It's a bull market (#436)

Simon Shares

• A great research report on Blue Gem covering Renergen (JSE code: REN). What I really like about the report is that Keith shows you all his workings so you can make your own call on his working and decide.
• Spur (JSE code: SUR) were a horror show, no surprise it was the six months to end December with all the various lockdown levels. Two things struck me. They're positioning themselves well for the post-pandemic dining life, dark kitchens, exploring drive-through were feasible. But the biggie was how the company has changed in the last decade or so. It used to be Spur with a little pizza and sushi. But it really is now a collection of brands across different eating experiences and price points. My concern in the short term is a third and fourth wave. We can see as lockdown and alcohol bans get stricter their traffic decreases markedly and I am pretty sure that the rest of 2021 will see at least another two waves of the pandemic with the resulting harder lockdowns.
• Two awesome points from Nerina Visser in an interview I did with her yesterday on MoneywebNOW. Firstly she comments about the saving of dividend tax within a tax-free account. I have run the numbers and over a very long-term that saving is actually more than what one saves on capital gains tax. Secondly, what if you don't have the R36k lump sum to invest? Well, do you have some discretionary ETFs? If yes, sell them, move them into your tax-free account and then continue buying the ETF outside of the tax-free every month for the rest of the year. You get the tax-free benefit from day one.

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It's a bull market

[caption id="attachment_24772" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 weekly chart[/caption]

I was chatting with some friends from around the world about markets. I say it's a bull market, especially locally. They all had a dozen different, and solid, reasons why I was wrong. But they miss one very important point - price.

The simple truth is that markets the world over are at all-time highs and heading higher. We can kick and scream all we want, but price is the truth and the price is heading higher.

Deciding that it is all crazy and heading to cash, or worse taking short positions is a fool's game.

Sure one day the market will peak and somebody will have that Tweet where they called it. But that's not because they're super smart, but because if you call something often enough eventually you'll be right.

Bull markets never feel 100% comfortable, that's the nature of the best. There is always a reason to be sceptical, that's the nature of the beast. But stop stressing and enjoy the ride, that's what bulls are for.

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