PODCAST · business
Mind the Macro
by Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin
Weekly economic insights from Professional Forecasters in under 20 minutes
Episodes
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The Unwelcome Return of Stagflation
This week, we examine the latest labor market and inflation reports, the recent volatility in Treasury yields, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy. September's employment report revealed further signs of a deteriorating labor market. Nonfarm payrolls barely increased, with the…
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Yields Don't Lie
In this episode, recorded on September 24, we discuss the worst day for Treasury yields in 18 months, the latest PMI composite, the escalating conflict with Iran, and Oracle’s dispute with lenders. Treasury note and bond yields suffered their sharpest one day rise in 18 months following a strong...
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Pressure: Bonds, Buildings and the AI Boom
In this episode, recorded on September 18, we discuss the Census Bureau’s latest residential construction report, retail sales, rising Treasury yields, and developments in artificial intelligence. Housing completions fell 12 percent in August from the previous month and were 27 percent below…
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Livin' on a Prayer: The Bond Market Edition
This week, we discuss the latest Employment Report, the Treasury’s $6 billion repurchase operation, the rise in Treasury yields, intervention in the Japanese yen, the war in Iran, and widening CCC credit spreads. While equity markets have remained remarkably stable, bond markets have borne much…
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August 31 Episode
In this episode, we discuss the most recent PCE release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. PCE came in higher than anticipated keeping the Federal Reserve on their toes. In addition, Warsh indicated in his Jackson Hole speech that the Fed needs to be more attentive to it's...
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Back at It!
This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the jobs report, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond buybacks, and the Federal Reserve minutes. July CPI came in below expectations, although much of the relief once again reflected energy prices. With that support likely to fade, we expect...
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Warsh Fumbles, Bonds Tumble
In this episode, we discuss Japan's latest efforts to stabilize the yen, the latest GDP report, and Chair Warsh's most recent press conference. After the yen fell to its weakest level against the dollar in four decades, Japanese policymakers began selling United States Treasuries, pushing the…
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Rising Rates and the Bigger Picture
This week, we examine housing, the labor market, rising interest rate expectations, and our broader investment thesis. The Census Bureau's latest report on new home sales modestly exceeded expectations, but sales remain historically subdued as the housing market continues to slow across much of…
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Economic Fatigue
This week, we examine the latest inflation, consumer, and housing data, along with the sharp increase in stock margin borrowing. While both CPI and PPI came in below expectations, much of the decline was concentrated in energy prices. Given the recent rise in oil prices, those subdued inflation...
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The Headline Illusion Continues
This week, we discuss the PCE report, new home sales, GDP, and PMI. Inflation continues to run well above the Federal Reserve's target. While personal income growth appeared strong, much of the increase reflected a one time government payment. Adjusting for this temporary boost, the savings rate...
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Warsh's Withdrawing Guidance
This week, we discuss recent housing market releases and the Federal Open Market Committee's latest decision under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. Housing starts fell to their lowest level since April 2020, at the onset of the Covid 19 pandemic. Much of the decline was driven by multifamily...
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One Small Step for SpaceX, One Giant Leap for Speculation?
This week, we discuss rising inflation, the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the much anticipated SpaceX initial public offering. Consumer prices continued to accelerate in May, with headline CPI rising 4.2% from a year earlier and core CPI increasing 2.9%. Alternative measures...
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The Rally Meets Reality
In this episode, we discuss the latest labor market releases, deteriorating consumer balance sheets, and Friday's decline in equity markets. While payroll growth exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, the composition of employment gains, the timing of the Memorial…
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Getting Better?
This week, we discuss downward revisions to GDP, persistent inflation and a renewed decline in the savings rate. Real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 was revised down from 2.1% to 1.6%, well below the consensus estimate of 2.2%. Meanwhile, inflation remained uncomfortably high. The PCE...
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Higher Inflation, Higher Yields, Higher Stakes
This week, we discuss a series of perplexing market moves as inflation readings, oil prices, and Treasury yields all moved higher at once. Both headline CPI and PPI surprised to the upside, placing the Federal Reserve and its new Chair, Kevin Warsh, in an increasingly difficult position.…
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Payrolls and Patience
This week, we discuss the Employment Report, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. Although the headline employment figures appeared strong, the underlying composition was less reassuring. Nearly all of the payroll growth came from lower wage…
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The Narrow Road Ahead
This week, we discuss the preliminary release of first quarter 2026 GDP, the PCE inflation report, the FOMC meeting and recent earnings releases, among other developments. Although headline GDP grew by 2%, the details were far less reassuring. Growth was concentrated in healthcare, technology and...
