Iran War Update: Trump TACOs again

Trump is caving again on Iran. And not quietly.Last week, he was telling us the Strait of Hormuz was closed because he closed it. Not Iran. Him. Iran was supposedly begging him to reopen it, and he said no, because he could keep it shut for weeks or months until Iran was desperate. Very tough. Very strong. Very alpha, as long as you don’t wait four days.Today, Trump suddenly decided he needed to reopen the strait immediately. First, he told the press that the US Navy would force its way through with military escorts and reopen the shipping lane by force. Then, as usual, Trump flip-flopped again. The actual plan turned into two US-flagged commercial ships following some Navy ships checking for mines. Two ships. In a waterway that normally sees something like 150 ships a day. Congratulations. We’ve invented the world’s most expensive maritime participation trophy.Then Iran started firing. Missiles and drones at US forces and merchant vessels. Missiles at the UAE. Iran even claimed it hit a US Navy ship, while the US denied it. In normal times, I’d believe the US military. Under Donald Trump, who lies the way other people breathe, who knows. And that’s one of the most dangerous things he’s done to this country: He’s made it harder to trust the US government, even when the government may be telling the truth.In spite of all this, Trump says the ceasefire isn’t broken. Which is fascinating, because generally when the other side is firing missiles at you, we call that “not a ceasefire.” Silly me.The economic piece is just as bad. Oil jumped again. Gas is now around $4.47 nationally. Diesel is hitting all-time highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. And this is the same man who promised gas under $2 a gallon, and said he’d cut energy prices in half within 12 months. We’re now 15 months in, and prices went the other direction. Not only did he fail. He failed big time.As for Trump officials claiming the past few days that “it was worse under Biden” not really. National gas prices were over $4 during Biden’s term only from March to August 2022. That’s it. Trump is already back over $4. He owns this. He promised to cut energy prices, and he’s raised them. He promised to cut inflation, and he raised it.Then there’s Ukraine, where the picture is increasingly brutal for Russia. Russia captured only 68 square miles last month, while losing thousands of vehicles and tens of thousands of troops killed and wounded. At that rate, as Frank Luntz noted (citing Forbes), Russia would take the rest of Ukraine sometime around the year 2256, at the cost of roughly 101 million casualties. So yes, Russia is still dangerous. But this is not the triumphant war machine Putin wants everyone to imagine.And that’s exactly why Europe is worried. Not necessarily that Putin is about to roll tanks into Poland. More likely, he tries something ambiguous. A drone operation. A Baltic Sea incident. Something in the Arctic. A shadow-fleet provocation. Something designed to scare Europe, split NATO, and make everyone argue about whether Article 5 applies.And Trump is making that more likely. He’s pulling 5,000 US troops out of Germany, including frontline troops we routinely deploy to Eastern Europe. These are exactly the kinds of forces that would matter if Putin tested NATO. So once again, Trump is doing something that helps Vladimir Putin. He can yell “Russia, Russia, Russia” all he wants. But for whatever reason, Trump is always on Putin’s side.Then, because apparently we don’t have enough wars, Trump also said the US will be taking over Cuba “almost immediately.” Remember when he ran on ending foreign wars? Now he wants to raise defense spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion — so he can fight even more wars — while threatening Cuba, Greenland, Panama, Venezuela, Gaza, and who knows who’s next.Domestically, the authoritarian freak show continues. As you know, former FBI Director Comey posted a picture of seashells on a beach arranged to say “86 47.” The phrase means “get rid of Trump, dump Trump, toss Trump, take him off the menu.” It does not mean “I am personally planning an assassination,” which is what Trump’s Justice Department is now trying to claim.Trump’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, made the problem worse (for Trump). He was asked whether all the people selling 86 47 merchandise online should also worry about prosecution. He said of course not. Because the phrase is used constantly. Exactly. That’s the point. If the phrase itself isn’t enough to prosecute everyone else, then it isn’t enough to prosecute Comey. Unless the real rule is: it’s legal when random people say it, but illegal when Trump wants revenge.Blanche also claimed that the indictment is based on something else entirely — some mysterious “other” evidence to prove that James Comey is really Squeaky Fromme. Except the indictment itself is about the seashells. That’s it. That’s the case. It’s not that long an indictment, and the entire thing is about seashells. If they had all this alleged other evidence, why isn’t it in the indictment? Why didn’t they present it? Why is the entire charging document about the seashell post? It’s not law enforcement. Because they’re likely lying again.Next topic, election theft. Blanche gave us another classic: He said we should require voter ID because you have to show ID every time you walk into a restaurant. What restaurants is this man going to? Unless he’s talking about strip clubs, most adults do not show ID to enter a restaurant. You show ID if you’re young and ordering alcohol. That’s not the same thing as voting.Meanwhile, Trump’s numbers are cratering. Harry Enten says Trump’s net approval is now the worst ever for him. His support among GOP-leaning independents has collapsed from 91 percent in 2024 to 53 percent job approval now. His $1.5 trillion defense spending plan is opposed by nearly two-thirds of Americans. And more Americans, a solid majority, now say he isn’t physically healthy enough to serve.Which brings us to Trump bragging again about cognitive tests. He keeps saying he’s taken three of them, and aced them. He doesn’t seem to understand what he’s admitting. Doctors don’t usually give you three cognitive tests for fun. They give them because they’re worried about dementia, Alzheimer’s, cognitive decline — and you don’t get three unless things are getting worse. Also, when Trump says the tests are hard, that’s not the flex he thinks it is. They’re not supposed to be hard, UNLESS YOU HAVE DEMENTIA.So tonight’s show was Iran, oil, Ukraine, NATO, Cuba, Comey, voter suppression, Trump’s collapsing polls, Hegseth lying about troops at polling places, and Trump bragging about dementia tests. In other words, our foreign policy is dangerous, the economy is getting uglier, the authoritarianism is getting louder, and the people in charge are still somehow dumber than the crisis they created. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe