If Trump’s enemies say something ambiguous, it’s a federal case. If Trump’s allies say something worse, suddenly everyone becomes a free speech absolutist. (Remember when JD Vance scolded the UK, and Europe overall, for being soft on free speech?)The rest of the show is the same theme in different forms: corruption, hypocrisy, decay, and consequences. Israel wants Ukraine’s help against Hezbollah drones while still playing footsie with Putin and refusing to help Ukraine. The Supreme Court just made it easier to dismantle minority voting power. The White House calls Trump a king days after Trump says calling him a king puts his life in danger. And Trump manages to embarrass himself in front of actual royalty, because apparently even the British monarchy isn’t safe from his desperate need to be the center of attention.The through-line is simple: Trump creates chaos, lies about the chaos, blames everyone else for the chaos, and then asks why everything is on fire. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show I’ll discuss Trump’s increasingly bizarre week of corruption, authoritarian branding, and general weirdness. We’ll start with the Comey indictment, the FCC targeting Disney and ABC because Melania Trump doesn’t like Jimmy Kimmel, Trump calling everyone fascists, and the still-murky ballroom shooting that may not even have been a shooting. Then there’s the ballroom itself: Trump now says it isn’t paid for and wants Congress to cough up $400 million, while Republicans are basically saying, sure, why not, let’s just hand him a taxpayer-funded palace.I’ll also get into Trump’s war with Iran and the economic fallout. Gas is now reportedly up to $4.19 a gallon, oil prices are spiking again, and Trump is claiming Iran is in a “state of collapse” and wants the US to open the Strait of Hormuz -- one minute before markets opened, because apparently that’s how we do global crisis management now. We’ll talk about King Charles, Trump’s weird handshake moment, Paramount asking the FCC to approve nearly 50 percent Middle East ownership in its Warner deal, and The Bulwark’s report that the State Department is close to redesigning US passports to put Trump’s face on them. Because nothing says constitutional republic like turning your passport into a Dear Leader collector’s item.And then we’ll hit immigration, public health, and a few international stories. The Miami Herald says ICE arrests of Cubans have skyrocketed under Trump as green cards have plummeted. The White House is doubling down on renaming ICE as “NICE,” which is so stupid it almost feels like parody, except it’s apparently real. CNN says 2025 was America’s worst measles year since the disease was declared eliminated in 2000, and this year could be worse. We’ll also talk about Hungary’s Peter Magyar proposing a meeting with Zelensky, Israel’s response to Ukraine’s allegation that it bought Russian-stolen grain, and yes, because we deserve one moment of sanity, the seagull competition.00:00 -- Technical chaos, audio problems, and getting the show started06:27 -- A very bad news day for democracy in America09:36 -- Trump’s Comey indictment over the “86 47” beach photo12:22 -- What “86 47” means, and why the case is absurd and dangerous18:10 -- The legal theory behind the Comey threat allegation22:30 -- Why criminalizing anti-Trump speech is the point27:23 -- FCC targets Disney/ABC licenses over Jimmy Kimmel31:45 -- Trump’s video calling his opponents fascists33:00 -- The White House ballroom “shooting” that may not have been a shooting34:45 -- Trump now wants Congress to pay $400 million for the ballroom37:20 -- Trump’s weird ballroom brief and the reflecting pool lie40:05 -- NYT reporting on Clark Construction, no-bid work, and inflated pricing43:20 -- Gas prices spike as Trump’s Iran war fallout hits Americans46:10 -- Oil prices jump again and the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues49:40 -- Trump claims Iran is in a “state of collapse” right before markets open53:15 -- King Charles, Trump’s speech video, and the weird handshake moment58:20 -- Paramount asks FCC to approve nearly 50% Middle East ownership1:02:20 -- Bulwark report: Trump’s face may be going inside US passports1:07:10 -- ICE arrests of Cubans skyrocket while green cards plummet1:09:15 -- The White House wants to rename ICE as “NICE”1:10:55 -- Measles is back, and 2026 may be worse1:12:15 -- Hungary’s Magyar seeks a reset with Zelensky1:13:30 -- Israel’s response to Ukraine’s stolen-grain allegations1:16:07 -- The European seagull screeching competition saves the day1:17:48 -- Wrap-up, Sasha, giant crows, and tomorrow’s show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’ll start with the latest on the Washington Hilton shooting scare, the man arrested with guns and knives, and the obvious security questions this raises. He never got inside the secure perimeter and apparently wasn’t even on Trump’s floor, but he still could’ve hurt journalists and other people entering through the front of the hotel. And now Trump is using this to claim he needs his giant ballroom, because of course he is. Never mind that the event had about 1,000 people, not 2,500. Never mind that this wasn’t even a government event. And never mind that Trump’s previous assassination attempt was at one of his own resorts -- which he somehow hasn’t declared off-limits, presumably because that would interfere with the grift.Then we’ll get into the bigger Trump spin operation: his people are now trying to blame Democrats for a “culture of violence,” which is pretty rich coming from Donald Trump. This is the guy who mocked Paul Pelosi after he was nearly killed with a hammer, celebrated Robert Mueller’s death, tried to violently overthrow the government, and just posted a racist video depicting Barack and Michelle Obama as gorillas. But now Melania is lecturing Jimmy Kimmel about hateful rhetoric, Karoline Leavitt is blaming people for comparing Trump to H*tler -- when JD Vance did exactly that -- and the Heritage Foundation is pretending America has a left-wing violence problem, even though the data shows right-wing political murders have massively outpaced left-wing ones for decades. The point isn’t subtle: Trump is trying to turn a security failure into a political weapon, while deflecting from Epstein, Iran, and an economy that’s not exactly booming.And then we’ll turn overseas, starting with Iran, where Trump claimed there was some huge new Iranian offer to reopen the Strait and set aside the nuclear issue -- just in time for the markets to close -- except it appears he lied. Oil is back up, gasoline is almost back to its crisis high, and Germany’s chancellor is now openly saying the Americans have no coherent strategy, no exit plan, and may be getting humiliated by Iran. We’ll also talk about Israel allegedly buying stolen Ukrainian grain from Russia, Mali’s Russian-backed junta possibly collapsing, Canada’s prime minister saying the US has changed and Canada has to adjust, the Trump administration’s move away from newborn hepatitis B shots, and the report that Kash Patel may already be on his way out. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit aravosis.substack.comThis weekend’s shooting at the Washington Hilton is one of those stories where the instant hot take -- “security failed” -- may not actually be right. This was the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, the annual Washington media prom — we call it Nerd Prom — where the press, politicians, and celebrities all gather at the Washington Hilton. The Hilton — o…

On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing the latest in the Iran war, including reports that negotiators are heading back to Pakistan, Trump blurting out that Iran may be preparing a “huge offer,” and new concerns that Iran dropped more mines in the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll also talk about the Reuters report that the Pentagon has been looking at ways to punish NATO allies it thinks didn’t sufficiently back US operations in Iran -- including the absurd idea of suspending Spain from NATO, which NATO then had to explain isn’t actually a thing. And we’ll get into the bigger cost of this war: US bomb and missile stockpiles reportedly depleted, commanders in Europe and Asia less ready, and a price tag approaching $1 billion a day. Then there’s the political/economic fallout. Saudi Arabia is reportedly backing out of a $200 million commitment to the Met Opera because the war is hitting the Saudi economy. Poll after poll is showing Trump getting absolutely hammered on the economy, with independents turning sharply against him, voters furious about gas prices, and even a chunk of 2024 Trump voters now supporting impeachment. And at the same time, Trump is online in the middle of the night posting increasingly unhinged stuff about treason, the 2020 election being “wiped from the books,” and the Southern Poverty Law Center somehow being part of another grand conspiracy. Totally normal. Nothing to see here.And we’ll hit the rest of the madness too: Trump claiming Obama blocked a Spirit Airlines merger years after Obama left office and decades after People Express went out of business; the Justice Department literally bringing back the firing squad; Republicans floating a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell if she talks to Congress; Kash Patel’s old arrests resurfacing while he faces scrutiny over drinking; and Trump-approved taxpayer payouts to Carter Page, Michael Flynn, and Ashli Babbitt’s estate. Plus, the Trump family’s reported billions off the presidency, the hideous Reflecting Pool renovation, the acting Navy secretary worried about witchcraft, and yes, tomorrow night is the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.00:00 - Welcome, setup, and tonight’s big Iran/economy/polls show01:38 - Trump is in serious trouble in the polls03:42 - Iran negotiations may be back on -- and Trump conveniently announces it right before the market closes04:13 - Trump’s Friday pattern: miracle Iran claims, market manipulation, and fake optimism05:09 - Iran reportedly drops more mines in the Strait of Hormuz05:37 - Trump’s incoherent Strait of Hormuz story: he wants it closed, open, closed, and open again08:23 - Reuters: Pentagon looked at ways to punish NATO allies over Iran war support08:39 - Trump reportedly considers suspending Spain from NATO -- except he can’t09:03 - Trump threatens to reassess US support on the Falklands/Malvinas10:08 - Why picking Argentina over Britain would be geopolitical malpractice11:09 - Trump’s deeper attack on NATO and US national security11:35 - More reported NATO punishment ideas -- and what wasn’t in the Pentagon email12:00 - Trump’s World Cup stunt: punishing Iran and rewarding Italy17:16 - Israeli intelligence reportedly thinks Mojtaba Khamenei is dead17:40 - Why Israeli intelligence may know more about Iran than almost anyone18:29 - Intelligence, disinformation, and what to believe about Iran22:33 - Saudi Arabia pulls back from a $200M Met Opera deal because of the war’s economic impact22:49 - NYT: Iran war drains US bombs and missiles and costs nearly $1B a day23:03 - Trump claims Obama blocked a 2024 Spirit Airlines merger with an airline that died in 198724:39 - Trump’s Justice Department brings back the firing squad27:45 - Trump boosts treason claims against Hillary Clinton, Obama, and Brennan28:14 - Trump’s 1:13 a.m. meltdown over the Southern Poverty Law Center and the 2020 election33:17 - Republicans float a Ghislaine Maxwell pardon so she’ll talk to Congress33:55 - Kash Patel’s old public urination and intoxication arrests resurface34:34 - Fox News poll: Democrats lead Republicans on the economy for the first time in 16 years37:52 - Trump’s economy approval collapses from +6 to -3238:28 - Trump has the worst presidential economic net approval on record39:18 - Independents are abandoning Trump on the economy40:15 - Cook Political Report: independents say Trump failed on cost of living40:27 - Reuters poll: gas prices are a huge problem, even for Republicans40:57 - One in five 2024 Trump voters supports impeaching him41:22 - Fox poll: 55% say Trump lacks the mental soundness to serve41:50 - Jim VandeHei’s warning: Republicans know they’re in a huge hole43:30 - Why a Democratic House would create subpoena hell for Trump43:54 - Democrats threaten to go after the Ellison/CBS/CNN empire44:42 - Mother Jones: preventable child deaths after Musk dismantled USAID44:54 - DOJ expected to drop the Jerome Powell investigation -- with a catch45:41 - Trump-approved taxpayer payouts to Carter Page, Michael Flynn, and Ashli Babbitt’s estate47:23 - Bernie Sanders: the Trump family has made $4B off the presidency48:17 - Trump turns the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool into a swimming pool49:31 - Donald Tusk says there are “no Russians in the room” -- then Slovakia’s Fico walks by51:55 - Trump honors Georgia women’s tennis by shaking only the men’s hands53:38 - The official photo shoves the women behind the men55:04 - Trump’s new acting Navy secretary worries about witchcraft57:13 - White House Correspondents’ Dinner preview: Trump, no comedian, and press cowardice58:52 - Tomorrow’s member Coffee Talk reminder59:50 - Conservative comedians, why the right struggles with culture, and the arts01:01:57 - Why education, empathy, and the humanities tend to repel MAGA01:09:42 - Closing remarks and signoff This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the ugly reality that Trump clearly isn’t planning to end this war anytime soon -- and he’s not even being honest about what’s happening. Today he bizarrely claimed the war has only been going on for six weeks, when it’s been eight, then snapped at reporters and started rambling about Vietnam lasting longer, as if that somehow makes this debacle better. At the same time, oil and gas prices are climbing again, jet fuel is getting squeezed, and even airline executives are warning that the economic fallout is likely to get worse in the weeks ahead. I’ll also get into the broader cost of this war -- not just in money, but in strategic damage. Reports say the US has burned through so many munitions in Iran that officials are now worried we may not be fully prepared for a Taiwan contingency in the near term, with years needed to rebuild stockpiles. That’s the part nobody in this administration wants to talk about. They want to posture and bluster, but wars don’t happen in a vacuum, and when you drain military resources into one open-ended conflict, you weaken yourself somewhere else. And then there’s the corruption, the incompetence, and the authoritarian creep wrapped around all of it. Trump’s approval is collapsing, his administration is reportedly ramping up efforts to strip citizenship from naturalized Americans, Fox is cheering on yet another Trump family cash-in tied to government power, and the broader MAGA project just keeps turning into the very swamp it claimed to oppose. So tonight I’m going to pull all of that together -- the war, the rising costs, the hypocrisy, and the bigger question of how much more damage Trump is willing to do because he apparently has no exit plan at all.0:00 Opening — Iran war reality check2:10 Trump claims war is “only 6 weeks” + Vietnam rant6:45 Strait of Hormuz control claims vs reality10:30 Oil spike — Brent, WTI, and gas prices rising again14:20 Jet fuel crunch + airline warning for summer travel18:05 Khamenei health report — what it actually means22:40 US munitions depletion — Taiwan risk27:15 Pentagon planning gaps + timeline to rebuild stockpiles31:50 Strategic consequences — fighting one war, losing leverage elsewhere36:10 Trump approval collapses (new polling)39:20 Denaturalization push — what they’re actually doing43:30 Eric Trump + Pentagon contract controversy47:00 MAGA hypocrisy — “Animal Farm” moment51:10 Spirit Airlines bailout — government ownership angle54:30 RFK Jr math nonsense + Trump reaction58:00 World Cup stunt — Trump, Italy, and Meloni1:01:20 Carter Page settlement1:04:00 Meta layoffs + AI spending1:06:40 Ukraine infiltration story1:09:10 Prince Harry in Ukraine1:11:00 Trump MLK rant1:13:00 Navy sailor incident + wrap-up1:14:30 CBS report — Iran military not as destroyed as claimed1:15:30 Final thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’m going to get into the latest on Iran and this very shaky ceasefire that Trump is now trying to hold together. The reporting makes pretty clear that he’s giving Iran just a few more days to come up with a real counteroffer, because it looks like he thinks the US has gotten about all it can get militarily and he wants out before this war gets even more politically toxic. But the Strait of Hormuz is still the huge issue here. You’ve got ship seizures, competing claims about who’s controlling what, and warnings that it could take months to fully clear the waterway. And that matters because this isn’t just a military story. It’s an oil story, a shipping story, and an inflation story.I’m also going to talk about the economic fallout, because that’s where this starts getting very real for people very fast. Fuel prices go up, then everything else starts moving. Airlines are already cutting flights. Fertilizer prices are rising. Food prices are likely next. And once higher fertilizer costs start hitting corn and feed, that means higher prices for beef, chicken, eggs, dairy -- all of it. That’s how these wars work. People act like it’s some faraway foreign policy fight until it shows up in their grocery bill and at the gas pump.And then I’m going to get into the wider political mess here at home, because the rest of the news is completely nuts too. You’ve got the Virginia redistricting fight and what that could mean for the House, fraud charges against the Southern Poverty Law Center, a giant new Pentagon drone budget while Don Jr. and Eric just happen to be in the drone business, more Epstein files drama, Kash Patel’s latest legal mess, RFK Jr. warning that the US is losing scientists and research to China, and new polling showing Trump’s numbers are now worse than after January 6. So the larger point here is that the chaos is not contained. It’s overseas, it’s here, and it’s all starting to bleed together.0:00 Intro and opening thoughts2:32 CBS undercuts Trump’s claim that Iran’s military was destroyed2:44 Strait of Hormuz chaos and why it still matters3:28 Trump gives Iran a short ceasefire window to make a deal4:43 Trump’s poll numbers are now worse than after January 65:54 What was the point of this war and what counts as “winning”17:48 Fuel prices, fertilizer, and why food inflation may be next20:40 Trump floats financial help for the UAE amid war fallout22:30 Virginia redistricting and what it could mean for the House30:54 Southern Poverty Law Center indictment32:18 Trump’s massive drone budget and the Trump family business angle32:44 MTG says Trump blocked release of the Epstein files33:47 Kash Patel loses his defamation case against Frank Figliuzzi34:17 Report that CDC won’t publish covid-shot hospitalization findings35:57 Kash Patel and the New York Times reporter investigation38:23 RFK Jr. says the US is losing science and research ground to China40:33 The “Trump is losing his mind” argument and what it says about the moment43:17 US begins using Ukraine’s Sky Map system in Saudi Arabia43:30 EU approves major Ukraine loan and sanctions move after Hungary lifts veto45:25 Georgia women’s tennis White House photo48:45 Late-show CBS report -- much of Iran’s military was not destroyed55:14 Military