Iran Chaos, Live with John Aravosis

On tonight’s show, we’ll be discussing Trump openly threatening to bomb our ally Oman over a possible Iran shipping deal in the Strait of Hormuz, while reports suggest Iran and the US are quietly negotiating a framework agreement that could reopen Gulf shipping and eventually lift parts of the blockade. But even if a deal is announced, there’s a huge question nobody in Washington seems to want to answer -- would oil companies, shipping firms, and insurers actually trust Trump and Iran enough to go back to normal business? Because markets are already signaling they don’t believe this crisis is ending anytime soon.We’ll also talk about reports that Trump is negotiating over releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds -- essentially paying Iran to get back to a situation that already existed before Trump tore up the Obama nuclear deal. Plus, CNN reporting that oil futures markets don’t expect oil prices to fully normalize until 2032, Stephen Miller falsely claiming fraud alone could balance the federal budget, and new reporting that DHS is considering pulling customs and immigration operations from major Democratic-run cities right before the World Cup and major international travel season.And we’ll cover the GOP civil war exploding in Texas between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, Republicans panicking over Democrat James Talarico, Russia escalating hybrid warfare and sabotage attacks across Europe, NATO preparing rapid-reinforcement plans for the Baltics, Russia threatening Elon Musk over Starlink in Ukraine, and Trump getting hammered by another report showing taxpayers massively overpaid for repairs to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.0:00 Stream issues, Substack problems and opening monologue3:45 Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Strait of Hormuz negotiations9:20 Why Oman matters strategically for the US and Gulf shipping14:05 Iran reportedly circulating draft framework agreement with the US19:10 Why markets still don’t trust a US-Iran deal to hold24:40 Greg Carlstrom and Hudson Institute warnings about a fake peace29:15 Trump reportedly negotiating over billions in frozen Iranian funds35:00 CNN report: oil futures don’t expect prices to normalize until 203240:30 Why gas prices may stay elevated even if Hormuz reopens45:20 DHS proposal to halt customs and immigration operations at major airports50:15 World Cup travel concerns and economic fallout from airport shutdowns54:30 Stephen Miller falsely claims fraud could balance the federal budget59:45 Trump jobs claims collapse under the actual employment numbers1:03:10 Ken Paxton vs John Cornyn turns into brutal GOP civil war1:08:40 Republicans panic over Democrat James Talarico in Texas1:12:20 National Park Service massively overpays contractor on Reflecting Pool repairs1:15:50 Russia escalating sabotage and hybrid warfare across Europe1:19:45 Russia threatens Elon Musk over Starlink support for Ukraine1:22:10 NATO preparing rapid-reinforcement plans for Latvia and Estonia1:24:50 Russia bombs UN food warehouses in Ukraine1:27:15 Final discussion, audience questions and wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe