Iran vs. Israel: War Room Analysis

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: Good Morning. Bretton Woods Three is a Process, Not an EventToday:* Friday activity, Iran attacks* Premium: Goldman on the Russian Metals BanYesterday’s Activity:US equities sold off sharply on Friday amid rising geopolitical concerns.Premium Commentary Goldman Says Stay long copper and aluminiumIt is important to recognise that these exchange focused rule adjustments are taking place in an environment where fundamentals for copper and aluminium are inflecting into a sustained tightening direction, after two benign years for fundamentals in 2022 and 2023.Indeed, the strong performance of the industrial metals complex over the year so far is a trend we expect to gather momentum ahead. This view particularly resonates with copper and aluminium,Much more at bottom…Price Action:* Gold- * Silver- * Miners- * Oil- * BTC/ETH- * Stocks- * Bonds- YCC is coming* Dollar- steady as she goes.Market News: Geopolitical risk rose over the weekend with Iran’s attack on Israel. We will be watching oil prices, currency/Treasury markets, and how this event shifts investor perceptions of future Fed policy. Gold as well obviously. Crude prices are The US’s chief concern.GEOPOLITICSPax Americana is ending * What happened?Iran attacked Israel directly* Why did Iran do that?Because they’re Israel and Iran* How successful was it? materially, little to no, data wise, excellentIsrael support sites missile failuresIran support cites penetration to airbase as goal* What was Israel’s responseNo response within 48 hoursAsymmetric, commensurate, or weakDifficulty in air attack, US involvement* Why did they do that?Possibly US request, “Take the Win”Possibly Israel knows a multi front war is not winnable w/o nukes* What will happen next?That’s the question.. no response, delayed response or coordinated responseUS Politics and Israeli politics matter* ALL MSM Stories HERESome headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrekData on Deck:* MONDAY, APRIL 15 8:30 am U.S. retail sales March * TUESDAY, APRIL 16 8:30 am Housing starts 1:15 pm Fed Chair Powell speaks * WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17 2:00 pm Fed Beige Book* THURSDAY, APRIL 18 8:30 am Initial jobless claims* FRIDAY, APRIL 19 10:30 am Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaksPremium: * Goldman’s Analysis attached below