leadership chaos during wartime57:03 Viewer Q&A and additional discussion1:13:29 Sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing how the supposed diplomatic off-ramp with Iran looks like it’s falling apart in real time. Negotiations appear to be breaking down, JD Vance’s Pakistan trip is reportedly on hold, and the various ceasefire claims flying around don’t look especially credible. Trump is doing what he always does -- saying one thing, then saying the opposite five minutes later -- extending a ceasefire on one hand while threatening bombing on the other. I’ll get into what that tells us about where the talks really stand, how Iran is responding, and why oil and gas prices are moving back up. I’ll also be looking at the larger cost of this confrontation -- strategically, economically, and militarily. There are reports that the US has burned through a significant number of key missiles, Gulf states are already looking for financial protection in case this spirals, and even consumer products are getting more expensive because of petrochemical disruption. At the same time, Trump is out there making ridiculous claims -- saying he could’ve won Vietnam and Iraq in five months, and falsely claiming Iran agreed to give up a major nuclear sticking point when that is very obviously still one of the central disputes. And in the middle of all of this, his administration is scrapping mandatory flu vaccines for US troops, because apparently even basic military readiness now has to be filtered through culture war nonsense. Then I’ll turn to the broader political picture, because the dishonesty and instability here go way beyond foreign policy. Trump is lying about inflation, lying about the timeline, and lying about the numbers. Meanwhile, even some of the people who helped create this mess are starting to crack -- Tucker Carlson, for example, is now basically admitting he sold people a bill of goods. I’ll also get into the growing signs of politicization and dysfunction across the administration, from efforts to target political enemies to the treatment of Afghan allies, the SPLC investigation, the JetBlue pricing controversy, and the cancellation of mRNA vaccine funding. The through-line in all of it is the same -- dishonesty, incompetence, and ideological fanaticism, all colliding at once, with real-world consequences.0:00 Show open and setup glitch4:47 Iran talks falling apart and JD Vance’s Pakistan trip put on hold5:45 Strait of Hormuz closure, blockade questions, and Trump’s false claims7:10 Trump’s ceasefire extension and Lebanon ceasefire starting to fray8:26 Trump threatens bombing while pretending talks are still alive10:09 Oil pressure, exports, and Iran’s strategy of endurance12:34 Gas prices and the broader economic fallout15:22 Trump claims he could’ve won Vietnam and Iraq in five months16:10 Trump scraps flu vaccine requirements for US troops20:39 US missile stockpile concerns during the Iran war20:59 UAE seeks a financial backstop in case the war worsens21:58 Petrochemical disruption and bizarre ripple effects on global prices22:55 Trump lies about inflation and rewrites the economic timeline26:38 Even right-wing media starts hinting Trump is losing it27:09 Tucker Carlson’s partial confession and attempted repositioning27:55 Southern Poverty Law Center investigation30:57 Why weaponizing government requires prosecutors who are both MAGA and competent33:54 Afghans who helped the US possibly being sent to Congo35:08 Democracy Forward request involving Kash Patel records37:47 JetBlue pricing controversy and questions about data-driven fares38:33 mRNA pancreatic cancer breakthrough and RFK Jr’s funding cuts40:30 Vaccine politics, public health fallout, and transition into audience Q&A43:49 Encephalitis discussion and vaccine-preventable disease risks45:39 Shingles, chickenpox, and long-term nerve pain55:10 Medicare, preventive care, and who actually pays for vaccines62:12 Supreme Court shadow docket discussion63:33 Can Donald Trump pardon family members?65:25 Federal vs. state crimes and the limits of presidential pardons67:22 Late-show open chat: Kyiv, Southwest near miss, and final audience questions69:27 Show ends This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’m going to walk through the total clusterf--- of this weekend on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump’s constantly changing claims about what is and isn’t happening.Trump announced on Friday that the strait was open and that most things were agreed to, but the strait wasn’t really open, very few ships were moving, Iran reportedly had to approve transit, vessels were being charged millions, and the US was still blockading ships going to and from Iran. Then Iran said the strait wasn’t opening either, the US fired on an Iranian tanker, and now we’re somehow supposed to believe there are more talks on Wednesday even as Trump keeps insisting a deal is basically done and ready to be signed. I’m also going to get into the growing signs that Iran itself is split, with a real internal power struggle underway and reports that the IRGC is actively blocking efforts by the civilian leadership to cut a deal. I’m also going to talk about Trump himself completely losing it. He posted multiple unhinged, rambling screeds, claimed Israel didn’t talk him into the war, started relitigating the 2020 election, bragged about forcing regime change in Iran, and generally sounded like someone spinning out while events kept getting worse. Meanwhile, there’s new reporting that after an American fighter jet was shot down over Iran, Trump was screaming at aides for hours, obsessing over hostage crisis imagery, and had to be kept out of the room so people could do their jobs without him interrupting. And on top of that, the administration is no longer pretending high gas prices will be some brief little blip -- now even Trump’s own energy secretary is admitting nobody knows when prices are going back down. And then beyond Iran, I’m going to hit the bigger pattern of dysfunction and instability spreading everywhere. We’ve got reports that the US is holding up weapons deliveries purchased by European countries, Canada’s prime minister openly warning that America has become a source of disruption and weakness, Kash Patel filing a massive defamation suit while simultaneously promising arrests tied to election conspiracy claims, and new analysis suggesting Democrats now actually have a real shot at taking the Senate. I’ll also touch on Russia allegedly manipulating economic data to fool the West, Zelensky expanding long-term defense deals, and Bulgaria’s election putting a Kremlin-friendly political force in a much stronger position. So the through-line tonight is pretty simple: chaos abroad, chaos at home, and an American presidency that looks less in control by the day.0:00 Going live and getting all the platforms set up2:02 Opening the show and setting up the day’s news2:50 Labor Secretary pushed out amid scandal3:36 Iran turns into a total cluster and Trump’s false claims start unraveling5:00 Trump says the Strait is open, but ships are still being stopped7:05 The US blockade, Iran’s response, and why the Strait stayed effectively shut8:05 Trump keeps falsely claiming a deal is about to be signed9:12 Why Trump’s constant lying keeps fooling markets and the press10:20 Signs of a power struggle inside Iran10:51 The Economist reporting and the IRGC versus civilian leadership13:36 Trump’s insane tweets and his “regime change” spin15:58 Trump attacks Obama’s nuclear deal again17:00 Trump’s war rhetoric, contradictions, and what his comments may signal21:50 Trump’s bad war-history claims and the Iraq timeline detour25:28 Trump reportedly melts down after the US fighter jet is shot down27:40 The White House backs off its rosy gas-price claims28:57 The latest Iranian baby meme30:22 Gulf anger, US bases under scrutiny, and Trump musing about giving himself the Medal of Honor34:38 Kash Patel threatens arrests over the Russia probe35:05 The Atlantic allegations and Patel’s defamation lawsuit43:16 The US holds up weapons deliveries to Europe43:35 Canada says close ties to the US have become a weakness47:25 Democrats may actually have a real shot at taking the Senate48:06 Sweden says Russia may be manipulating economic data48:48 Zelensky expands long-term drone and defense deals50:05 Bulgaria’s election result is bad news for Ukraine50:43 Transition out of the main news block51:10 Dog health update: Sasha, Librela, and gabapentin52:10 Caucasus discussion after the Ukraine segment54:00 Arguing with ChatGPT about what counts as the Caucasus55:15 Quick discussion of how AI is useful and where it goes wrong57:20 More on using AI as an editor, not an oracle57:45 Dog medication dosing and precision issues with scales59:00 More on Sasha, Librela, gabapentin, and CBD63:20 Vet pricing rant and why everything in DC costs too much66:00 Dog dental pricing in DC versus elsewhere68:10 Chicago vet discussion and more pet-cost comparisons71:10 Wrap-up and sign-off starts72:05 One last breaking-news check before leaving73:10 Final Iran headline check74:10 Final sign-off across platforms This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the widening gap between what Donald Trump is claiming about Iran and what Iran is actually saying. Trump is out there insisting that Tehran agreed to everything -- that the Strait of Hormuz is open, that Iran won’t use it as a weapon, that the US will take Iran’s nuclear material, and that Iran will suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. But the facts on the ground, and Iran’s own public statements, tell a very different story. The strait still appears tightly controlled, ships are still being turned back, Iran is still asserting control over shipping