Losing Steam

In this episode, we examine an unsettling mix of economic signals: a seemingly benign inflation print, rumblings in the banking system reminiscent of the pre-crisis era, the first major wave of layoffs, and growing dissent at the Federal Reserve. Markets greeted the latest CPI release with enthusiasm. Yet the details tell a darker story. The dubiously calculated shelter component has become a source of disinflation. Stripped of this measure, consumer prices rose faster than expected. At the same time, liquidity strains are re-emerging. On Wednesday, a record number of banks tapped the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility, a sign that funding pressures are tightening despite official reassurance. Meanwhile, a growing list of firms including UPS, Amazon and Target have announced large layoffs, suggesting that the post-pandemic “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium may be giving way to a harsher “low-hire, high-fire” regime. Finally, disquiet is spreading within the Federal Reserve itself. As policymakers diverge over the timing and scale of future easing, market participants betting on a December cut and several more in 2026 may be disappointed.