JF 4000: Inflation Watch, Fed Dilemma, and Recession Risk with John Chang

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses June inflation data, why tariff impacts haven’t fully appeared in CPI yet, and how companies signal they’ll pass more costs to consumers. He breaks down a weakening labor market, the Fed’s dual mandate, and Wall Street’s high odds of near‑term rate cuts—while warning that cutting into oncoming tariff-driven inflation could force a policy U‑turn. John explores CRE implications across property types (apartments, retail, industrial, office), the role of the 10‑year Treasury, and how uncertainty—not just rates—is throttling hiring and investment. He closes with a medium‑term outlook: transaction velocity likely rises into 2025–26 as dry powder deploys, with localized cap rate compression despite policy opacity. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It’s free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices