EPISODE · Oct 5, 2023 · 20 MIN
ISMS 31: Global CPI saw 2nd MoM uptick in August
from My Worst Investment Ever Podcast
Will the global CPI slowdown continue? Or will it rebound?Global MarketsGlobal CPI saw 2nd monthly uptick in August, DM remains below Global; DM and EM are now on the riseEconomies across the world have a GDP of about US$97trn and an average CPI of 5.1%DM has US$55trn GDP, and CPI was 4.3%EM has US$42trn GDP, and CPI was 6.1%World CPI was 5.1%, down 3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppt, a 2nd monthly uptickDM CPI was 4.3%, down 3.3 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.2pptsIt has moved from a 0.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.8ppt discountEM CPI was 6.1%, down 2.6 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6pptsIt has moved from a 0.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt premiumDeveloped RegionsDM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%DM Americas is the largest region, with US$28trn of GDP and 3.7% CPIDM Europe has US$15trn GDP and 5.2% CPIDM Pacific has US$8trn GDP and 3.9% CPIDM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%DM Americas CPI was 3.7%, down 4.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.4ppt discountDM Europe CPI was 5.2%, down 2.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.1ppt premiumDM Pacific CPI was 3.9%, down 0.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 3.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.2ppt discountEmerging RegionsCPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its riseEM Americas had a small GDP of US$4trn and CPI of 5.4%EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$29trn and 1.4% CPIEM Europe had a small US$4trn GDP and a massive 16.5% CPIEmerging Middle East & Africa had a tiny US$2trn GDP and a high 10.9% CPIFrontier markets had a US$3trn GDP and an extremely high 32.3% CPICPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its riseEM Americas CPI was 5.4%, down 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 1.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.3ppt premiumEM Asia CPI was 1.4%, down 2.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3pptsIt has moved from a 4.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.6ppt discountEM Europe CPI was 16.5%, down 11.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2.1pptsIt has moved from a 20.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 11.4ppt premiumEM ME&A CPI was 10.9%, up 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5.8ppt premiumFrontier CPI was 32.3%, up 6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2pptsIt has moved from a 18.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 27.2ppt premiumDeveloped Countries2nd US CPI uptick; strong 1st uptick in France; Japan and UK steady slide; Germany flatTop five DM countriesUS GDP was US$25trn, CPI of 3.7%Japan US$5trn and 3.1% CPIGermany US$4.3trn and 6.2% CPIUK: US$3.4trn, 6.8%France: US$3trn/4.6%USA CPI was 3.7%, down 4.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 0.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.4ppt discountJapan CPI was 3.1%, up 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 2ppt discountGermany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 0.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premiumUK CPI was 6.8%, down 3.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.2pptsIt has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premiumFrance CPI was 4.6%, down 1.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5pptsIt has moved from a 2.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.5ppt discountEmerging CountriesChina CPI flat after July deflation; India slows; strong rise in Korea; rising in Russia and BrazilChina: US$20trn/0.1%India: US$3.5trn/6.8%Korea: US$1.8trn/3.5%Russia: US$1.8trn/5.2%Brazil: US$1.8trn/4.7%China CPI was 0.1%, down 2.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 5.7ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5ppt discountIndia CPI was 6.8%, down 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6pptsIt has moved from a 1.1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premiumKorea CPI was 3.5%, down 2.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.2pptsIt has moved from a 2.4ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.6ppt discountRussia CPI was 5.2%, down 9.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.9pptsIt has moved from a 6.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.1ppt premiumBrazil CPI was 4.7%, down 4.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6pptsIt has moved from a 0.8ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.4ppt discountDeveloped CountriesHighest CPISweden CPI was 7.6%, down 2.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.8pptsIt has moved from a 1.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.5ppt premiumAustria CPI was 7.5%, down 1.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has doubled its 1.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt premiumUK CPI was 6.8%, down 3.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.2pptsIt has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premiumIreland CPI was 6.4%, down 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5pptsIt has moved from a 0.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.3ppt premiumGermany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 0.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premiumEmerging CountriesHighest CPIArgentina* CPI was 124.4%, up 45.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11pptsIt has moved from a 70.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 119.3ppt premiumTurkey CPI was 60.9%, down 19.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11.3pptsIt has moved from a 72.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 55.8ppt premiumEgypt CPI was 38.2%, up 23.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1pptsIt has moved from a 6.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 33.2ppt premiumPakistan* CPI was 28%, up 0.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9pptsIt has moved from a 19.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 22.9ppt premiumNigeria* CPI was 26.2%, up 5.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.7pptsIt has moved from a 12.5ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 21.1ppt premium*denotes Frontier marketDeveloped CountriesLowest CPISwitzerland CPI was 1.6%, down 1.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 4.6ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.5ppt discountHong Kong CPI was 1.8%, down 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 6.1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.3ppt discountDenmark CPI was 2.4%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.7pptsIt has moved from a 0.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.6ppt discountSpain CPI was 2.7%, down 7.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3pptsIt has moved from a 2.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt discountNetherlands CPI was 3%, down 9.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.5pptsIt has moved from a 4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.1ppt discountEmerging CountriesLowest CPIChina CPI was 0.1%, down 2.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 5.7ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5ppt discountJordan* CPI was 0.9%, down 4.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 2.6ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 4.2ppt discountThailand CPI was 0.9%, down 6.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5pptsIt has moved from a 0.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 4.2ppt discountSaudi Arabia CPI was 2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 5.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.1ppt discountMalaysia CPI was 2.1%, down 2.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a...
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ISMS 31: Global CPI saw 2nd MoM uptick in August
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