ISMS 12: CPI Racing Across the Globe

Is global CPI going to follow the US CPI slowdown?Global MarketsGlobal CPI has leveled off and is slowing in DMs, but still rising in EMsEconomies across the world have GDP of about US$90trn and an average CPI rate of 7.4%The developed world has GDP of US$52trn and CPI of 6.9%And the emerging world has GDP of US$38trn and a higher 8.2% CPI rateWorld Jan. 2023 CPI was 7.4%, up 2.1ppts YoY; MoM DM continues to fall, while EM is risingDM Jan. 2023 CPI was 6.9%, up 1.5ppts YoY, but falling slightly MoMEM Jan. 2023 CPI was 8.2%, up 2.9ppts YoY, and is rising MoMKey pointsGlobal CPI was 7.4% in January, up 2.1ppts YoY, but it was flat MoMDeveloped world CPI was 6.9%, up 1.5ppts YoY, but falling slightly MoMEmerging world CPI in January at 8.2%, up 2.9ppts YoY, and it rose MoMDeveloped Markets RegionsCPI is contained in DM Americas, peaking in DM Europe, and rising in DM AsiaWith in the Developed Markets, DM Americas is the largest with US$25trn of GDP and 6.3% CPIDeveloped Europe has US$15trn of GDP and a higher 8.3% CPIDeveloped Pacific is smaller at US$8trn and has the lowest CPI of the developed regions at 5.1%DM Americas CPI falling, DM Europe peaking, DM Asia rising12 months ago, DM Americas had a 7.4% CPI which is now down to 6.3%, a 1.1ppts fallThis means that CPI went from 2.1ppts above the global average to 1.1ppts belowDM Europe rose from 4.4% 12 months ago to 8.3%, up 3.8pptsThis means it went from 0.9ppts below to 0.8ppts above the global averageCPI is racing up in DM Pacific from 1.5% 12 months ago to the current 5.1%, that’s a 3.6ppts increaseIt has gone from 3.8ppts lower than World CPI to 2.4ppts lowerKey pointsDM Americas 6.3% January CPI is down from 7.4% 12 months ago; and has now shifted from being 2.1ppts above the global average to 1.1ppts belowCPI nearly doubled in DM Europe over the past 12 months from 4.4% to 8.3%, shifting from about 1ppts below to 1ppts above the global averageCPI in the must smaller DM Pacific region raced up from 1.5% 12 months ago to the current 5.1%; despite that massive 3.6ppts increase, it remains about 2.4ppts lower than the global averageEmerging MarketsEM CPI rising in Asia, Middle East and Africa, and Frontier markets on fireEM Americas had a small GDP of US$3.8trn and CPI of 7.9%EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$25.7trn and 3.2% CPIEM Europe had US$3.9trn GDP and a massive 23% CPIEM Middle East and Africa had a small US$1.7trn GDP and a high 10.2% CPIFinally, Frontier markets had US$2.9trn GDP and 30% CPIEM CPI rising in Asia, Middle East and Africa, and Frontier markets on fireEM Americas CPI was 7.9% in January, down slightly from 8.5% 12 months agoEM Asia CPI went from a tiny 1.9% 12 months ago to 3.2% and is still 4.3ppts below the World CPIMost notably, this has ticked up slightly MoMEM Europe CPI was 23% and over the past two months has been falling; though it is still 15.5ppts above the World averageEM ME&amp;A CPI was 10.2% compared to 3.7% 12 months ago. It has now risen to be 2.8ppts above the world average compared to 1.7ppts below 12 months agoConsumer prices are on fire in Frontier markets up 30% YoY in January; this is double where they were 12 months ago; CPI keeps rising MoM and is now 22.5ppts above the world averageKey pointsEM Americas CPI was 7.9% in January, down slightly from 8.5% 12 months agoEM Asia CPI went from a tiny 1.9% 12 months ago to 3.2% and is still 4.3ppts below the World CPI. Most notably, this has ticked up slightly MoMEM Europe CPI was 23% and over the past two months has been falling; though it is still 15.5ppts above the World averageEM ME&amp;A CPI was 10.2% compared to 3.7% 12 months ago. It has now risen to be 2.8ppts above the world average compared to 1.7ppts below 12 months agoConsumer prices are on fire in Frontier markets up 30% YoY in January; this is double where they were 12 months ago; CPI keeps rising MoM and is now 22.5ppts above the world averageDeveloped MarketsCPI is flattening in major developed markets, led by US CPI fallTop five DM countriesOnly US CPI is falling YoY; UK has started falling MoM; Germany, Japan, and France are risingUSA CPI was 6.4% in January, down from 7.6% a year ago; it has gone from 2.2ppts above the global average to -1.1ppts belowFebruary just came out for US CPI at 6.0%. Unfortunately, February numbers are not out for all the other countries, so we focus now on JanuaryJapan's CPI went racing up from 0.5% 12 months ago to 4.4% in January; though it remains at a deep discount to the global average, it appears to be closing that gapGermany's CPI doubled from 4% 12 months ago, which was 1.4ppts below the worldwide average, to 8.8% now, 1.3ppts above the global averageUK CPI started 12 months ago relatively high at 5.4% and is now has doubled to 10.2%; though it has fallen slightly MoMFrance's CPI was a low 3% a year ago and has doubled to 6.1%, which is still 1.3ppts below the global averageKey pointsUSA CPI fell to 6.4% in January and 6.0% in February, going from 2.2ppts above the global average to 1.1ppts belowJapan's CPI increased by 8x from 0.5% 12 months ago to 4.4% in JanuaryGermany's CPI doubled to 8.8%, going from 1.4ppts below the worldwide average to 1.3ppts aboveUK CPI doubled to 10.2%; though it has fallen slightly MoMFrance's CPI doubled to 6.1%, which is still 1.3ppts below the global averageEmerging MarketsCPI uptick in EM Asia giants, China and India, could keep EM CPI risingEmerging worldCPI is rising YoY in China, India, Korea, and Russia; falling only in BrazilChina's CPI at 2% is low but rising; 12 months ago, it was at 0.8%, and it has been slow to rise, partially because of the covid lockdown; it is 5.4ppts below the global average and could rise substantiallyIndia's 6.5% CPI was almost flat compared to 12 months ago, hovering at about the global averageKorea CPI at 5.2% has been steady at about 2ppts below the global average and is up 1.7ppts from 3.5% 12 months agoRussia's CPI was 11.8% in January and has been on a steady decline from its 18% peak in April 2022 near the start of the war; though it is still 4.3ppts above the global average12 months ago, Brazil was struggling with about 10% CPI, but previous aggressive rate hikes have cut CPI in almost half to 5.8%, taking it from 4.9ppts above the global average to 1.7ppts belowKey pointsChina's 2% CPI is 5.4ppts below the global average and could rise substantiallyIndia's 6.5% CPI has been steady at about the global average, low risk of shockKorea CPI 5.2% was up 1.7ppts but has been steady at about 2ppts below the global averageRussia's CPI has been on a steady decline from its April 2022 18% peak to 11.8%Over the past 12 months, Brazil cut its CPI in half to January's 5.8%, moving it from 4.9ppts above the global average to 1.7ppts below&nbsp;Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs&nbsp;Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence<a...