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EPISODE · Dec 9, 2025 · 42 MIN

Ish

from Tea and Crumpets · host Will Brown & Adam Eagleston, CFA

After Thanksgiving, we take a look at poultry, especially how dove-ish the Fed is now expected to be, a sharp reversal from a few weeks ago. We also discuss the odds-on favorite for the next Fed chair and how his political leanings may (or may not) influence which direction the Fed takes. Recent employment data has been lackluster, to put it mildly, which is forcing the Fed's hand as it relates to continued cuts. To wit: Total change in private employment – Negative 32k Manufacturing and construction – Negative 27k Small businesses – Negative 100k Wage growth, especially for lower income households, is rapidly slowing, and those households spend, on average, over 70% of income on food, shelter, and transportation, all of which are seeing price increases that exceed wage growth. It seems like more pressure could be imminent on both wages and employment as AI continues to make inroads. We take a detour away from economics into the carnage in the cryptocurrency space and what it may mean for certain types of companies that have built their business models on owning crypto. In the second half of the show, we juxtapose the threat of AI for employees with the opportunity for employers. AI has been the savior in terms of growth and price appreciation for the stock market. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, earnings for technology and communications stocks have grown 121% versus a mere 27% for all other sectors. That trend is expected to continue in 2026, with the Mag 7 forecasted to grow over 20% versus 11% for the other 493 stocks. We also discuss just how big the Mag 7 are, with some individual members of the group larger than entire sectors of the economy from a market cap perspective. We discuss whether that is healthy (or sustainable) and why a broadening market is potentially overdue (not to mention healthy). Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

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This episode was published on December 9, 2025.

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