March 23rd: Countdown to Trump’s 48-Hour Iran Ultimatum

Wall Street recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.51% to a six-month low and breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Nasdaq shed 1.88%, the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.24%, and every major index now carries a “Strong Sell” technical signal on the daily and hourly timeframes. Oil surged 4.55% with Brent above $112 a barrel — up more than 50% since the Iran war began on 28 February — while gold recorded its worst week since 1983, falling 10.4% to $4,494 an ounce as safe haven flows abandoned the metal in favour of the dollar and US Treasuries. Then came the weekend escalation: President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deadline falls during Monday’s session — and Iran has vowed to retaliate against US and Gulf energy, water, and IT infrastructure if struck.Key Takeaways01The S&P 500 fell 1.51% on Friday to a six-month low, completing its fourth straight weekly decline and breaking below the 200-day moving average — the index is now down roughly 4.5% year-to-date.02Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum over the weekend threatening to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the deadline arrives during Monday’s Asian trading session.03Brent crude closed above $112 a barrel — up more than 50% since the war started — as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with no US-escorted commercial tanker yet making the passage.04Gold recorded its worst week in more than 40 years, falling 10.4% to $4,494 an ounce, as the dollar and US Treasuries displaced it as the primary safe haven amid surging inflation expectations.05Markets have now fully priced out rate cuts for 2026 and are beginning to price modest hike probabilities — the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.38%, its highest level since last summer.06The ASX 200 fell 0.82% on Friday and is down 2.19% over five days, with all technical signals on “Strong Sell” across 1-hour, 1-day, and 1-week timeframes — futures point lower for Monday’s open.