Is a Recession Coming?

Lately commentators have been trying to predict the next recession. But what would you look at to try and tell for yourself what the numbers are? In this episode Derek Moore reviews the 5 areas that the NBER per their site uses to develop their criteria to call recessions. What is a recession? NBER historical list of recessions Real GDP Growth Rate Real Median Income Growth in the U.S. Unemployment Rate Retail Sales Monthly Growth Rate Industrial Production Index Real versus Nominal Growth Rates Mentioned in this Episode: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDP Now Forecast https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx United States Real GDP Growth Rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth United States Inflation Rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED Retail Sales Monthly growth rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RETAILMPCSMSA US Annual Median Real Wage Levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N US Real Median Personal Income Levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N US Civilian Unemployment Rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE US Industrial Production Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO Atlanta Fed Real Wage Growth Tracker (more updates) https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx Atlanta Fed Real Wage Growth by Job Switcher and Job Stayer https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx Book: Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/31oy1hE Razor Wealth Management www.razorwealth.com