Iran War Update, Live with John Aravosis

Thank you Julia D Lanford, PoutySum8 🐸, Sally, Kaitlin, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app. A week into this war, the one thing the Trump administration still cannot tell us is what it thinks it is doing. On one hand, Trump is suddenly hinting that the war may be nearly over, that we’re “very far” ahead of schedule, and that he already has someone in mind to replace Khamenei. On the other hand, we’re also hearing reports that he’s considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz and killing Iran’s new leader. Hegseth goes on 60 Minutes and says the war is “just beginning,” while the Pentagon posts that “we have only begun to fight.” So which is it? Are we winding down, or are we escalating into a larger regional war? On tonight’s show, I cover:0:03 Trump’s press event turns out to be mostly nonsense after reports he might be about to end the war8:08 Trump says the war may be “pretty much over,” even as his own team says the opposite8:31 Trump claims the US is “very far” ahead of the war’s original timeline9:30 Trump talks about killing Iran’s new leader and taking over the Strait of Hormuz10:09 The administration’s war goals change again: missiles, missile factories, and Iran’s navy11:46 A seventh US servicemember dies: Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington of Kentucky12:38 Trump says he may take over the Strait of Hormuz and may kill Iran’s new leader13:00 Iran picks Khamenei’s son as successor, raising fears the regime could become even more radical14:36 New reports say Delta Force may be needed to secure Iran’s nuclear fuel15:37 Oil briefly spikes to $130 a barrel, and Trump appears to have tried calming markets16:48 JPMorgan’s blunt assessment of how the war ends: munitions, markets, and midterms17:20 New NPR/PBS/Marist polling shows weak public support for the war18:42 Lindsey Graham criticism, Israel’s strikes on Iranian oil facilities, and widening regional fallout19:56 Trump reportedly considers lifting more oil sanctions on Russia20:39 New evidence points to the US strike on the girls’ school in Iran, despite Trump’s denials22:45 Trump’s mixed messaging on the school strike and whether he is backing off the war23:45 Trump shows up to the transfer of fallen US troops wearing a baseball cap and merch28:23 Explosion damages the entrance to the US Embassy in Oslo29:06 Anthropic sues the Pentagon after refusing to help build mass-surveillance and autonomous weapons systems29:10 Major Havana Syndrome revelations after reports of a possible microwave weapon tied to Russia38:59 Trump’s bogus claim that the war is ahead of schedule gets even harder to defend42:56 More on Iran’s new leadership and why regime change could make things worseLater viewer Q&A / bonus topics:50:23 No, there is not going to be a military draft, and the boots-on-the-ground rumor got distorted53:30 Why Democrats are favored to retake the House, and why the Senate is suddenly more competitive55:17 Gas prices, oil shock fallout, and what Americans may see next at the pump1:05:56 A weird but funny detour into Canadian gallons, imperial measurements, and why metric never fully took over in the US This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe