Japan's Intervention Failed

On today’s show we’re going to connect three things that might seem completely unrelated: the Japanese yen, United States Treasury bonds, and the interest rate on your next real estate loan.They are more closely connected than you might think.So why should a real estate investor in Dallas, Atlanta, or Phoenix care what happens to the Japanese yen?Because Japan is the largest foreign holder of United States Treasury securities. The latest Treasury data puts Japanese holdings at roughly 1.2 trillion dollars.When Japan wants to defend the yen, it needs to buy yen and sell foreign currency assets. Those reserves include an enormous portfolio of United States government securities.Now, Japan does not necessarily have to dump Treasuries into the open market. In fact, the Federal Reserve has a facility specifically designed to prevent that from happening.It’s called the FIMA Repo Facility. It allows foreign monetary authorities to temporarily exchange Treasury securities for dollars rather than selling those securities outright into the market. The Federal Reserve explicitly says one purpose of the facility is to support the smooth functioning of the Treasury market by providing an alternative source of dollars. The Japanese yen has been under extraordinary pressure. It recently traded near 164 yen to the dollar, a level not seen in roughly four decades. Japan and the United States responded with a rare coordinated intervention designed to strengthen the yen. For a few days it worked. The yen strengthened to around 155. But here we are less than two weeks later, and the yen is back near 159.These interventions are not working. If the yen stabilizes, much of this concern disappears.If it doesn’t, the choices become progressively more uncomfortable.Japan can intervene again. It can raise domestic interest rates more aggressively. It can access dollar liquidity against its Treasury portfolio. Or ultimately, it can sell some foreign assets.Every choice has consequences.We could see bond yields rise just because Japan can't tolerate buying oil in US dollars at 165 Yen to the dollar. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)