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Behind Blue Skies
This week, we discuss recent macroeconomic releases, including retail sales, pending home sales and the flash composite PMI, as well as Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearings and the war in Iran. At first glance, some of the data appeared to point to stronger growth. Under the hood, however,...
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Dancing in the Dark
This week’s data offered a mixed but telling picture of the American economy, spanning the Beige Book, fresh readings on inflation and housing, and a further climb in equity markets. Housing, often a bellwether of cyclical momentum, continued to soften. Existing home sales fell short of...
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All That Glisters Is Not Gold
This week’s data offered a familiar tension: reassuring headlines paired with more concerning underlying dynamics. The latest employment report appeared strong at first glance. Payrolls exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate declined. Yet the details tell a different story. Research from...
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Flows over Fundamentals
This week, we examine rising strains in subprime credit, an end of quarter market rally that may say more about flows than fundamentals, and a deteriorating situation in the Middle East, along with our normal overview of macroeconomic releases. Delinquencies in subprime debt have climbed to their...
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The Gathering Storm
This week turns on a series of disquieting signals across markets, from unusual moves in interest rate futures to mounting strains in private credit and renewed geopolitical risk surrounding Kharg Island, all against the backdrop of a sharp decline in equities. Uncertainty has come to dominate…
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Inflation, Iran, and the Fed That Cannot Cut
This week’s discussion surveys a more troubling turn in the data, as rising producer prices, falling new home sales, and a sharp steepening of the yield curve combine to reinforce a narrative of stagflation and a possible recession. Producer prices in February surprised to the upside and point to...
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Oil's Whiplash and Stagflation's Squeeze
This week, we discuss the war in Iran and a run of discouraging economic data, including falling payrolls, rising inflation and a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. The most dramatic market development was in oil. Prices surged to $120 per barrel early Monday before plunging to $90 by…
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Inflation, Iran and the Ghost of Executive Life
This week we examine the implications of the war in Iran and the rising uncertainty now weighing on financial markets. Since our previous episode, titled “Inflation Intensifies Amid Credit Cracks,” the inflation outlook has deteriorated sharply as the conflict has pushed energy prices higher. In...
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Inflation Intensifies Amid Credit Cracks
On this week’s episode, we examine signs that inflationary pressures are proving more stubborn than many had hoped. January’s Producer Price Index surprised to the upside, with headline prices rising 0.5 per cent over the month and the measure excluding food and energy increasing 0.8 per cent. We...
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Stagflation Creeps Back Into View
This week the stagflation theme refused to fade. On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. Headline and core PCE rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. More troubling than the levels was the recent…
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Markets Catch On to the One Legged Stools
This week we examine the reassuring headlines in the employment and inflation reports, set against weakening retail sales and housing activity. On the surface, payroll growth and a softer CPI print suggested resilience. A closer look told a more fragile story. Nearly all net payroll gains were...
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Earnings Beat, Shares Retreat
This week, we examine signs of economic cooling and a more demanding market backdrop. Private labor market reports from ADP, Revelio Labs, and Challenger, Gray and Christmas point to slowing hiring and softer demand for workers. Motor vehicle sales also weakened, and we argue the slowdown…
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More Red Flags
This week, we address a broad set of developments shaping the macro landscape: Japan’s government bond strains, the weakening dollar, the state of the housing market, rising inflation risks, a fall in the consumer savings rate, and the key takeaways from the January FOMC press conference. We also...
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Beneath the CPI Calm
In this episode, recorded on Friday, January 16, we examine the inflation outlook and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial markets. A superficially benign headline CPI reading obscures a firmer underlying inflationary trend that is likely to assert itself later in the year. Other...
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More Questions Than Answers
This week, we examine a run of key labor market releases alongside the latest GDP and productivity data. The Employment Situation report showed nonfarm payroll growth coming in below expectations, capping off the weakest year for job creation since 2020 and the weakest non-recessionary year since...
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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
In this episode, recorded on December 19, 2025, we examine the latest retail sales, employment, and CPI reports. Retail sales were flat on the month, underscoring a continued pullback in consumer spending as sentiment deteriorates and labor-market momentum slows. The employment report was more...
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The Monetary Mission Impossible
On this December 12 episode, we turn to the latest JOLTS report and, more importantly, the decisions and tone emerging from the Federal Open Market Committee. Job openings surprised modestly on the upside, yet were largely unchanged from the previous month. The more telling signal came from the...