traffic, and the core issues Trump claims to have solved don’t actually appear solved at all. I’ll also look at the deeper hypocrisy here, including Trump now considering a massive cash-for-uranium style arrangement after years of attacking Obama and Hillary Clinton for doing far less. Then I'll get into the broader fallout from this crisis -- military, economic, and political. That includes the continuing US blockade, Iran’s threat to shut the strait entirely if the blockade remains, the return of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the region, and what all of this means for oil markets and the global economy. I’ll talk about the stunning contradictions inside Trump’s own messaging, from gas prices to the economy, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent effectively saying Americans feel good even if they say they don’t. And I’ll cover fresh reporting that Spirit Airlines is now seeking emergency federal help because of soaring fuel costs, which gives you a pretty direct sense of how quickly these Middle East decisions are already hitting the real economy. And then I’ll turn to the political and cultural chaos surrounding Trump himself. That includes backlash from religious conservatives after Trump’s attacks on the Pope, Sean Hannity saying he’s leaving the Catholic Church, and Tucker Carlson openly raising the question of whether Trump fits biblical warnings about the antichrist. I’ll also cover the new House Judiciary Democrats probe into Jared Kushner’s role in Middle East negotiations while he reportedly continues private business dealings in the Gulf, Caitlyn Jenner’s appeal to Trump after her passport gender marker was changed, Trump’s bizarre comments about “corner stores,” his giant self-glorifying arch, and a few other stories that capture just how unhinged and surreal this political moment has become.0:00 Trump claims Iran agreed to everything4:25 Iran says no -- Hormuz still restricted, with tolls and Iranian control6:51 Ships turn back, checkpoints remain, and Trump’s “open strait” claim falls apart10:00 Iran rejects sending enriched uranium abroad10:06 Iran rejects Trump’s claim of an indefinite nuclear freeze11:50 US blockade stays in place, and Iran threatens to shut Hormuz again13:00 Trump’s reported $20 billion cash-for-uranium hypocrisy15:00 Trump attacks the Pope, but his own argument backfires18:13 USS Gerald R. Ford heads back to the region19:08 Traders place a massive bet on falling oil20:58 Sean Hannity says he’s leaving the Catholic Church23:27 Tucker Carlson floats whether Trump is the antichrist27:17 Bessent claims people secretly feel good about the economy28:23 Trump denies gas prices are above $430:15 Spirit Airlines seeks emergency help over fuel costs30:44 House Democrats probe Jared Kushner’s Middle East role31:08 Caitlyn Jenner appeals to Trump over passport gender marker33:09 Trump’s lawsuit against his own IRS gets even weirder35:28 Trump gets confused by the phrase “corner store”41:04 Trump says his giant arch will commemorate himself41:50 UFO-linked scientist death mystery and other unexplained cases This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sue, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll get into a bizarre and ugly convergence of war, politics, and religion. I’ll talk about Trump claiming Iran has agreed to hand back what he called the “nuclear dust” buried underground, while his administration keeps escalating the rhetoric around the war. And I’ll cover the increasingly surreal effort by Trumpworld to cast Trump as a kind of messianic figure -- from Trump’s own Jesus imagery to Pete Hegseth delivering an actual press conference sermon comparing Trump to Christ and the media to the Pharisees. I’ll also dig into Trump’s escalating attacks on Pope Leo, and the broader hypocrisy of all of this. Trump has been attacking the pope for criticizing the war and even framed it as part of his own political mandate, while Speaker Mike Johnson absurdly suggested the pope doesn’t understand just war doctrine. Meanwhile, Pope Leo responded in moral and sweeping terms, condemning those who manipulate religion and the name of God for military, political, and economic ends. (Yeah, wonder who that is?) I’ll also get into the bomb threat against the home of the pope’s brother, and why the climate Trump is helping create matters. Then I’ll widen out to the broader international fallout. I’ll cover the report that Europe has only about six weeks of jet fuel left, the data showing that most ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz since April 13 were affiliated with Iran, and the report that Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target US bases in the Middle East. I’ll also touch on Trump’s latest vanity-project spectacle -- a gigantic 250-foot arch planned for northern Virginia that even sympathetic architecture voices think is ridiculous. So it’s a show about war, propaganda, religious manipulation, global consequences, and the madness of Trump’s political moment.• 2:41 - Israel-Hezbollah truce and what it means for Lebanon• 3:17 - Trump says Iran will hand back the “nuclear dust”• 4:23 - Trump escalates his attacks on Pope Leo• 5:31 - Hegseth compares Trump to Jesus and the press to Pharisees• 12:19 - Pope Leo’s rebuke of war, tyranny, and weaponized religion• 19:17 - Trump administration cuts Catholic Charities contract for migrant children• 20:45 - Mike Johnson bizarrely lectures the pope on just war doctrine• 24:11 - Bomb threat at Pope Leo’s brother’s home• 28:36 - Europe’s jet fuel warning and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz• 28:59 - Report that Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target US bases• 29:22 - Trump’s gigantic northern Virginia arch plan• 31:05 - Russia’s latest large-scale strike on Ukraine• 31:51 - Trump makes a surprisingly normal vaccine-related personnel pick• 34:05 - Viewer discussion on AI propaganda, viral Trump memes, and who’s really making them• 53:14 - Viewer Q&A: Pam Bondi, Congress, Epstein fallout, Iran bargaining, and 2028 chatter This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the growing confusion -- and possible deception -- around Trump’s war with Iran. Trump is suddenly talking as if the war is already over, even while the US is sending thousands more troops into the region and keeping up a blockade that could still trigger a much wider conflict. I’ll get into Iran’s latest warning about shutting down Persian Gulf transit if the blockade hits its ships, the reports that Tehran may be looking for a limited off-ramp in Hormuz, and the obvious contradiction at the center of all this: if the war is supposedly winding down, why does everything on the ground look like it could be escalating instead? I’ll also walk through Trump’s latest barrage of lies, contradictions, and reckless rhetoric -- from his new claim that Iran was somehow just two weeks away from a nuclear weapon, to his bizarre comments about China, cyberattacks, and the Strait of Hormuz, to the fact that he keeps inventing new justifications for the war after the fact. And it’s not just Iran. We’re seeing signs of broader military instability too, including reports about Pentagon planning around Cuba, fresh concern over North Korea’s nuclear capacity, and more evidence that Trump’s foreign policy is making the US look erratic, untrustworthy, and dangerous even to countries that used to rely on us. And then I’ll broaden it out to the larger political picture -- because this isn’t only about war. It’s also about a president who mocks Jesus, attacks the Pope, shrugs off Chinese cyberattacks, keeps lying about the economy, and treats American promises like they’re meaningless from one day to the next. I’ll get into the fallout abroad, including anger from Saudi Arabia, Italy, Hungary, and beyond, plus the economic consequences here at home -- from weak tax refunds to summer travel fears and World Cup tourism worries. The bigger point is that under Trump, everything is unstable. And the world is reacting accordingly.0:00 Tax Day opener and why the tax system is absurd7:03 Iran -- is the war actually over, or is Trump setting up a new escalation?13:39 Hormuz blockade claims start falling apart17:34 Trump’s new “Iran had a nuke in two weeks” excuse22:04 North Korea’s nuclear buildup22:20 Europe’s postwar mine-clearing plan -- and Trump’s Greenland rant26:47 Trump mocks Jesus again30:31 Trump claims Iran’s neighbors never saw attacks coming31:45 Trump shrugs off China cyberattacks36:36 Trump says Xi sent him a “beautiful letter” on Iran36:54 Saudi Arabia says the era of relying on the US is over37:01 Italy, Meloni, and backlash against Trump40:15 Trump says the UK deal “can always be changed”44:40 JD Vance tells the Pope to “stop lying”47:26 Peter Magyar takes on Orban’s propaganda machine54:30 Jan. 6 pardons and a child exploitation case54:50 Daniel Dale fact-checks Trump’s Fox interview56:05 Meloni on Ukraine as a moral and strategic fight56:14 Vance boasts about cutting off Ukraine57:01 Trump reveals he has no real economic agenda1:00:22 World Cup tourism hit by inflation, war, and anti-American sentiment1:03:52 Tax Day reality -- Trump promised $1,000, people got about $3501:04:09 Russia threatens Europe again, and nobody cares1:04:14 John Eastman gets disbarred1:05:16 Pentagon war planning for Cuba1:11:29 More questions about the Hormuz blockade and the ships that got through1:09:24 Hungary, CPAC, and foreign money into the MAGA world This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump went on Fox and referred to the Iran war in the past tense, saying “it’s over.” But if it’s over, then why are thousands of new US troops arriving in the region? Why are we still talking about what happens in the next round