″🟡 Iran War continues, Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sharp drop in Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan, Alibaba AI agent mystery || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #10/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: The Iran War continues, with the US and Israel continuing to strike targets in Iran and Iran continuing to launch drone and missile attacks. Iran is launching decreasing numbers of missiles over time. Will the US place at least 1,000 US troops in Iran before May? Our forecasting team gives this a 21% (7% to 38%) chance. Will there be more than 100 combined US and Israeli deaths before July? Forecasters think there's a 38% (15% to 60%) chance. Will weekly shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to at least 75% of pre-war levels before April and before May? Our forecasters think there's a 39% (20% to 58%) probability before April, and a 61% (50% to 75%) chance before May. What will be the maximum Brent crude oil price before April and before May? Forecasters estimated maxima of $135 ($110 to $150) and $143 ($112 to $175) respectively. Will the month of April see no airspace closures outside Iran that are related to the Iran War? Forecasters think there's a 39% (30% to 55%) chance of this happening. And: Trump continues to hint that he’d like to see [...] --- Outline: (00:23) Executive summary (03:18) Geopolitics (03:21) Middle East (06:52) Asia (08:51) Europe (09:19) The Americas (10:08) Economy (13:00) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: March 9th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-continues-strait-of-hormuz --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.