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Strengthening Signs of Stagflation
On this December 5th episode, we examine a raft of data releases that together sketch a disquieting portrait of the US economy. The latest ADP report showed the economy losing 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, while the Challenger Job Cuts report registered more than 70,000 layoffs—only the...
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Double Trouble: Payrolls and Processors (Nov 21 Episode)
On this November 21st episode, we examine the government’s first employment report since the shutdown. The headline payroll figures were strong, but nearly every detail beneath them was troubling. Most of the job growth came from three sectors that are more vulnerable to economic swings and that...
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Stress Rising in the Shadows (Nov. 14 episode)
On this November 14 episode we examine a market that is drifting without a single unifying negative narrative yet is steadily accumulating reasons for concern. High yield spreads are widening, and option adjusted spreads on CCC rated debt never returned to their pre Liberation Day lows.…
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Signs of Weakness in the Shutdown Fog
This November 7, 2025 podcast opens with a sober look at a labor market that is showing clear signs of strain, despite the absence of governmental data due to the shutdown. The latest figures from Challenger Gray and Christmas show that announced layoffs now exceed one million so far this year, a...
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Losing Steam
In this episode, we examine an unsettling mix of economic signals: a seemingly benign inflation print, rumblings in the banking system reminiscent of the pre-crisis era, the first major wave of layoffs, and growing dissent at the Federal Reserve. Markets greeted the latest CPI release with...
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The Bear Narrative: The Fast After the Feast
In this episode, we take a different tack. We begin with the latest inflation figures, which offer little comfort to policymakers, before turning to the our bear case for the equity markets. From the pandemic-era flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus to the abrupt tightening that followed in…
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The Beige and the Bruised
In this episode, we dissect the latest Beige Book, which paints an increasingly uneven portrait of the American economy. Reports from the Federal Reserve’s districts point to softening retail demand, particularly among lower- and middle-income households, and to mounting strains in sectors such…
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Toil and Trouble
While the government shutdown has temporarily silenced the flow of official macroeconomic data, other warning lights are flashing red. High-yield spreads are widening, loan-loss provisions are climbing across the banking sector, and negative revisions to corporate profits continue to erode...
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Weakness in the Labor Market: Confirmed!
In this episode, we discuss the weakness in the ADP report, Challenger Report, and JOLTS report in the context of the overall macroeconomic backdrop.
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Mixed Signals: Housing & Regional Fed Presidents
Markets were cheered this week by stronger-than-expected new home sales. We are less impressed. The data are notoriously volatile and often revised, offering at best a hazy snapshot of the housing market. More telling, perhaps, is the discord within the Federal Reserve. Regional presidents have...
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Highs that Haunt: Margin and Markets
In this episode, we unpack the latest FOMC meeting, the shifting dynamics in housing, Dow Theory signals, and the surge in margin borrowing. The Fed appears poised to cut rates three times in 2025, and for now, fears about its independence remain overblown. Yet the market backdrop is uneasy…
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Rising Inflation and Unemployment
Dan joins us again to discuss the implications of the massive negative revisions to nonfarm payrolls for the period April 2024 to March 2025. In addition, we discuss recent rising CPI figures and the conundrum facing the Federal Reserve; namely, the conflict in its inflation and employment mandates.
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Dousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the Portfolio (September 5, 2025)
We trimmed the portfolio’s risk profile earlier this week,though the fund remains fully invested in equities. In March and April 2025, we shifted the portfolio toward higher-beta sectors, reducing positions in defensive areas such as healthcare while increasing allocations to more volatile...
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Powell Pivot: August 28, 2025
We discuss Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the housing market, and the implications of President Trump's potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
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Dear Chair Powell - Are you Listening?
On August 21st, we sat down with Dan Roberts to record this episode—just a day before Jerome Powell took to the stage at Jackson Hole. We wagered he would sound dovish. He did. The Fed chair even raised the specter of wage-price spirals, a subject we had dissected ourselves only hours earlier.…
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Signs of a Slowdown But Still Too Early to Sell
In this episode, we feature our first guest who was the perfect first to the show. Dan Roberts, PhD was an economist with the Ronald Reagan Administration in the 1980s, and more recently, the head of Global Fixed Income at MacKay Shields, where he was the portfolio manager for the largest...
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Mind the Macro have?
Mind the Macro currently has 100 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Mind the Macro about?
Weekly economic insights from Professional Forecasters in under 20 minutes
How often does Mind the Macro release new episodes?
Mind the Macro has 100 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to Mind the Macro?
You can listen to Mind the Macro on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts Mind the Macro?
Mind the Macro is created and hosted by Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin.
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