of negotiations? Either he’s telling the truth, and just told Iran he’s done fighting, handing them a huge victory in the negotiations, or he’s planning to blow the hell out of Iran, and is lying as misdirection, something he does a lot.That same pattern showed up in the Administration’s shifting story about Iran itself. The Pentagon says no Iranian-linked ships have been allowed in or out since the blockade began, yet maritime data shows multiple Iranian or Iranian-linked vessels departing the Strait of Hormuz. So which is it?And then there’s Trump’s latest justification for the war: Suddenly Trump is claiming that Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear weapon. Sure, Jan. Mind you, Trump had already claimed months earlier that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” and would never come back. So which fantasy are we supposed to believe? That it was destroyed beyond repair, or that it was racing toward a bomb month’s later? The reasons keep changing because six or so weeks into the war, Trump still doesn’t know why we’re there.Trump also shrugged last night at reported Chinese cyberattacks with an “it is what it is” attitude, while also claiming Xi wrote him a beautiful letter promising not to arm Iran, and then turning around and sounding like he’s threatening China militarily anyway. Yeah, no dementia there. He veers from Iran to Greenland, from geopolitics to religious trolling, posting bizarre Jesus imagery while his own scandals hang over him. JD Vance lectures the Pope about theology, which is exactly as ridiculous as it sounds.And Trump just warned that even a trade deal with the UK “can always be changed,” effectively admitting that no one should trust the word of this government. Trump’s mendaciousness isn’t just about one war, one lie, or one outburst. It’s about what happens when the United States becomes known as a country whose commitments are temporary, whose explanations are disposable, and whose leaders treats growing instability as a virtue.A similar pattern is happening on the domestic side: Asked about the economy, Trump boasts about stock indexes, and brushes off rising oil prices, suggesting prices aren’t high at all! Then on tax day, today, Trump’s promised payoff to taxpayers turns out to be a fraction of what Trump promised us. The lies, the confusion, the downward spiral continue. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you sharon quinn, Mina D’Ambrosio, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll walk through the latest escalation in the Iran war, starting with the US blockade of Iranian ports using roughly 10,000 troops, more than a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft -- and the claim that no ships made it through, with several turned back. I’ll look at the strange contradiction in the US position: the Navy says it isn’t escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Washington is still telling commercial shipping that the passage is safe. And I’ll get into Trump claiming new talks with Iran could restart in two days, even as Europe is reportedly discussing a postwar coalition to help reopen shipping lanes -- possibly without the US.I’ll also cover the growing economic fallout. CNN reports wholesale inflation in the US has climbed to 4%, the highest annual rate in three years, driven in part by rising energy costs. The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that oil prices still may not reflect how serious the threat is if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted. And as Economist reporter Gregg Carlstrom points out, even if Iranian oil stops going to China entirely, China will just buy from somewhere else -- which means tighter global supply and higher prices for everyone else.Then I’ll turn to the political and cultural chaos swirling around the broader story -- from Orban, Serbia, Slovakia, and the Kremlin’s shifting posture, to JD Vance telling the Pope to stay in his lane on morality. I’ll also cover Trump’s new feud with Giorgia Meloni after she defended the Pope, the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Republican congressman Tony Gonzalez amid a new sexual assault allegation against Swalwell, Turkey putting LGBT activists on trial for the supposedly "obscene" behavior of kissing, a USDA Easter email that sounds more like government-sponsored evangelism, Ukraine reportedly capturing an enemy position using only robotic systems and drones, and one of the weirdest stories of the day -- the senior FEMA official who claims he was teleported to a Waffle House.7:45 - I cover the US blockade of Iranian ports and what it means for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz8:56 - I get into the Navy saying it isn’t escorting ships, while also telling vessels the strait is safe10:07 - I discuss Trump claiming Iran talks may restart in two days10:20 - I look at the reported European plan for a postwar coalition to reopen shipping11:43 - I cover rising oil prices, wholesale inflation, and why energy markets may still be underpricing the danger15:13 - I discuss Viktor Orban’s loss in Hungary and the broader regional implications17:13 - I get into the Orban-Serbia-Slovakia axis and the political ties behind it18:24 - I cover the Kremlin saying it and Orban were never really friends21:01 - I dig into the latest Trump-Pope fight and why Vance saying the Pope should stick to morality is absurd38:04 - I cover Meloni criticizing Trump’s attack on the Pope and the backlash in Italy39:49 - I discuss the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzalez amid scandal42:00 - I cover Turkey putting LGBT activists on trial over same-sex affection in public43:19 - I discuss Brooke Rollins’ Easter email to USDA staff and the bigger church-state problem49:07 - I cover Zelenskyy’s announcement that Ukrainian robots and drones captured a position without infantry50:11 - I discuss Andrew Harnik’s award-winning photo of Trump while a man collapsed nearby in the Oval Office55:49 - I cover the bizarre story of Trump’s FEMA official who claims he can teleport to Waffle House59:20 - I wrap up the news and shift into audience Q&A and dog update This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Sally, Teresa Hill, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I start with the biggest story of the night -- Trump’s Iran policy is getting more reckless, more chaotic, and more expensive by the hour. The US-Iran talks fell apart, Trump threatened to blockade the entire Strait of Hormuz, then partially backed off after the obvious problem was pointed out: other countries use that route too. But the walk-back doesn’t fix the core issue. Blocking Iranian shipping still means choking off oil flows, spiking prices, and raising the risk of direct confrontation with China or anyone else whose ships get caught in the middle. And then Trump goes on Fox and basically admits gas prices may not even come down by the midterms. I also get into the political fallout at home and abroad. JD Vance’s numbers are awful and getting worse. Viktor Orban lost in Hungary, which is a big deal not just for Hungary but for the global MAGA right that treat him as a role model. Then I pivot to Trump’s increasingly unhinged culture-war behavior -- attacking the Pope, posting an image of himself as Jesus on Orthodox Easter, and drawing criticism not just from liberals or the press, but from Catholic leaders and even conservative Catholics who normally bend over backward to excuse him. Then I wrap the show with a flood of smaller but telling stories that all point in the same direction: the White House is flailing. Trump TACO’d again and signed a small business bill after saying he wouldn’t sign anything until Republicans got their voting crackdown bill. His people staged a McDonald’s delivery stunt and tried to use an $11,000 tip-income worker as propaganda, even though someone making that little likely wasn’t paying federal income tax anyway. I also cover the Stonewall Pride flag reversal, bad new polling, worsening consumer pessimism, weak home sales, and the absurd drama around the White House Correspondents’ Dinner and the Wall Street Journal. The throughline is simple -- the administration is trying to project strength, but what it’s really projecting is panic, contradiction, and a total inability to control the consequences of its own actions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you M Hope, Teri D, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’m covering the complete chaos around Trump’s supposed Iran ceasefire, because at this point it barely qualifies as a ceasefire at all. Iran is still attacking Arab neighbors including Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain, while Israel is still hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz also still isn’t really open, despite Trump claiming otherwise. Iran says it won’t reopen it fully yet, may only allow limited passage even after that, and is now talking about controlling access, charging tolls, and forcing ships to register with the Iranian military. Meanwhile, there still appears to be no formal written ceasefire document at all.I’m also getting into the sheer absurdity of Trump’s shifting explanations for what deal even exists. First he claimed Iran sent demands and he agreed to most of them. Then the Iranians publicly floated a brutal ten-point list including reparations, sanctions relief, control of Hormuz, and a full US troop withdrawal from the Middle East. Then the White House said that plan was garbage and never accepted. Then Trump said there’s some other secret ceasefire that only he knows about. JD Vance claimed there were multiple Iranian plans causing confusion. At the same time, Trump is floating bizarre new ideas like a joint