Iran could be the flashpoint for market dislocation

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 24th, 2026: Iran could be the flashpoint for market dislocation“Do not defy the fates and bring shame on Rome.”Markets aren’t much concerned about Iran. US Military might is expected to prevail, cowing the Ayatollahs into acceptance of Trump’s maximalist demands. What could possibly go wrong? Trump is no student of history, and may not understand the gamut of military, logistical and geopolitical risks aligned against him.Does the markets’ fixation on AI mean they are missing what might be main event? In 53 BC Marcus Licinius Crassus, the senior member of the Roman Triumvirate (and richest man in Rome) was nervous of Caesar’s rising popularity from his military successes in Gaul. Crassus led the 7 legions of the Eastern Army into the desert to restore and enhance his own military lustre – incidentally a move made without the approval of the Senate and People of Rome (“SPQR”).  His army was annihilated by Persian heavy cavalry and horse archers at the Battle of Carrhae. Glancing through the stock market commentaries this morning the noise is all about the end of the first soft “industrial” age; the collapse in software stocks – dinosaurs replaced by evolved AI. Investors are wondering how much more damage AI will inflict upon businesses. Every firm that employs folk to actually think is at risk. How the global economy evolves as a result of AI will have profound market implications tomorrow – but today the imminent threat might be elsewhere. Markets are often blind. Analysts are pitching investment strategies bar-belling the soft side of the economy in terms of hyperscalers and industrials for the hard stuff, while shorting the soft middle. Next up in the tumbril for the AI guillotine will be banks and investment managers, because AI is going to do it all so much better. Quite who the AI Revolution is going to leave in a job, earning enough money to actually consume anything in this new economy, is…. unclear.Maybe put that stuff aside for a moment.  Today? Buy missile producers, buy tank makers, buy weapons. We might be about to get a thumping great lesson in logistical facts, economic reality, and geopolitical shifts. Let me explain in a word: Iran.