Iran, Oil Prices, AI Stocks & Market Risks: Episode #179

Rising tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher and reignited concerns about inflation, interest rates and global growth. In this episode, Shane Oliver and Diana Mousina unpack the implications of the Iran conflict, the outlook for US and Australian economies, whether AI and technology stocks can continue their strong run, the latest on Trump's tariff policies, and what it all means for share markets over the months ahead. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 24 July 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group00:00 Introduction00:20 Iran conflict and rising oil prices01:42 Strait of Hormuz and global energy supply risks03:05 Energy reserves and US political implications03:43 Trump's Middle East dilemma05:19 Could the conflict become a prolonged war?06:48 Why share markets have stalled07:09 Tech sector concerns and semiconductor weakness07:50 US earnings season and market expectations08:18 AI boom: bubble or long-term opportunity?09:43 Global inflation trends10:08 US inflation and the Fed outlook11:30 Interest rate risks for markets12:14 Trump's latest tariff proposals12:59 Canada tariffs and trade impacts13:51 Forced labour tariffs explained15:22 The broader impact of trade policy16:35 Share market outlook and key risks17:01 What investors should watch next17:22 12-month market outlook17:49 Australia's economy, rates and living standards18:22 Perspective on economic conditions18:48 Closing remarks