US-Iran tolling venture in Hormuz, claiming Iran may have agreed to recover buried uranium with the US, while also threatening giant tariffs on countries that arm Iran and separately hinting at sanctions relief. It’s incoherent, and none of it looks stable.And then beyond Iran, I’m covering a broader pattern of instability and extremism in Trumpworld. There were three big elections last night that showed major swings toward Democrats, even where Republicans still held on. Trump is also reportedly discussing possible steps away from NATO and moving US troops based on which allies he considers “good” or “bad.” On top of that, there’s a stunning report that Trump’s Pentagon threatened the Vatican in a closed-door confrontation, and another report that Trump wants to take money earmarked for the National Endowment for the Humanities and use it for a monument to himself near Arlington. So the larger theme tonight is not just war abroad, but a presidency that looks increasingly erratic, reckless, and completely untethered.0:02:37 - I open with why Trump’s Iran ceasefire is already falling apart0:04:09 - Iran attacks Arab neighbors and a key Saudi oil pipeline even after the ceasefire0:05:11 - Israel and Hezbollah keep fighting, and Lebanon becomes the first big ceasefire dispute0:06:44 - Iran’s alleged 10-point demand list and why it looks like Trump agreed to something awful0:07:46 - Trump melts down at CNN after Iran’s demands go public0:09:49 - Karoline Leavitt tries to walk it back and JD Vance adds a second, conflicting explanation0:11:26 - Trump claims there’s a different secret ceasefire nobody else knows about0:15:05 - Did Trump just hand Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz?0:16:39 - Iran’s reported plan to let only a dozen ships through and charge massive tolls0:18:52 - Whether Iran can legally close or control Hormuz under international law0:22:10 - The $2 million toll idea and Trump floating a joint US-Iran revenue scheme0:24:15 - Even Fox News undercuts Trump’s claim that Iran accepted his 15-point plan0:27:27 - Trump’s new claims about buried uranium and Iran giving up enrichment0:28:58 - Three big elections and why the swings toward Democrats matter0:32:36 - Trump’s latest NATO drama and what it means for Europe0:35:41 - The stunning report that Trump Pentagon officials threatened the Vatican0:38:49 - Trump’s plan to take NEH money and build a monument to himself near Arlington0:44:36 - Off-script: oil prices rebound and why markets may be waking up to how shaky this ceasefire really is. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Complete and utter chaos, as Donald Trump claims Iran has caved, the ceasefire is in effect, and the Strait of Hormuz is open. None of this is true.There is still massive fighting going on. Iran just attacked four Arab neighbors. The Strait of Hormuz is closed for the foreseeable future. And even when it reopens, Iran says maybe it’ll let ten ships through over the next two weeks. Maybe not. Normally, 80 to 100 ships a day go through. Oh, and Iran now says it’ll charge a toll. Can you smell the victory?As for the ceasefire, it’s a mess. Iran attacked Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain this morning. It also attacked a key Saudi oil pipeline running from the Gulf to the Red Sea, basically Saudi Arabia’s escape hatch around Iran. Israel continues to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says if Israel keeps hitting Hezbollah, then Iran won’t agree to the ceasefire. Israel says Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire because Hezbollah never agreed to it.Meanwhile, Trump claimed last night that Iran sent back ten demands, and that he was basically fine with most of them, which is why the ceasefire supposedly went into effect. But he also said Iran had better open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally. Then Iran released its demands publicly, and said, fine, here’s what Trump just agreed to. They included full US reparations, lifting all sanctions, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, and a full US troop withdrawal from the Middle East.Trump’s people then claimed the list was fake. Trump attacked CNN. Brendan Carr, that MAGA troll, threatened CNN too, even though he has no jurisdiction over CNN. But it wasn’t fake. CNN got it from the Iranians, and Iran published the demands. They’re real. They’re horrific. So did Trump agree to most of them? Who knows.Then Trump put out his own fifteen demands, and claimed, no, no, no, I meant Iran agreed to my demands. Iran said no, it didn’t. Even Fox News walked through Trump’s demands on air and kept saying Iran hadn’t agreed to any of it.What a mess.And it gets worse. Iran says it’s not actually reopening the Strait of Hormuz at all, at least not yet. And even then, it’s not exactly an unconditional reopening when it happens, which Trump promised us. To wit: Iran now says it’ll charge a toll, two million dollars a ship or a dollar a barrel. And every ship has to register with the Iranian military, or it will be destroyed. And it may not reopen for another day or two. And when it does, maybe Iran will allow ten ships over two weeks. Usually it’s 80 to 100 a day.This is a disaster. Before we invaded, the Strait of Hormuz was open to everybody. Nobody got charged. It was free transit through one of the world’s most important waterways.So ,Trump gets asked about Iran’s outrageous claim that it now controls the strait and will charge tolls. And he says this morning, yeah, yeah, maybe the US and Iran will both charge a toll and split the money! So now the US is partnering with Iran to pirate a global shipping lane and split the profits. Our new BFF, the gay ayatollah.Trump didn’t just TACO. He caved on everything. This is one of the biggest American military defeats in history. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I cover the latest chaos in Trump’s handling of the Iran war, starting with the rescue of a missing US servicemember and the extraordinary amount of sensitive detail Trump and his team are now publicly revealing about the mission. That’s not just loose talk. It potentially exposes methods, capabilities, and vulnerabilities while US pilots are still flying over Iran and similar rescue scenarios could happen again. I also get into Trump threatening the media outlet that reported the missing airman story, demanding the source and suggesting a reporter could be jailed. That’s authoritarian nonsense on its face, and it’s even more disturbing in the middle of an active war.I also break down Trump’s increasingly unhinged public messaging on Iran. Over the weekend he was threatening to “liberate” the country on one timeline, then another, then posting a profanity-laced Easter message about power plants, bridges, and the Strait of Hormuz, before delivering Iran remarks from the White House while standing next to the Easter Bunny. At the same time, he openly says he’d like to seize Iran’s oil but can’t because Americans want the war to end. He also claims the US sent guns to Iranian protesters through the Kurds, then complains the Kurds kept them. And while Trump insists the war could be over in days, the supposed Iranian concession he’s hinting at sounds suspiciously like a recycled version of the Obama-era nuclear position he spent years attacking.Beyond Iran, I also cover Trump’s latest attacks on NATO, which he now says he never needed because the alliance was merely being “tested,” along with his bizarre claim that NATO’s problems somehow “began with Greenland.” Then there’s the surreal moment where he tells little kids his autograph is worth $25,000 and segues into an autopen rant about Biden. I also hit several other major stories tonight: the Serbian false-flag allegation that appears to be unraveling, ICE detaining the newlywed wife of a US soldier training to deploy, and Zelenskyy’s highly significant visit to Damascus. And at the end of the show, we shift gears and track Artemis. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, Sue, Nelson Garcia, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On today’s show, I’ll talk first about Trump’s speech last night, and why it seems to have made things worse, not better. Instead of calming markets or reassuring the public, Trump basically hinted that this war could go on for a long time, while offering little real clarity about the endgame. And the fallout was immediate: oil prices jumped, the stock market initially fell, and traders clearly took his comments as a sign that this conflict is getting deeper, more expensive, and more dangerous. I’ll also break down the economic shock that’s now starting to hit. West Texas crude surged, Brent jumped, and the real-world price for physical oil shipments reportedly shot above $140, the highest since 2008. Gas prices were already high, and there are now warnings they could rise sharply in the next two weeks, with diesel climbing even more. Trump’s war is about to become a direct hit on the American economy. Then I’ll get into the broader fallout inside Trumpworld and across the country: the administration changing its story again about why this war is being fought, reports that top officials were caught off guard by how hard Iran hit back, new signs that even Republican voters are getting uneasy, and the larger question of whether Trump and his team actually understood what they were unleashing. After that, I’ll move into the rest of the day’s chaos, but the heart of today’s show is Trump’s speech, the fallout from it, and the rising oil prices that may end up defining this moment politically and economically.Here is today's show:0:00 Intro and setting up the show2:13 Pam Bondi fired and the Epstein fallout4:07 Trump’s speech last night and the immediate