Labour, inflation, and tariffs – oh my

Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson dig into the latest US and UK data prints and discuss how labour and inflation trends are affecting their views on the GBP and USD outlook.They look ahead to what we might expect from the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting – and the potential impact on the outlook for EURUSD. And they consider the impact of recent shifts in US trade policy on markets more broadly, and the market whiplash around media reports about Fed Chair Powell’s fate.NB. This episode was recorded on 17 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html