Is the labor market about to fall off a cliff?

This episode examines whether the U.S. labor market is on the brink of a sharp decline. It reviews key data from April—such as slowing private sector employment growth and moderate increases in hourly earnings—and argues that despite decelerating job gains, the labor market remains resilient. The discussion differentiates between a technical recession and a severe downturn, outlines a deflationary risk-off portfolio strategy (favoring defensive assets, low beta, large caps, and treasurys over riskier instruments), and evaluates multiple quantitative signals including market regime and liquidity trends. The podcast closes by addressing client concerns about market indecision and the potential for regime shifts, advising investors to remain vigilant for confirming signals in this uncertain environment.