market reaction4:45 Hegseth pushes out Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George7:41 Why “dated Brent” matters more than futures right now8:41 Why Trump’s speech spooked the oil market19:06 Trump claims the US won’t need oil through the Strait of Hormuz21:33 Iran’s Hormuz threat and the new toll plan23:17 GasBuddy warns gas and diesel could jump higher25:42 Trump says war costs mean cuts to child care, Medicaid, and Medicare33:18 Trump’s coming budget fight: more defense, less domestic spending34:30 Rubio shifts the war rationale yet again35:14 Susie Wiles worries Trump is getting a sugarcoated view of the war38:00 Report says top Trump officials were caught off guard by Iran’s response41:28 Ground beef prices hit a record high41:49 New CNN poll shows cracks among Republicans on the war42:36 Trump mocks Macron43:15 Trump says he doesn’t have to follow the Presidential Records Act44:10 Alex Jones says Kash Patel may be next44:28 Trump’s presidential library as hotel and Qatar plane monument47:54 FEMA official claims he can teleport48:30 Matt Gaetz and the alien-breeding story49:35 Paula White compares Trump to Jesus50:44 Viewer Q&A on religion, politics, and Trump1:07:23 Hagiography tangent and wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I do something a little different and bring on Tasting History’s Max Miller for a live conversation about food, history, and the weird ways the two overlap.We start with how he built the channel, how The Great British Bake Off helped pull him into baking, and how that eventually turned into a career recreating recipes from centuries or even millennia ago. From there we get into his trips with fans to Jordan and Egypt, the history he experiences through travel, and why food ends up being one of the best ways to understand how people actually lived.Then the conversation gets into the really fun part: the food itself. We talk about garum, the ancient fermented fish sauce that sat at the center of Roman cooking, along with some of the grosser things he’s made, including jellyfish and boiled leather. We get into historic pumpkin cheesecake, long pepper, why old recipes are maddeningly vague, and how so much of pre-modern cooking was written by and for people who already knew what they were doing. That leads into a broader discussion of forgotten dishes, early chili, Welsh rarebit, and the challenge of figuring out what people in places like ancient Babylon or even prehistoric Europe were actually eating.The last part of the interview turns into a really interesting conversation about how taste changes over time. We talk about pastry “coffins” used for preservation, misconceptions people have about ancient food, the infamous Japanese ration balls that clearly did not impress him, and why some cultures treated recipes almost like state secrets. Then we get into something I always love: the way ingredients, technique, flour, sugar, pizza, chocolate, and even measuring cups all evolve over time. It ends up being a smart, funny conversation about history, but also about how much of what we think of as timeless food is actually the product of constant change.This was a really fun interview. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On this show, I lead with a judge finally slamming the brakes on Trump’s absurd White House ballroom project and reminding everyone that the White House does not belong to him. Then I turn to the Iran war, where the bigger story is that Trump now seems ready to declare victory and walk away even if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively in Iran’s hands. That matters because he keeps pretending Hormuz does not affect the US economy, while gas prices jump again, diesel surges, and oil markets keep whipping around based on whatever comes out of his mouth that day.From there, I get into the international and military fallout. Italy, Spain, and France are increasingly refusing to help, which tells you something about how isolated this operation is becoming. There’s also growing talk of a possible US ground move tied to buried Iranian uranium, and former General Mark Hertling warns that if Trump pushes Marines onto Kharg Island, they could be sitting ducks. I also cover Iran’s threats against major US companies, Karoline Leavitt’s stunning admission that top Iranian officials were killed because they lied in negotiations, and reports that the Pentagon is looking at anti-drone laser deployments in Washington.Then I pivot to the domestic side of the chaos. New polling shows Trump’s standing with independents is historically awful. NBC reports ICE may station agents outside Marine graduations to identify undocumented relatives. The Army suspends the Kid Rock helicopter aircrew. Trump quietly removes Russians from sanctions lists. Rubio goes after birthright citizenship. A judge backs Trump’s demand for records from Penn, and the show closes with a run through some of the weirder stories surrounding Trumpworld, including the look of his presidential library and the bizarre Kristi Noem report. The through-line is the same everywhere: chaos, overreach, and a government acting like rules are optional. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Tina Kimber, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’m covering how the war in Iran keeps expanding while the stated US goals keep shifting. Trump is now openly threatening to blow up Iran’s desalination plants and other civilian infrastructure, even as reports suggest the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of possible ground operations and a much broader phase of the war. I’ll also get into the latest signals that Washington is still trying to negotiate, while at the same time changing the public rationale for the conflict yet again.I’m also looking at how the war is widening across the region and beyond. That includes the growing threat around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthis’ formal entry into the conflict, the risks to shipping and energy markets, and the rising economic fallout from oil and jet fuel spikes. I’ll also cover reports that Iran struck US planes in Saudi Arabia, that American service members were wounded, that Russia may have provided satellite help before the attack, and that cracks are now showing inside NATO and among US allies over support for the war.And I’ll finish with the domestic political fallout, which is getting worse for Trump. New polling shows his numbers sinking, including on inflation, jobs, tariffs, immigration, and the Iran war itself, while Republicans are reportedly still considering cutting health care spending to help cover the costs. I’ll also touch on the humanitarian toll, including reports that a new US missile killed civilians in Iran, and then wrap with several other major stories in the news tonight, from immigration and tariffs to a strange Army helicopter incident and Trump officials rushing to dig up old FBI files on political enemies. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show focused on reports that the Pentagon is considering a much bigger escalation against Iran, including a possible “final blow” involving ground troops, bombing, and strategic islands, and why that looks less like an endgame than a recipe for wider war. I also covered Trump’s contradictory claims about the war and negotiations, rising gas and oil prices, inflation risk, attacks on NATO, possible diversion of Ukraine weapons to the Middle East, sinking poll numbers, and a long list of other Trump scandals and side stories, from TSA funding and Venezuela trading questions to Michael Flynn, Ukraine, private deportation jets, and the gold bust at Mar-a-Lago.Main show* 0:06:18 Trump postpones his Iran bombing deadline again, this time to April 6, and I break down why the “open the Strait or we bomb power plants” line is so dangerous.* 0:11:18 Trump’s tanker claim starts falling apart as Bloomberg reports there’s no evidence the ships he referenced even transited the Strait.* 0:11:53 The stock market drops 1.7%, its biggest fall since the war began, while oil starts rising again.* 0:12:20 Axios reports the Pentagon is weighing a “final blow” against Iran, including ground troops, bombing, and possibly Kharg Island.* 0:19:17 Reports that Russia may be sending drones to Iran, and why trusting Moscow here is absurd.* 0:19:53 Trump claims the war is “way ahead of schedule,” even though his own timeline doesn’t support it.* 0:22:42 Republicans look at cutting health care spending, including Obamacare, to help pay for the war.* 0:23:16 A Republican senator reportedly tells Semafor the operation is a predictable clusterf*ck and may require ground troops plus diplomacy.* 0:24:01 Gas, oil, and inflation all move higher as the economic hit from the war grows.* 0:26:00 Trump puts his signature on US currency while the country is at war and the economy is under pressure.* 0:29:00 Trump attacks NATO again and lies that NATO never came to America’s aid.* 0:32:00 The Pentagon reportedly considers diverting Europe-paid Ukraine aid to the Middle East.* 0:33:00 New Fox poll shows Trump’s approval falling to 41%.* 0:34:01 Gulf states may pull back promised investments as the regional economic fallout worsens.* 0:35:17 In other news: Senate Republicans push emergency action to keep TSA funded.* 0:35:35 Senate Democrats raise questions about possible Trump-related insider trading around Venezuelan bonds.* 0:39:01 The Justice Department payout to Michael Flynn and what it says about Trump-era corruption.* 0:43:00 Trump reportedly demands Ukraine give up eastern Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees.* 0:45:00 Why Russia is losing badly, despite Trump pressuring Ukraine to concede territory.* 0:47:00 Why America’s allies need to stop pretending Trump would really defend them.