“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater

until midnight NYC time. This article was collaboratively written by: Nuño Sempere, Brian Yu, Kati Conen, Alex Lyzhov, Jaeho Lee and 30+ other contributors. Those of us who are in the US are going to sleep, but the document continues being available and freely editable here, and by the time US readers wake up many new developments may have arisen. Last week, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The previous day saw an escalation of tensions and a breakdown of dialogue around the nuclear programme. Today, Israel struck Iran, with known sites being Tabriz, Tehran, Natanz, Kermanshah, Arak, Isfahan, Sanandaj, Ilam, Ahvaz (provincial capital of Khuzestan, Iran's oil-producing province), Chazabeh border crossing in Khuzestan. Israel has aimed for both Iran's nuclear program and its leadership. Although this is a greatly escalatory step, our sense is that this will play out over [...] ---Outline:(02:43) Likely developments(08:02) Markets and Prediction Markets(09:41) Live questions(13:49) Worst-case scenarios(16:15) International Reactions(17:45) Possible actions(18:32) What are some good signals that were right/are useful to look at(19:26) License for this doc: MIT. --- First published: June 13th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/making-sense-of-israels-strike-on --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.