* 0:49:15 New report says Trump is deporting migrants on private jets at enormous cost.* 0:49:22 A gold bust of Trump appears at Mar-a-Lago.Post-show / hang / Q&A* 0:49:35 TikTok AI glitches and starts auto-generating “give them a shout out” prompts.* 0:52:14 Greek embassy event, meeting people there, and spotting Alex Marquardt.* 0:54:45 Back pain update and steroid injection.* 0:55:07 “No Kings” rally and DC crowd concerns during cherry blossom season.* 0:56:58 Trump’s “Ireland/island” confusion and Diego Garcia.* 1:00:29 More on Trump’s vanity projects, including the currency signature issue.* 1:03:54 TSA funding follow-up and what it says about Trump’s motives.* 1:09:34 Brief embassy food talk.* 1:10:13 Mention of the Iran AI baby video about Trump. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Here is today’s Iran War Update, exclusively for Substackers. Make sure to join me for tonight’s live show at 6pm ET, and for you paid subs, I’ve got a special hangout for you on Saturday at 11am ET. Thanks, JOHNTrump’s Iran war keeps getting sold to the public like it’s some kind of clean, controlled operation that’s moving “ahead of schedule.” That’s bull. The latest reporting says the Pentagon is looking at a so-called final crushing blow against Iran that could include ground troops, a massive bombing campaign, blocking Iranian oil exports, or even taking Kharg Island and other strategic islands. Okay, then what? If we go after Iran’s oil, they’ll go after everyone else’s oil. Saudi fields, Gulf infrastructure, shipping lanes, all of it. We already know how this works. And if the US tries to seize islands, what exactly is the plan after that? Are we permanently occupying them? Are our troops just sitting there as targets while Iran pounds them? And when we leave, what stops Tehran from going right back to choking the Strait of Hormuz? This is the same problem again and again with Trump’s wars: no serious endgame, just vibes, slogans, and the hope that brute force somehow solves the political problem it usually makes worse.And while that’s happening, Trump can’t even keep his own story straight. He says the war is “way ahead of schedule,” but his own timeline doesn’t show that at all. He says the Iranians are begging for a deal, then in the same breath says they’re blowing our negotiators off, and need to be threatened into seriousness. Pick one. Either they’re desperate to negotiate or they’re not.Meanwhile, the actual real-world consequences are piling up. Gas is now brushing up against four dollars a gallon nationally. Oil is surging. Inflation forecasts are rising. Iran is reportedly moving toward imposing new fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is basically a war-created toll booth on one of the most important waterways on earth. But Trump, in his usual fashion, says he’s surprised prices didn’t go up even more, because apparently he thinks the market is showing confidence in him. No, what the market is showing is stress. And the people paying for it are ordinary consumers.Then there’s the broader strategic mess. Trump is attacking NATO, again, absurdly claiming the alliance never came to America’s aid, when the one time Article 5 was invoked was after 9/11, on our behalf. And NATO came running to help us. He’s also diverting weapons that European countries bought for Ukraine, and redirecting them to the Middle East. That should tell you two things. First, he’s undercutting Ukraine, again. Second, this Iran operation is not going nearly as smoothly as he wants people to think, or they wouldn’t be scrambling for munitions. Even Republicans are describing the current situation as a predictable clusterf.And politically, the numbers are catching up with him. Even Fox has his approval at 41 percent, with independents and Latinos turning sharply against him. So this isn’t just a military gamble. It’s an economic gamble, a strategic gamble, and increasingly a political one too. And the bill, as usual, is getting handed to everybody else. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump keeps doing the same thing on Iran. He lies late in the day, the markets calm down, oil backs off a little, and then a few hours later we find out it was nonsense. That happened again with his ridiculous claim that Iran had given him some huge “gift” and that negotiations were going great. The “gift” turned out to be something the news already knew about: Iran had let a few tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That was not some major diplomatic breakthrough. It was not proof that Trump had things under control. It was spin. More accurately, it was market manipulation by messaging.And the deeper problem is that even the people Trump may be talking to in Iran may not actually be in charge. Axios reports the Iranian government is in chaos and struggling to communicate internally. That matters. Because if the regime itself is fragmented, then all of Trump’s bragging about progress becomes even more ridiculous. Progress with whom, exactly? Which faction? Which person? And do they actually have authority?Then you’ve got GOP Rep. Nancy Mace walking out of a classified Iran briefing today and saying she’s now even more opposed to US troops on the ground after what she heard. That is not the reaction of somebody who just got reassuring news. Maybe the most generous reading is that she wasn’t briefed on a ground invasion specifically, but on how badly things are going. The less generous reading is worse: that boots on the ground are being discussed because reopening the Strait of Hormuz may otherwise be impossible. Either way, it’s not good.The Washington Post then reports Trump has offered Iran a 15-point proposal that looks so extreme Iran is unlikely to accept it. That’s the part that worries me. Because Trump may be making impossible demands so he can pretend Iran “left him no choice.” If you pair that with reports of more ground-invasion US forces moving into place, it starts to look less like peace talks and more like stage-setting for escalation.And even if the US did something like seize Kharg Island or a strip of Iran’s coast to reopen the strait, then what? Robert Kelly laid this out well. How long do we stay? What happens when Iran comes back the minute we leave? What happens when Iranian forces start hammering those positions? Then we move farther inland. Then farther again. That’s mission creep. That’s how limited operations turn into open-ended wars.The White House isn’t helping. Karoline Leavitt went out there and basically said two opposite things in the same briefing. On the one hand, Iran supposedly recognizes it’s being crushed and is looking for an exit ramp. On the other hand, if Iran fails to understand that it has been defeated, Trump will hit it harder than ever. Which is it? Does Iran realizes it’s defeated or not? Those two claims don’t fit together. But that’s what happens when your briefing is built around spin and lies instead of the truth.And now NBC reports Trump is getting these curated little war montages from military officials, basically reels of American strikes and “stuff blowing up,” with comparatively little detail about Iranian actions. We even learned he reportedly wasn’t briefed promptly when US planes were hit at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. That’s insane. You cannot run a war like a toddler’s picture book. Keep it happy! Lives are at stake. And tens of billions of dollars are at stake. But once again, Trump is being managed emotionally, not informed seriously.The fallout is already here at home. Mortgage rates are back above 7 percent. Reuters has Trump getting crushed on cost of living, foreign policy, immigration, and the economy. Democrats are outperforming again in elections. And if this drags on, Larry Fink is warning about the possibility of much higher oil prices and a steep recession. So no, this is not “going great.” This looks like confusion, manipulation, and drift toward something far bigger than Trump is admitting. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show:The Trump administration is reportedly already shrinking its Iran war aims, and that tells you everything. They started out talking about regime change and ending Iran’s nuclear program. Now the goal is apparently just reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which could’ve been avoided by not attacking Iran in the first place. Worse, Iran may now have more leverage over the Strait than before, and Trump is reportedly even floating some kind of joint control arrangement over waterways that aren’t supposed to belong to anyone.At the same time, the White House is looking for off-ramps while still pouring more troops and aircraft into the region, with Gulf allies reportedly pushing Trump to go bigger. But that likely means ground war. And Americans want the opposite: new polling says they want this conflict ended fast. Then there’s the corruption angle. Suspiciously timed oil trades and Iran bets are piling up around Trump’s announcements, while gas prices are rising again after a major Texas refinery explosion.And the rest of the news is no less absurd. Trump reportedly killed a TSA funding deal because he didn’t want a deal with Democrats, so enjoy the airport lines. The administration may host Lukashenko. Hungary is openly briefing Russia after EU meetings. Ukraine hit a major Russian oil hub, and Russia reportedly lost more than 6,000 troops in four days. And because hypocrisy is the only constant, Trump called mail-in voting cheating, then voted by mail himself. That’s where we are: smaller war aims, bigger risks, public opposition, insiders cashing in, and Trump still all over the place. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe